Tour de France 2020 | Rest day 2 talk (and poll)

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Who will the 2020 Tour?

  • Roglic

    Votes: 64 61.0%
  • Pogacar

    Votes: 32 30.5%
  • Uran

    Votes: 3 2.9%
  • Lopez

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Yates

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Porte

    Votes: 3 2.9%
  • Landa

    Votes: 3 2.9%
  • Mas

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Quintana

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Dumoulin

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    105
  • Poll closed .
Aug 29, 2020
25
11
110
It seems more and more that the Jumbots are in part there to bluff. They are intimidating, they are pretending that Roglic is not vulnerable, but he is.
They are setting a very high pace but not one that could not be broken.
Landa has Bilbao and Caruso and he could use them on the Madeleine to put Roglic under pressure there already, and then try a longer attack on la Loze. Pogacar, smart rider that he is, can use this and take the stage.
But maybe Landa won't do that. Maybe Bahrain is happy to hang on and does not want the punchier guys to use their great domestiques. Then nothing will happen, Porog will win and some other guy will take third.
I can't see any other stage now being decisive. If Pogacar does not get within 15 seconds of Roglic until PdBF he does not have a chance. Especially since he's going to have a mechanical there right after he changed bikes.
Jumbo + Roglic reminds me more and more of Liquigas + Basso in the 2012 Giro
Setting a pace that deters movements and at the same time is who buy the bluff... The prime objective is to get into the "comfort zone" with as many team-mates as possible so nobody wants to be the first to attack... so all these "contenders" are just looking pretty bad
 
Reactions: BlueRoads
I dont mind tbh, I don't like seeing people not make the timelimit.
I think it's punitive to riders who can actually get over mountains.

Instead of a much more open race, or perhaps chances for lesser pure sprinterse, the fastest dudes just make the time cut anyway cause the time limit on a transition stage is 55 minutes.

It also takes out an entire possible dimension of strategy and thus incentive to race and drop rivals or helpers of rivals OOT to gain an advantage on later stages.
 
Jumbo + Roglic reminds me more and more of Liquigas + Basso in the 2012 Giro
Setting a pace that deters movements and at the same time is who buy the bluff... The prime objective is to get into the "comfort zone" with as many team-mates as possible so nobody wants to be the first to attack... so all these "contenders" are just looking pretty bad
But at the end he strikes (or tries to) in the last 500m... in his best Purito style
 
Roglic is the winner as he has a TT to come in which he will easily gain 30 s on Pogachar even if he loses 30 s on stage 17. Plus UAE haven't got a team with 2 abandons and 1 injured. it is not possible to defend even if he gets yellow on stage 17. The other are already racing for 3rd spot with Uran and Porte the favs due to the TT. Watch Uran get a podium after not being visible thru out the race. Final expected placings 1. Roglic 2. Pogachar 3. Uran 4 Porte
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
Realistically, it's probably gonna be Roglic. But my god do I hope we at least get a proper battle. If everyone just waits for the final 500m of the Col de la Loze before rolling over the Glières holding hands that would be such a shame.
I just really hope anyone will be willing try something somewhat bold. Maybe Bernal attacking on the Madeleine, some early carnage on stage 18, anything. I just don't want a repeat of the last week in 2016 where you also had tiny time gaps between most contenders (except for Froome who was out of reach), everyone had a realistic chance of gaining positions but instead everyone was happy with where they were and did nothing.
 
I'm wondering what makes people think Roglic will take time on Pogacar in the ITT considering that Slovenia's current ITT champion is Pogacar. Am I missing something? Was there a mechanical, crash or anything abnormal in that race other than the short distance that makes everyone ignore that result?
 
