Tour de France 2020 | Stage 18 (Méribel - La Roche-sur-Foron, 175 km)

[Koronin]

You also likely need two teams to at least partly be willing to work together for an ambush stage to be pulled off. This late in a race, that's even more unlikely to happen.

 

[perico]

Is it just me or is it just sad to see Roman Kreuziger finish yesterday’s stage behind the grupetto? 4th from last? He should sign with Israel next year to be Froome’s superdom.

 

[rzombie1988]

I always used to say this and I still stick to it - the Tour is really won in the first or second week, not the third week.

I don't expect any big moves out of Roglic/Pogacar/Lopez. Of course Pog and Lopez should go for it, but most cyclists would be happy being the next JVDB, Sam Sanchez or Kreuziger than risk their Top 5-10 spot for a shot at glory. I don't see any reason for Porte, Landa, Yates and Uran not to go all out tomorrow and go for it. I don't expect it to happen though.

 

[SafeBet]

You mean to tell us a bet based on your predictions won't be safe?

My nickname was taken from the line: "Call me a safe bet, I'm betting I'm not".

So bet on my words at your own peril.

 

[Bolder]

I know almost all the roads in this stage well. If this was earlier in the tour it would be perfect for a long range attack on Col de Saisies or Aravis. But yesterday was so brutal that I really doubt any GC contender has the legs to do it.

Pro viewing tip: The Route des Villes mini-col outside of Beaufort is really scenic. It's 3k of switchbacks.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I always used to say this and I still stick to it - the Tour is really won in the first or second week, not the third week.

I don't expect any big moves out of Roglic/Pogacar/Lopez. Of course Pog and Lopez should go for it, but most cyclists would be happy being the next JVDB, Sam Sanchez or Kreuziger than risk their Top 5-10 spot for a shot at glory. I don't see any reason for Porte, Landa, Yates and Uran not to go all out tomorrow and go for it. I don't expect it to happen though.

Exactly this. Of course you need good recovery and to be able to perform great in the third week as well, but the Tour is often won in the first or second week.

The stage design today is beautiful - just what the last mountain stage should look like. I have had high expectations for this stage, but given the current standings, I don't expect chaos as one could otherwise have hoped for. Roglic is happy; Pogacar looked to finally be fading yesterday and should also be happy with his Tour and not risk his second place; Lopez should be happy with his likely podium; Porte will bank on the ITT (although everyone can see that a podium is unlikely for him). I don't remember who else is in the top 10.

 

[Jagartrott]

I expect the following riders in the break:
Kwiatkowski, Sivakov, Herrada, Barguil, Hirschi, Rolland, Madouas, Peters, De Gendt, Soler, Martinez. And Alaphilippe, seeing as they base combativité awards on who's pulling faces the most.

 

[SafeBet]

Exactly this. Of course you need good recovery and to be able to perform great in the third week as well, but the Tour is often won in the first or second week.

The stage design today is beautiful - just what the last mountain stage should look like. I have had high expectations for this stage, but given the current standings, I don't expect chaos as one could otherwise have hoped for. Roglic is happy; Pogacar looked to finally be fading yesterday and should also be happy with his Tour and not risk his second place; Lopez should be happy with his likely podium; Porte will bank on the ITT (although everyone can see that a podium is unlikely for him). I don't remember who else is in the top 10.

Valverde.

 

[Amazinmets87]

Was thinking the stage looks decent for peak Allaphilppe (albeit a little long). However, we haven't seen peak form JA this tour.

Actually, if the penultimate climb was a bit shorter (2KMs or so) at the same gradient it would be near ideal.

 

[Cookster15]

[QUOTE="rzombie1988, post: 2469440, member: 5347" I don't see any reason for Porte, Landa, Yates and Uran not to go all out tomorrow and go for it. I don't expect it to happen though.
[/QUOTE]
Yates and Uran don’t have the legs. Porte will save himself for the ITT plus not sure if he’s improved his descending? But Landa might give it a crack?

 

[RedheadDane]

My nickname was taken from the line: "Call me a safe bet, I'm betting I'm not".

