My thoughts about Sagan:
He'll have a very difficult time to defend the green jersey this year. The way Bennett is going, I simply don't think he has a chance... This year is the worst I have ever seen him race, so far...
1. He is a bit over his "optimal" racing weight, 1-2 kilos... You can easily see it on his face and neck. I think that is due to the 2020 messed up racing calendar. Sagan clearly NEEDS solid and strong racing during Spring classics to arrive in shape for the Tour...
2. His position on the bike is off. I first heard it on "The Move" podcast and was watching him for the last few stages... He seems to move too much in the saddle looking for the best position like something is off, esp. when climbing, while in the past he was "glued" to the saddle he is one with it
They speculated it might be saddle sores... Who knows???
3. Age, getting older, losing top level speed is pretty much given and with this new class of young guns who "smell" that Sagan is vulnerable this year it might be too much to overcome...
4. Psychological... Getting through his divorce, being separated from his son a lot and not being as hungry for wins anymore as he used to could also be a factor...
We'll see... I for one, I'm mostly of the opinion that it's a combo of 1 and 3. Number 1, especially, he really doesn't look fit enough for the Tour due to nonexistent racing in the Spring.