Cookster15 said:
I don't put much faith in week long stage races as a strong guide for Tour winners. Ask Richie Porte.
Bernal is 22 not relevant. Natural progression.
Mas was just 23 before the Vuelta, not relevant.
Roglic relatively new to the sport and still only 29, not relevant.
You have a point on Thomas. But now lighting strikes twice in two years? I don't think so. Even Thomas was 2 years younger than Fuglsang is now.
Fuglsang has been pro since 2006 - 13 years ago. Best GT result 7th in 2013 TdF.
Top 5 would be a good result for Fuglsang. Best in his career. But a podium is doubtful. All the training and periodisation of the grand tour contenders and teams is geared to the big races these days. Sure the sponsors want wins at Dauphine but the TdF is the big fish. That is when everyone is 100%. Not week long races like Dauphine.
Let me ask you a question:
How often do we really see people being levels below the best riders throughout the season to then suddenly winning Tours de France?
That's not often. Nibali and the 2017 Froome is the only rider to really have done something like that in this decade. Everybody else had been firing on all cylinders throughout the season.
I don't give much for that periodisation argument. I know sports scientists think it's all the rave, but statistically speaking, I don't see much evidence pointing to Tour winners periodising their early seasons into invisibility.
In 2018, Thomas won the Dauphiné and would have won both Tirreno and Algarve were it not for a chain loss and a weird tactical situation.
In 2017, Froome got 4th in the Dauphiné which was his best result so far this season but he had the Vuelta in mind.
In 2016, Froome won the Dauphiné and the Herald Sun Tour (LOL) but might also have contested the Romandie win if he didn't puncture at a fatal time on the first mountain stage (he did win a stage from a break and got close on the TT later in the race).
In 2015, Froome won the Dauphiné and the Ruta del Sol (over Contador) and was third in Romandie.
In 2014, Nibali didn't do anything until becoming Italian champion so he doesn't really do my point any favours.
In 2013, Froome won the Dauphiné, Romandie, Critérium International and the Tour of Oman, and he was only beaten in Tirreno by Nibali on the legendary Porto Sant'Elpidio stage where Sagan somehow outclimbed him together with Nibali and Purito.
In 2012, Wiggins won the Dauphiné, Romandie and Paris-Nice and he was third in Algarve.
In 2011, Evans won Romandie and Tirreno and was second in the Dauphiné.
In 2010, Contador won Algarve, Paris-Nice and Castilla y León and was second in the Dauphiné.
In 2009, Contador won Algarve and País Vasco, hungerflatted himself out of winning Paris-Nice and was third in the Dauphiné.
So in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013, the dominant stage racer of the spring also won the Tour, while arguably one of the most dominating spring riders won in 2015, 2016 and 2018.
Tour-winning form rarely comes out of nowhere.