Tour de France 2020 | Stage 15 (Lyon - Grand Colombier, 174.5 km)

[Broccolidwarf]

6 of the previous 8 were decided in week 2.

Last year was week 3
2018 Dumoulin was in it till stage 19.
2017 podium was decided on stage 20
Previous 4 years you are right.
2012 was the Wiggins/Froome thing, and we all know Froome could have won that baring team orders.

So really it's 4/8

Also, may I remind you, if Pogacar had not lost 1.21 due to a flat on the crosswind stage, he would be ahead of Roglic by 41 seconds by now

Unless Riis is right Pogacar is too "fat" for the Alps, I think he may yet take it.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Pogačar said himself, that if he wouldn't have lost time, others would not allow him to attack, and ride the way he did. Therefore i somehow doubt, he would be in maillot jaune ATM, having a 40s lead.

Anyway, week 3 is now here, best to let the riders speak again, and to do the speaking on the road.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Well at worst he’d be effectively tied with Roglic. If Roglic really allowed him to steal 40 seconds when he could have prevented it, that seems like a mistake...

 

[CyclistAbi]

If that whole fiasco with punctured tires wouldn't have happened, the main advantage Pogačar would have had, in my opinion, is the element of surprise. If he would be able to tail along and give the impression, that is the best he can do, then in week 3 he would likely be able to unleash that single long(er) range attack and surprise. The problem he has now is others (Roglič and his team) are expecting it to happen and will likely come more prepared, waiting for it to potentially happen. Or better, try to make sure it won't happen. But in that case they will still need to manage the bonus second in a way they will be out of reach for Pogačar. As realistically, it is likely safe to assume, Pogačar will do good on TT.

Pogačar in my opinion has a mission to not have a bad day, try to attack and if that won't be possible or sensible, try to get some bonifications.

Roglič and his team in my opinion have a mission to drop Pogačar and if that won't be possible to apply fatigue and don't let Pogačar take any bonifications. And obviously, to not have a bad day.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Also, the position that Landa, MAL, Bernal, and Quintana are better climbers than Roglic is likely built upon stereotypes and feelings rather than actual on-the-road evidence. I don't totally understand all the insistence on so and so being a "pure climber" and therefore somehow a better climber than Roglic just because Roglic is a far better ITTer. If Roglic routinely meets or exceeds the performance of "pure climbers" on the climbs, what is the argument that he is not the stronger climber?

This. Totally this.

"Pure climber" is somewhat of a BS phrase that has simply stuck in the cycling vernacular. It can have clinic undertones, as in, "What is this guy doing keeping up with this pure climber?"

Also had to regularly hear BS about how Ullrich couldn't go with the pure climbers, and he would invariably out climb them.

 

[IndianCyclist]

Riders try to win the Giro Vuelta but try not to lose the Tour. As a result in the Tour you have top 9 losers.

 

[BlueRoads]

Another thing, some not yet ready to admit, Roglič is a great pro cyclist. He didn't always had the best team, but has always stacked up nicely, against the best, regardless of the terrain.

P.S. As Pogačar is now openly attacking maillot jaune, the race can still get decided in the mountains, by a long(er) range attack. Who knows, maybe initiated by Roglič.

I don't think anyone is denying that Roglic is a great pro cyclist. But you want to make him a legend already.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Thinking about it, stage 17 will likely be the decisive one, for Pogačar to gain some time, if he has it in him, this year. There JV likely won't be able to have full control.

Other stages look much more controllable by JV.