Tour de France 2018 stage 5: Lorient > Quimper 204,5 km

[120mmStem]

Bala

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

I doubt Alaphilippe will have freedom to get away unmarked. He's GC calibre and other GC contenders will go after him.

I would be astonished if any GC man thinks of Alaphilippe as a GC rival or even as slightly GC relevant. He may well be chased by GC men if he goes but that’s more likely to be because they see a chance for the stage (a Valverde, a Martin etc) or because they think getting away with him would be a chance to gain a few seconds.

A GC rider would definitely go with Alaphilippe. If it’s Porte, Froome, Bardet they would work with him for time at the expense of stage win chances. If it’s Martin or Valverde, they would work with him, but the stage win would be in play.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Benoot ftw..

 

[Old&slow]

Re:

Benoot ftw..

Lotto will make a deacon in the morning if Benoot will ride tomorrow. Unfortunately, he does not appear able to contest the stage.

 

[skippo12]

Re:

Benoot ftw..

I am happy if he finishes inside the time limit. I hope he recovers from his injuries and can go for a stage in week 3.
He looked really bad after the crash...covered in blood and obviously hurt.

 

[thehog]

Re:

Fernando Gavaria wit ha hattrick.

Nah, it’s got ALAPHILIPPE written all over it and taking yellow on time bonuses.

 

[bambino]

Feels currently that Sky is going to make Moscon and Kwiat to pull rentless pace in the climb with 35km to go to reduce the peloton significantly and even put some GC contenders into trouble. Selective GC group to sprint to finish. Valverde or Alaphilippe winning, Quitana, Landa and Nibs losing some seconds.

 

[Robert5091]

Côte de Menez Quelerc’h topped after 159,5 km - bit too far out to go for the win, but it should split up the peloton -

 

[bambino]

Re:

Côte de Menez Quelerc’h topped after 159,5 km - bit too far out to go for the win, but it should split up the peloton -

Absolutely. Way too long for puncheurs like Sagan/GVA/Gilbert to go full speed for the whole climb. Thus I think selective Sky train with Moscon/Kwiat or even Bernal burying themselves to create significant selection.

Need to remember GT difference to one day classics. The heavy boys have already 4 racing days in their legs including pretty tough TTT.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

Côte de Menez Quelerc’h topped after 159,5 km - bit too far out to go for the win, but it should split up the peloton -

Absolutely. Way too long for puncheurs like Sagan/GVA/Gilbert to go full speed for the whole climb. Thus I think selective Sky train with Moscon/Kwiat or even Bernal burying themselves to create significant selection.

Need to remember GT difference to one day classics. The heavy boys have already 4 racing days in their legs including pretty tough TTT.

Probably they can get split peloton and leave some "heavy boys" behind in case they are willing to burn they doms 35 km from the finish, in the stage like this. But for what reason? To get rid of "heavy riders"? No f...g way. We have two very difficult stages before the first rest day.

The only chance that some teams will go crazy here is if some GC have some problem, flat mechanical, especially Sky is vulnerable.

 

[The Hegelian]

Yeah, I think most GC teams will be thinking of the Mur-de-Bretange, and ride this stage defensively.

I'm sure QS will have a plan though, to put one of Gilbert/Jungels/Alaphillipe in yellow. Will be quite interesting on that front - but I think GVA can make the selection. Sunweb were also awesome tactically last year - maybe they'll try something to have Matthews in yellow after the Mur?

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

Côte de Menez Quelerc’h topped after 159,5 km - bit too far out to go for the win, but it should split up the peloton -

Absolutely. Way too long for puncheurs like Sagan/GVA/Gilbert to go full speed for the whole climb. Thus I think selective Sky train with Moscon/Kwiat or even Bernal burying themselves to create significant selection.

Need to remember GT difference to one day classics. The heavy boys have already 4 racing days in their legs including pretty tough TTT.

Probably they can get split peloton and leave some "heavy boys" behind in case they are willing to burn they doms 35 km from the finish, in the stage like this. But for what reason? To get rid of "heavy riders"? No f...g way. We have two very difficult stages before the first rest day.

The only chance that some teams will go crazy here is if some GC have some problem, flat mechanical, especially Sky is vulnerable.

Sorry for the misunderstanding. This climb will only burn one of Kwiat/Moscon - those 2 will be in shape to ALONE split the peloton in such climb. Look at last year TdF for Kwiat or Vuelta for Moscon. They are specialists to set furious space in such climb all the way long. And I'm pretty sure Bernal is in the same level if needed. If they burn one of them here, Sky will still have 5-6 riders in the reduced peloton for the end. Froome is for sure looking for addittional second already against any of his competitors - and G is looking for Yellow.

 

[Robert5091]

After the sprint after 92,5 km I would expect "every man and his dog" will fight to be near the front. What happens if G gaps Froome, does he wait? Same for LRP & GvA? Expect the last 25 km to be fast and furious. With Bardet's team 1 man down & him down on GC, I would expect hin to try for any seconds he can claw back. He did n't spend the Spring getting covered in mud just for fun!

 

[SKSemtex]

Re:

Yeah, I think most GC teams will be thinking of the Mur-de-Bretange, and ride this stage defensively.

I'm sure QS will have a plan though, to put one of Gilbert/Jungels/Alaphillipe in yellow. Will be quite interesting on that front - but I think GVA can make the selection. Sunweb were also awesome tactically last year - maybe they'll try something to have Matthews in yellow after the Mur?

