Tour de France 2020 | Stage 15 (Lyon - Grand Colombier, 174.5 km)

[Devil's Elbow]

The hardest mountain stage yet, and some might say the hardest in the entire race. There's not much time left to pressure Roglic, the yellow jersey may be a lot closer to being decided after tomorrow.

Map

Profile

Timetable
Start: 12:25
Intermediate sprint: 14:17/14:21/14:26
Montée de la Selle de Fromentel: 15:36/15:45/15:54
Col de la Biche: 16:03/16:14/16:25
Finish at Col du Grand Colombier: 17:11/17:25/17:40

Climbs
The first 100k are almost completely flat, the intermediate sprint will, as a result, be hotly contested once again. If no break goes away before it, there's little time to develop a lead before the climbing starts.
The triptych of Jura climbs has, of course, already been previewed at the Tour de l'Ain last month. The Selle de Fromentel is brutally steep towards the end, and will greatly trim down the peloton.

The Col de la Biche is the least difficult climb of the three, it's the final 7.1k of the profile below.

After this, there's 1k of descent, 1k at 8% to Croix de Famban, and then the actual descent starts. 15 kilometers of flat separate it from the start of the final climb, it's a shame they're not doing the Anglefort side (this would have cut the flat by over half). As it is, the Grand Colombier is easily hard enough to open up big gaps, but not if it's raced as defensively as at the Tour de l'Ain. The climb gets easier towards the end before a steep finish.

General classification after Stage 14

1. Primoz Roglic
2. Tadej Pogacar + 0.44
3. Egan Bernal + 0.59
4. Rigoberto Uran + 1.10
5. Nairo Quintana + 1.12
6. Miguel Ángel López + 1.31
7. Adam Yates + 1.42
8. Mikel Landa + 1.55
9. Richie Porte + 2.06
10. Enric Mas + 2.54

Points classification after Stage 14

1. Sam Bennett 262
2. Peter Sagan 219
3. Matteo Trentin 169
4. Bryan Coquard 162
5. Caleb Ewan 158

Mountains classification after Stage 14

1. Benoît Cosnefroy 36
2. Marc Hirschi 31
3. Nans Peters 31
4. Toms Skujins 24
5. Quentin Pacher 21

Young riders classification after Stage 14

1. Tadej Pogacar
2. Egan Bernal + 0.15
3. Enric Mas + 2.10
4. Sergio Higuita + 25.28
5. Valentin Madouas + 58.35

 

[spalco]

Bora might try to keep it together until the intermediate, maybe with jumbo's help? They've been very selective about which break to let go so far.

Ineos really has to do something i think. This is show up or *** off time for Bernal imo.

 

[Red Rick]

Would have loved this to finish in Culoz and have hade a HC MTF in Pyrenees instead.

 

[Red Rick]

Bora might try to keep it together until the intermediate, maybe with jumbo's help? They've been very selective about which break to let go so far.

Ineos really has to do something i think. This is show up or *** off time for Bernal imo.

Bora wants a big break to go cause Sagan will get beaten by Bennett in this sprint.

 

[Anderis]

I wonder what plans EF have for tomorrow.

You could see today that Martinez and Carthy were ordered to save legs as much as possible. They were totally relaxed to drop as early as Sam Bennett.

 

[TomLPC]

Bernal, Landa, Quintana, Lopez, Porte really need to attack from a ways out here if they have any intention of winning the race, the high road is running out. This stage will likely show who wants to win and who is happy with a good finishing position.

Enough is enough, time to go.

 

[bob.a.feet]

In the Tour de l'Ain Jumbo dominated this stage. They turned a super hard day in the Alps into a 1km sprint, and I imagine they'll be more than happy to do the same again tomorrow. Of course, this time Pogacar will be there.

With all the flat at the beginning I'm not sure a strong climber can take it from the break. This should be decided by the GC guys.

Bernal was weak yesterday but tomorrow I think it will be more like on the Marie Blanque. It is to be expected that Bernal will attack a few times, though I'm not sure he'll be able to drop Roglic. Pogacar will beat Roglic in a sprint for the stage.

 

[Red Rick]

So is there or is there not double points on Grand Colombier

 

[bob.a.feet]

Bernal, Landa, Quintana, Lopez, Porte really need to attack from a ways out here if they have any intention of winning the race, the high road is running out. This stage will likely show who wants to win and who is happy with a good finishing position.

Enough is enough, time to go.

Considering each climb is harder one after the other, I doubt any of the real favourites will go from far out - especially with three more mountain stages to come. Stage 18 is where I imagine someone will risk it all.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Roglic will try his best to keep Pogacar on the podium whilst keeping Bernal in check. We need some other GC contenders to activate attacks but i'm thinking that they're just happy to try and keep their GC position (it's that time of the race and they don't want to lose their top 10 position) and it will just be Bernal trying to attack with Roglic and Pogacar following until the last and win the bonies.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

So is there or is there not double points on Grand Colombier

No, you were right about it being only on Col de la Loze (I double-checked the rulebook since). I stand corrected

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Would have loved this to finish in Culoz and have hade a HC MTF in Pyrenees instead.

