Last year was week 3
2018 Dumoulin was in it till stage 19.
2017 podium was decided on stage 20
Previous 4 years you are right.
2012 was the Wiggins/Froome thing, and we all know Froome could have won that baring team orders.
So really it's 4/8
Also, may I remind you, if Pogacar had not lost 1.21 due to a flat on the crosswind stage, he would be ahead of Roglic by 41 seconds by now
Unless Riis is right Pogacar is too "fat" for the Alps, I think he may yet take it.
If that whole fiasco with punctured tires wouldn't have happened, the main advantage Pogačar would have had, in my opinion, is the element of surprise. If he would be able to tail along and give the impression, that is the best he can do, then in week 3 he would likely be able to unleash that single long(er) range attack and surprise. The problem he has now is others (Roglič and his team) are expecting it to happen and will likely come more prepared, waiting for it to potentially happen. Or better, try to make sure it won't happen. But in that case they will still need to manage the bonus second in a way they will be out of reach for Pogačar. As realistically, it is likely safe to assume, Pogačar will do good on TT.
Pogačar in my opinion has a mission to not have a bad day, try to attack and if that won't be possible or sensible, try to get some bonifications.
Roglič and his team in my opinion have a mission to drop Pogačar and if that won't be possible to apply fatigue and don't let Pogačar take any bonifications. And obviously, to not have a bad day.
Also, the position that Landa, MAL, Bernal, and Quintana are better climbers than Roglic is likely built upon stereotypes and feelings rather than actual on-the-road evidence. I don't totally understand all the insistence on so and so being a "pure climber" and therefore somehow a better climber than Roglic just because Roglic is a far better ITTer. If Roglic routinely meets or exceeds the performance of "pure climbers" on the climbs, what is the argument that he is not the stronger climber?