So bet on my words at your own peril.

I call it false advertising!

 

[Andy262]

Having tried with Carapaz the last 2 days, surely Skyneos will unleash Kwiato today and tomorrow.

Could also see Bahrain going for a win with Poels or Bilbao, given Landa doesn't have the legs for the offensive.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Movistar sends 3 riders up the road including Soler and Verona to find out if they have the form to go stage hunting. Although unlikely to have the form for stage hunting, they likely can solidify placing 4 riders in the top 20 of GC by doing this.

What an ambitious team.

 

[Frankschleck]

Surely Buchmann goes for it today. I think we for once might see an Uran attack far out.

 

[Rts123]

Very very interesting stage although I doubt we will see any major change in the GC.

I think Miguel Angel Lopez will ride more conservatively than most would like. I don't believe he needs to gain any more time on Porte before the TT (he actually rode his best time trial in 4 years earlier this year in Algarve). His podium position is safe. Maybe he tries to get away on the last climb and link up with a team mate from the break to work together to the finish but I think this is the best we can hope for.

I think Pogacar will ride more conservatively than most would like. He will go hard on the final climb but anything longer than that would be suicidal. Jumbo is just too strong.

If Hirschi has recovered then the stage is great for him. He will gain time on all the descents. Best case scenario would be for him to work with a guy like Kwiatkowski who also descends well and can climb at a similar level to Hirschi. If it's that kind of scenario then it's definitely a day for the break.

The KOTM is so interesting. Pogacar is very hard to catch but someone like Hirshi (35 points behind Pogacar) or Carapaz (if he's recovered from his huge exertions of the last two days) could do it.

Overall my overly specific prediction is for Kwiatkowski to win the stage from Hirschi, after reaching a deal that Hirschi takes all the mountain points to lead the KOTM in return for not contesting the stage win.

Hope your right.
Backed hirschi at 200/1

Though would hirschi prefer stage win on kom?

 

[Kangaridoo]

This GC has been a disappointment. It's just not the same without Monfort riding for 17th place

 

[spalco]

Anyone other than the GC guys who wants to win KOM has to go into the break here, almost certainly (imo) anyone who wants to win the stage as well.

 

[Bardamu]

Only way an attack by MAL/Pogacar might work is if they send riders forward, if they're isolated TJV will too easily haul them back.

 

[Bardamu]

This GC has been a disappointment. It's just not the same without Monfort riding for 17th place

The budget Zubeldia-award.

 

[Luthor]

If the break doesn't contain people from Astana or UAE and has more than 10 people, pretty sure it's gonna win the stage.

 

[Red Rick]

Yea everyone wants in this break, but I suspect Jumbo will police it by sending their own guys into the same break rather than chasing everything down.

Van Aert, Gesink and Bennett seem the prime candidates for this. +200 cheek if they throw in one Tammy D.

Contrary to many other long range stages, I think a successful long range attack, while more likely, is also not gonna lead to insane differences. The main climb of the stage is around 21 minutes, and not hard enough to get real leg breaking effects. It's good as the final mountain stage of a block though.

 

[SKSemtex]

Hirschi or Buchmann from the break. But I hope that at least one team try to make this stage epic.
POG´s recovery is the biggest question mark. Let us see if Astana asks the proper question.

 

[spalco]

Hope your right.
Backed hirschi at 200/1

Though would hirschi prefer stage win on kom?

Porqué no los dos?

 

[repre]

I expect the following riders in the break:
Kwiatkowski, Sivakov, Herrada, Barguil, Hirschi, Rolland, Madouas, Peters, De Gendt, Soler, Martinez. And Alaphilippe, seeing as they base combativité awards on who's pulling faces the most.

Kwiatkowski will still search for Bernal in grupetto...

 

[The Barb]

Hirschi at 200-1 is magnificent! Congratulations.

I think if he gets himself into the break he will surely want the mountains points. With a stage win already I feel like polka dots would add more merit to his Tour overall than another stage win. But I’m not confident.

After rewatching yesterday’s stage I’m feeling Bilbao more and more. He’s clearly got great legs and the stage profile is perfect.