Tour de France 2020 | Stage 14 (Clermont-Ferrand - Lyon, 194 km)

The third Saturday of the race is very much a transitional stage, sandwiched between two MTFs. Will Bora try to control this for Sagan or do we get another breakaway day?




Start: 13:05
Côte du château d'Aulteribe: 14:04/14:06/14:08
Intermediate sprint: 14:11/14:14/14:16
Col du Béal: 14:53/14:57/15:02
Côte de Courreau: 15:27/15:33/15:39
Côte de la Duchère: 17:31/17:43/17:56
Côte de la Croix-Rousse: 17:38/17:50/18:04
Finish: 17:45/17:57/18:11

It's essentially a beefed-up version of Stage 14 of the 2013 Tour, the last time the race visited Lyon. The final two climbs were the same that day, but the finish line was slightly further and the early climbing was easier; Matteo Trentin won from a big breakaway.
There are a few hills just before the intermediate sprint, which comes early in the stage, most notably the cat.4 Côte du château d'Aulteribe, with some double-digit ramps. Just after the intermediate sprint, an endless uphill to Col du Béal (though not from its hard side) starts.

What follows is a two-stepped descent, interrupted by the cat. 3 Côte de Courreau. There's an easy section as the route traverses the Loire valley, then a long false-flat drag to the Col des Brosses, which has not been categorised. A shallow descent brings the riders to the final climbs in Lyon.


The profile above is a little rough, so I'm also linking the Veloviewer profiles of both climbs. The Côte de la Duchère is somewhat irregular (don't think the first ramp is quite that steep though), the Côte de la Croix Rousse is very consistent at 4-5%.

General classification after Stage 13
  1. Primoz Roglic
  2. Tadej Pogacar + 0.44
  3. Egan Bernal + 0.59
  4. Rigoberto Uran + 1.10
  5. Nairo Quintana + 1.12
  6. Miguel Ángel López + 1.31
  7. Adam Yates + 1.42
  8. Mikel Landa + 1.55
  9. Richie Porte + 2.06
  10. Enric Mas + 2.54
Points classification after Stage 13
  1. Sam Bennett 252
  2. Peter Sagan 186
  3. Bryan Coquard 155
  4. Caleb Ewan 155
  5. Matteo Trentin 146
Mountains classification after Stage 13
  1. Benoît Cosnefroy 36
  2. Marc Hirschi 31
  3. Nans Peters 31
  4. Toms Skujins 24
  5. Quentin Pacher 21
Young riders classification after Stage 13
  1. Tadej Pogacar
  2. Egan Bernal + 0.15
  3. Enric Mas + 2.10
  4. Sergio Higuita + 25.28
  5. Daniel Felipe Martinez + 56.37
Cat 4 just before the intermediate sprint. Difficult enough for Bora to drop Bennett?
It's 1km at 8.4%. Even if they drill it, he'll be halfway up before he's at the back of the peloton, and he'll at worst be in the cars when they get over the top. If they keep the speed up on the descent, they might make it hard for him to get back to the front for the sprint.

Better chance to control the (size of the) break so that there are points available at the finish, and try and shell him over those last 2 cat4s.
So instead of making it a 20km/4% climb (probably Cat 1) they list it as a shorter Cat 2. Looking at the profile it makes zero sense but that´s obviously business as usual when it comes to the mountain classification.
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So instead of making it a 20km/4.5% climb (probably Cat 1) they list it as a shorter Cat 2. Looking at the profile it makes zero sense but that´s obviously business as usual when it comes to the mountain classification.
Most of it is just false flat.

It's only the last 10 k, that you get above 5 % sustained, so in this case, I think the classification makes sense.

If gradients of 3-4 % counted as climbs, half the Tour would have to be categorized ;)
I think the best option for Sagan is to be in the break with a couple of teammates like Oss and Grossschartner.
They lost Muhlberger and Kamna/Schachmann are probably spent after yesterday. I don't think they have the firepower to control a strong break on such terrain.
Quickstep won’t let a break with 3 Bora riders go. Nobody else in the break will work with 3 Bora riders, especially if Sagan is one of them.

With the big long climb and then the 2 short climbs close to the finish, I’m surprised nobody’s made the comparison to Milan San Remo yet. Without seeing how technical the final descent is, I’d imagine whoever gets some sort of gap over that last climb is in with a real chance.
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I think this is classics guys terrain, so not really the likes of De Gendt. More Asgreen, Benoot, Bettiol, etc. (yes, I started from A) Hirschi may fancy another go, though he would prefer a harder stage. If we're talking Swiss, this seems like it'd suit Küng.

Edit: If Sagan wants green, he has to take advantage of this stage. So perhaps the break has less chance than most would think, unless Sagan is in it.
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