Reactions: red_flanders
Realistically, it's probably gonna be Roglic. But my god do I hope we at least get a proper battle. If everyone just waits for the final 500m of the Col de la Loze before rolling over the Glières holding hands that would be such a shame.
I just really hope anyone will be willing try something somewhat bold. Maybe Bernal attacking on the Madeleine, some early carnage on stage 18, anything. I just don't want a repeat of the last week in 2016 where you also had tiny time gaps between most contenders (except for Froome who was out of reach), everyone had a realistic chance of gaining positions but instead everyone was happy with where they were and did nothing.
Reckon it's gonna be simply holding hands until the final 5km before Pogacar drops the hammer and we see if Roglic is up for it. That said the pace might be quite fast cause I still think Jumbo will still ride pace on Col de la Loze cause they always blindly look at what Skineos have done.
 
I think from the experience of the TDF especially this one, it would be better to go with 2 leader strategy instead of one. Crashes and sudden loss of form are becoming common so much that even striking for podium is difficult. The 2nd leader can be a GC or sprinter or a stage hunter with free role as backup if something goes wrong. A stage win can take the pressure off while also providing some tactical opportunities. Only Ineos and Jumbo can afford a full train. Since they are going to set the pace, the other teams don't need a full train.
Of course the leaders have to be chosen carefully unlike Trek where both leaders lost time together. EF, JV, UAE have done that to perfection.
 
I think from the experience of the TDF especially this one, it would be better to go with 2 leader strategy instead of one. Crashes and sudden loss of form are becoming common so much that even striking for podium is difficult. The 2nd leader can be a GC or sprinter or a stage hunter with free role as backup if something goes wrong. A stage win can take the pressure off while also providing some tactical opportunities. Only Ineos and Jumbo can afford a full train. Since they are going to set the pace, the other teams don't need a full train.
Of course the leaders have to be chosen carefully unlike Trek where both leaders lost time together. EF, JV, UAE have done that to perfection.
I have honestly always like the Astana strategy of having domestiques who can also be stagehunters.
 
I'm wondering what makes people think Roglic will take time on Pogacar in the ITT considering that Slovenia's current ITT champion is Pogacar. Am I missing something? Was there a mechanical, crash or anything abnormal in that race other than the short distance that makes everyone ignore that result?
That TT was quite specific. First of all, it was shorter. First 8km was a 7-8% climb with the middle section at around 10%. I have driven up it many times with a car and it gets really steep in places. Then around 8km of false flat (2%) on the plateau to the finish line (Pokljuka, where the biathlon world cup takes place). Roglič started after Pogačar and got slightly worse weather (the rain became worse just as he started). Then Roglič himself stated that his longest interval he did in training for the past two months was 4 minutes, so he quickly realised this is not going to happen. And the last thing that might be the most important. Pogačar started on a road bike and changed the bike on the top while Primož did the whole TT on a TT bike (only Griescha Niermann was there for him in the car and they simply couldn't afford a bike change).

There were no real time checks (only official finish line time), but people by the road stopwatched the times and Pogačar already had 40 seconds of a gap on Rogla after just 4 kilometers (the steepest part of the climb) which increased even further towards the top (some say around 50 seconds). Pogačar lost around 10 seconds with the bike change and then further 25-30 seconds on the flat part, finally finishing around 8 or 9 seconds ahead of Roglič.

The Tour TT has 15km of flat and another 15km of false flat (2-3%). And then the final climb. That means Roglič could gain around a minute on the first 30km. And now he probably has trained longer intervals (haha) and probably will switch bikes. So again I don't think he will lose much to Tadej on the climb.

For a good comparison where they were both in top form, look at the Vuelta TT last year. A bit less climbing in that one but simillar lenght (identical even). Pogačar started well on the cilmb, losing around 20 seconds to Roglič but then faded slightly on the flatter part, finishing 1:30 down at the end. So in the end, Pogačar is better than he was last year, it is the last day which Primož doesn't really like as tiredness can prevent him from doing the best TT, but I still think he has the edge in that TT against Pogi. If he comes to the last TT in yellow I think he takes the Tour. If not, well, then things get interesting (see last stage of Tirreno 2019 or Giro 2019 for two TTs where he had to make up time - and did so).
 