Nobody will give GVA in yellow 100 m of free space. Probably if there is no cobble stage.

 

[bambino]

Re:

Yeah, I think most GC teams will be thinking of the Mur-de-Bretange, and ride this stage defensively.

I'm sure QS will have a plan though, to put one of Gilbert/Jungels/Alaphillipe in yellow. Will be quite interesting on that front - but I think GVA can make the selection. Sunweb were also awesome tactically last year - maybe they'll try something to have Matthews in yellow after the Mur?

While an awesome murito, the Mur-de-Bretagne is actually quite short in terms of real climbing. The +6% section is only about 1km and the whole climb is about 2km with last 800m more or less false flat. I see tomorrow much more suited to classic specialists than today and expect less GC firework tomorrow compared today. Today is way harder than tomorrow in general.

 

[SKSemtex]

If I did not see the TTT I would bet a fortune on Sagan today. But he really looks "very heavy" this summer.
I think it is still his stage to lose but I would be not surprised if things go wrong today.

 

[Simurgh]

Re:

Question to the OP: where do you get the detailed stage maps?

At the official website, e.g.

https://www.letour.fr/en/stage-6

And scroll down and press the button "Download map"

 

[Blanco]

Re:

I doubt Alaphilippe will have freedom to get away unmarked. He's GC calibre and other GC contenders will go after him.
Should a small group make to the finish, it won't consist of the big names. It's the nature of GT racing... the teams are ready and strong enough to mark the moves.
The big names might be seen battling out from reduced bunch at the finish.

He's not and they won't. But other possible stage candidates will, like Sagan Van Avermaet, Matthews, Colbrelli...

 

[SKSemtex]

I think DD should make this stage their priority as EBH (Slagter) is this is probably their best chance to get the stage this tour.

 

[rghysens]

This would have been a stage for Bennoot, but well,...

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Côte de Menez Quelerc’h topped after 159,5 km - bit too far out to go for the win, but it should split up the peloton -

Absolutely. Way too long for puncheurs like Sagan/GVA/Gilbert to go full speed for the whole climb. Thus I think selective Sky train with Moscon/Kwiat or even Bernal burying themselves to create significant selection.

Need to remember GT difference to one day classics. The heavy boys have already 4 racing days in their legs including pretty tough TTT.

Probably they can get split peloton and leave some "heavy boys" behind in case they are willing to burn they doms 35 km from the finish, in the stage like this. But for what reason? To get rid of "heavy riders"? No f...g way. We have two very difficult stages before the first rest day.

The only chance that some teams will go crazy here is if some GC have some problem, flat mechanical, especially Sky is vulnerable.

Sorry for the misunderstanding. This climb will only burn one of Kwiat/Moscon - those 2 will be in shape to ALONE split the peloton in such climb. Look at last year TdF for Kwiat or Vuelta for Moscon. They are specialists to set furious space in such climb all the way long. And I'm pretty sure Bernal is in the same level if needed. If they burn one of them here, Sky will still have 5-6 riders in the reduced peloton for the end. Froome is for sure looking for addittional second already against any of his competitors - and G is looking for Yellow.

Yeah, they could split the field alright, heavy sprinters and domestiques will drop, but all relevant GC men will still be there, so what's the point then?

 

[bambino]

Because the last km has real chance of creating 5-10 second splits between relevant GC mens in case raced hard with reduced field. There are a few (i.e Nibs) who are notorious of losing time in such finishes if isolated. Froome will start playing the marginal gains track pretty soon and tomorrow is not suitable to that I think. And again... G wants yellow today. It will be either him or Alaphilippe wearing it.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Because the last km has real chance of creating 5-10 second splits between relevant GC mens in case raced hard with reduced field. There are a few (i.e Nibs) who are notorious of losing time in such finishes if isolated. Froome will start playing the marginal gains track pretty soon and tomorrow is not suitable to that I think. And again... G wants yellow today. It will be either him or Alaphilippe wearing it.

But they should drive furious pace for 30-40 km and burn many men, for a very slightly possible time gain? And who guarantees that Froome or Thomas won't lose time in such finale? I wouldn't do that...

My guess is we'll see Bora, QS and BMC on the front.

 

[Gigs_98]

Great OP
I have my doubts about sagan. His sprinting seems to be better than ever but he struggled massively in the TTT. I think the climbs will therefore be too much for him. Maybe he can still contest in a sprint but then I think guys like GVA or alaphilippe have a better chance.

 

[tomorrow]

Great OP
I have my doubts about sagan. His sprinting seems to be better than ever but he struggled massively in the TTT. I think the climbs will therefore be too much for him. Maybe he can still contest in a sprint but then I think guys like GVA or alaphilippe have a better chance.

Well, the TTT might be misleading. After the TTT Sagan admitted he was not feeling well due to 2 reasons, which made each other even worse. He was feeling very hot and he lost his bidon 400m into the TTT. As Sagan is very direct and doesn't tend to hide anything after some stage/race, I would say the TTT was just one day problem.

And of course, he proved many many many times, that even though we stated in this forum he's to big, bulky, ... for some stage, he stayed there only with GC guys. It's like the laws of physics doesn't do make an exception for him. Last year 3rd stage, everybody stated the the finish is to tough for him. Same with the 3rd stage 2 years ago. Then he drops climbers in cat 1 climb while working for Kreuziger. And no to mention some hilly T-A stages where he should have been in gruppeto based on his weight. Hi might not necessarily win today, but he will be there at the finish line with others.