Even better if they climbed from Anglefort and descended into Culoz for the finish, so doing the stretch from 151,5 - 136,5km of this profile but in reverse.

This profile, until km9

 

[Red Rick]

Even better if they climbed from Anglefort and descended into Culoz for the finish, so doing the stretch from 151,5 - 136,5km of this profile but in reverse.

This profile, until km9

I'm trying to ask Santa for small things.

I remember how hyped that stage was....

 

[TomLPC]

I'm trying to ask Santa for small things.

I remember how hyped that stage was....

If it's the stage I'm thinking of (2016) the hype soon died down when Ian Stannard led the bunch over the Colombier

 

[Anderis]

In the Tour de l'Ain Jumbo dominated this stage. They turned a super hard day in the Alps into a 1km sprint, and I imagine they'll be more than happy to do the same again tomorrow.

I'm not sure if they really have the power to do so. Bennett, Kuss and Dumoulin are all a bit weaker than most of us expected them to be and Kruijswijk is not here. They can turn it into a 1km sprint only if other leaders are happy to participate in this scenario. Luckily we have Pogacar, although when he is already 2nd in GC, he might not be that keen to attack anymore.

 

[Red Rick]

Okay I think everything here depends on Ineos to control and make the stage and pace climbs up to 1/3rd of the Grand Colombier and have Bernal attack or pretend that he will saving him from getting dropped. Either that or put dudes in breakaway attack early and pray for miracle but I guess that's a 0.1% shot and I think Madeleine is better for a desperation move.

No other team really has the riders to make it a sufficiently hard race, except for Jumbo, and I anticipate Jumbo will try to race passively even if Roglic feels good to get Dumoulin and Kuss in the main group on the latter easier part of the Grand Colombier.

I do think the GC guys will duke it out for the stage here.

 

[Big Doopie]

Bernal, Landa, Quintana, Lopez, Porte really need to attack from a ways out here if they have any intention of winning the race, the high road is running out. This stage will likely show who wants to win and who is happy with a good finishing position.

Enough is enough, time to go.

No point attacking from way out unless rog has been isolated (or left with only dumo) on the second col.

(just another reason to drop teams to 7 members, imo)

 

[Red Rick]

Oh remember how hyped we were when teams were dropped to 8 guys in the first place.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

This is a stage I've been waiting for. Moment of truth, especially for guys behind Roglic (Bernal and Quintana in particular). They should try something if they still think about winning the race. The Grand Colombier is big and long unlike previous MTFs (profile somewhat resembles Plateau de Beille), preceding climbs are also very hard. I'm curious how Slovenians dynamics will change tomorrow, these guys simply must start fighting for victory at some point. I think Pogacar will try to drop Roglic on the last climb (if he feels good) but Primoz will be a tough nut to crack, he looked so strong yesterday. It's last stage before a rest day so there may be fireworks tomorrow. Let's hope for an emotional race.

 

[Big Doopie]

Oh remember how hyped we were when teams were dropped to 8 guys in the first place.

and i think it has made a difference actually.

however, at that time i was even pushing for cutting them to seven, if not six. the benefits would be twofold -- more attacks, more long-range attacks, bigger differences made -- and as long as you didn't increase the number of teams, far fewer crashes in the first week.

 

[Big Doopie]

hoping LRP can climb a few more spots on GC.

 

[Andre]

my prediction for the stage:

1. Pogacar
2. Roglic
3. Landa

 

[Luthor]

This should be a fun stage.
Bold prediction time: Roglic wins with a short sprint at the end

 

[TomLPC]

I'm not convinced Jumbo, barring Tom are particularly strong at this inroad. Gesink, Kuss are fine riders but they were nowhere when the attacks started on the >10% inclines yesterday, and looked fried on the lower slopes of the Peyrosourde. The final 4k of Fromentel is more than enough to get rid of the bulk, the 14kish valley is the main deterrent, but It's a slight decline which could be negated if others had teammates up the road. I think many still conflate this team with sky but IMO they aren't nearly as strong as the 2012 vintage for example.

Attacks on stage 18 are a possibility, but the Gileres summit is >30k from the finish, which I think will deter people. You will need at least 90 seconds on Roglic for the final TT, and I don't see any stages other than this or 17 where taking 3/4 minutes (based on position) is at all a possibility. Like i said, I think the likelihood is a lot of consolidation going on with Pogacar attacking 2/3rds from the summit, but if someone lower down with good legs wants to show some winning intent, now is the time. It will be likely too late next week.

 

[hayneplane]

Hopefully the breakaway gets reeled in on the penultimate climb so we get to properly see the GC battle unfold.