I voted for Pogacar cause I'm supporting him (though Roglic's chances for victory seem a bit higher now). A lot of cyclists will be tired in the 3rd week so maybe JV will be weaker than they've been so far and not able to fully control the situation. Meribel stage will be very demanding (with two mamooth climbs of 1600 m and 1700 m). Even if they are still strong there I feel that the peleton may explode the next day (stage 18th) as a result of cumulative fatigue: there could be more chaos and a long-range attack on Glieres is not ruled out. That being said, I still think that Meribel can do a lot of damage, especially last part of the climb. The Tour has never had a more demanding MTF (even considering Mont Ventoux and Col du Portet).
 
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I think it's punitive to riders who can actually get over mountains.

Instead of a much more open race, or perhaps chances for lesser pure sprinterse, the fastest dudes just make the time cut anyway cause the time limit on a transition stage is 55 minutes.

It also takes out an entire possible dimension of strategy and thus incentive to race and drop rivals or helpers of rivals OOT to gain an advantage on later stages.
Exactly.
I also think the decrease of the time limit can help the Tour in terms of GT battle as well. Some "classic" type teams could completely change the dynamics of GC battle if they go nuts from km 0 in order to put some pure sprinters OOT.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
That TT was quite specific. First of all, it was shorter. First 8km was a 7-8% climb with the middle section at around 10%. I have driven up it many times with a car and it gets really steep in places. Then around 8km of false flat (2%) on the plateau to the finish line (Pokljuka, where the biathlon world cup takes place). Roglič started after Pogačar and got slightly worse weather (the rain became worse just as he started). Then Roglič himself stated that his longest interval he did in training for the past two months was 4 minutes, so he quickly realised this is not going to happen. And the last thing that might be the most important. Pogačar started on a road bike and changed the bike on the top while Primož did the whole TT on a TT bike (only Griescha Niermann was there for him in the car and they simply couldn't afford a bike change).

There were no real time checks (only official finish line time), but people by the road stopwatched the times and Pogačar already had 40 seconds of a gap on Rogla after just 4 kilometers (the steepest part of the climb) which increased even further towards the top (some say around 50 seconds). Pogačar lost around 10 seconds with the bike change and then further 25-30 seconds on the flat part, finally finishing around 8 or 9 seconds ahead of Roglič.

The Tour TT has 15km of flat and another 15km of false flat (2-3%). And then the final climb. That means Roglič could gain around a minute on the first 30km. And now he probably has trained longer intervals (haha) and probably will switch bikes. So again I don't think he will lose much to Tadej on the climb.

For a good comparison where they were both in top form, look at the Vuelta TT last year. A bit less climbing in that one but simillar lenght (identical even). Pogačar started well on the cilmb, losing around 20 seconds to Roglič but then faded slightly on the flatter part, finishing 1:30 down at the end. So in the end, Pogačar is better than he was last year, it is the last day which Primož doesn't really like as tiredness can prevent him from doing the best TT, but I still think he has the edge in that TT against Pogi. If he comes to the last TT in yellow I think he takes the Tour. If not, well, then things get interesting (see last stage of Tirreno 2019 or Giro 2019 for two TTs where he had to make up time - and did so).
Great analysis. Still it has to be noted that Roglic probably won't feel comfortable going into that final TT with a lead of only a few seconds. Even with the time gaps as they are now Roglic might not be able to afford a mechanical, a crash or something of the sort.
 
The ITT will come down to who has the best legs and most energy left in the tank. Your ability to race against the clock comes second to that here. It is not just an ordinary ITT, where the one who is usually the better one at it wins.

If I were Pog I would see how Roglic goes on stage 16 and 17. I would be careful to go to deep or try many attacks. Maybe just try it at the end of the stage, if Roglic dont show weakness before it, and then save as much as I can for stage 18. Because that one has potential for a lot of things. I dont think he wants to be in the lead and having his team trying to control that one. He will have a hard time if he is in the lead going into that stage with a weak team.
 

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