Tour de France 2020 | Rest day 2 talk (and poll)

Who will the 2020 Tour?

  • Roglic

    Votes: 64 61.0%
  • Pogacar

    Votes: 32 30.5%
  • Uran

    Votes: 3 2.9%
  • Lopez

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Yates

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Porte

    Votes: 3 2.9%
  • Landa

    Votes: 3 2.9%
  • Mas

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Quintana

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Dumoulin

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    105
  • Poll closed .
Reactions: Sandisfan
Jul 3, 2018
10
11
1,560
My predictions are:
  1. Roglič wins it but
  2. Pogačar comes close and wins the ITT
  3. Uran has a bad day and MAL gets on the podium only to lose a huge amount of time in the ITT
  4. Where Porte finally gets his podium after a solid ITT
  5. Landa finally starts attacking but too little too late and ends up 4th again
 
It clearly looks like a 2 horse race between Roglic and Pogi. That said, Roglic has been flying since races have restarted and I expect some riders to crumble in the 3rd week after 2 hard weeks of racing.
I expect attacks on the final 5km of Col de la Loze, when it's so steep that the team strength doesn't matter, no long range attacks from the top 8 on that stage.
Stage 18 on the other hand could be total chaos and the one where people really loose minutes.
Of course I want my boy Landa to gain minutes with a big mountain raid on that stage, but that doesn't sound too realistic atm, but who knows.
 
GC is still relatively tight till the 14th place (Caruso @ 9'02") but there's huge drop to the 15th place (Barguil @ 32'27").

The 20th in GC is almost an hour down, which is very odd in contemporary cycling. Last time the 20th rider in the Tour GC was more than an hour down was in 2015, and you have to go back to 1997 to find another Tour like that.
This might be related to the lockdown period, with many riders lacking the racing miles to sustain efforts for several stages in a row. Any other explanation?
 
It clearly looks like a 2 horse race between Roglic and Pogi. That said, Roglic has been flying since races have restarted and I expect some riders to crumble in the 3rd week after 2 hard weeks of racing.
I expect attacks on the final 5km of Col de la Loze, when it's so steep that the team strength doesn't matter, no long range attacks from the top 8 on that stage.
Stage 18 on the other hand could be total chaos and the one where people really loose minutes.
Of course I want my boy Landa to gain minutes with a big mountain raid on that stage, but that doesn't sound too realistic atm, but who knows.
Col de La Loze is 10% average final 5 km weve seen trains on far harder climbs than that
 
Pinot to summon the power of his goats and pull not only an Oscar Pereiro on stage 16, but a Robobasso on the following stage. By stage 18 you would think he would be tired but he does a Floyd Landis. He then pretends to rest on stage 19 only it is a trap and he channels his inner De Gendt and Cummings to win the stage. Stage 20 comes around and he becomes Der Kaiser with a blazing performance but that still isn't enough time to gain the lead, down by 10 seconds. Stage to Paris is usually ceremonial but today Pinot does a Vino to gain back the time he needs and wins yellow, green, polka dots, and most combative with 5 stage wins.
The forum is in disbelief, Tonton goes missing but comes back fine, and Pinot establishes that he is not mentally weak or fragile. ;)
 
1-2% still matters IMO. But mostly Jumbo should snail pace the stage to make it fresh Roglic + bots vs fresh Pog and he should be fine
I don't see how a snail pace will be allowed. Landa had 2 team mates on the final climb with a decent pace, so maybe he'd have 3 or 4 with a snail pace over the Madeleine. If there are 50 riders still together 5kms into Loze, why would Landa not send riders forward to at least make the pace half decent? He is currently 7th, and not a great time trialler; zero reason for he and his team to just sit in the group giving 90% effort.
 
Yes, but the benefit that you get from drafting/the train at that gradient (not to mention the altitude) shouldn't really matter.
It's not really drafting so much as psychological benefits such as the ability to control the pace. I know that when I've been tackling those climbs -- say 5 km at 10 percent -- I'm right near my anaerobic limit, so if I find a slight decrease in gradient I can grab a quick pause in cadence, stand up, sit down, drink etc. And there's also something mentally comforting about looking down at the cadence at the rider in front of you, especially if it's a teammate.
Also don't forget the reverse effect on the competition -- I suspect someone like MAL or Porte yesterday probably say four TJV riders and thought, no way can I make a successful attack. Look what happened to A Yates -- Dumoulin just rode him down in about 30 seconds, and that was that.
 
Unless one of the Slovenians has a jour sans then I think we just have an interesting race for the last podium spot.

Uran vs MAL vs Yates vs Porte vs Landa.

The ITT might push it towards Uran/Porte but Yates might make an attack stick and win a stage.
 
I don't see how a snail pace will be allowed. Landa had 2 team mates on the final climb with a decent pace, so maybe he'd have 3 or 4 with a snail pace over the Madeleine. If there are 50 riders still together 5kms into Loze, why would Landa not send riders forward to at least make the pace half decent? He is currently 7th, and not a great time trialler; zero reason for he and his team to just sit in the group giving 90% effort.
Big difference between setting the pace and hanging on for dear life. If Pogacars and Landa have their team drill it as hard as possible, I'm not sure they drop Van Aert. Kuss, Rogla and Dumoulin will be below their limit.
 
Yes, Dumo should attack. He's a minute or two too far down to be of real danger, but in a long range effort with Valverde & Quintana the guys in front in the GC need to react, including Pogacar. Roglic can just hang on with Kuss and Bennett. And Van Aert of course.
 
Reactions: savornin
It's not really drafting so much as psychological benefits such as the ability to control the pace. I know that when I've been tackling those climbs -- say 5 km at 10 percent -- I'm right near my anaerobic limit, so if I find a slight decrease in gradient I can grab a quick pause in cadence, stand up, sit down, drink etc. And there's also something mentally comforting about looking down at the cadence at the rider in front of you, especially if it's a teammate.
Also don't forget the reverse effect on the competition -- I suspect someone like MAL or Porte yesterday probably say four TJV riders and thought, no way can I make a successful attack. Look what happened to A Yates -- Dumoulin just rode him down in about 30 seconds, and that was that.
And that's why Adam Yates should be on the podium and the others should not :p
 
Reactions: Bolder
Sep 12, 2017
24
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2,610
As a Dumo fan, I'd love him to attack. He's more of a diesel than an explosive attacker as everyone here knows. And I think JV wants to play it safe, keeping Roglic's main dom at his side in order to reel in attacks by the other contenders. At the moment Dumo looks strong enough to challenge for third place, pity he threw his classification by domming but that's cycling.
I can't see anyone winning much time on Roglic and Pogacar. Can't see Pogacar imploding, Roglic maybe.
 
It seems more and more that the Jumbots are in part there to bluff. They are intimidating, they are pretending that Roglic is not vulnerable, but he is.
They are setting a very high pace but not one that could not be broken.
Landa has Bilbao and Caruso and he could use them on the Madeleine to put Roglic under pressure there already, and then try a longer attack on la Loze. Pogacar, smart rider that he is, can use this and take the stage.
But maybe Landa won't do that. Maybe Bahrain is happy to hang on and does not want the punchier guys to use their great domestiques. Then nothing will happen, Porog will win and some other guy will take third.
I can't see any other stage now being decisive. If Pogacar does not get within 15 seconds of Roglic until PdBF he does not have a chance. Especially since he's going to have a mechanical there right after he changed bikes.
 

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