Tour de France 2020 | Stage 6 (Le Teil - Mont Aigoual, 191 km)

[slosada]

There is one team that thinks their GC riders are above the rest, and that includes the ITT
The rest of the teams believe (or bank on) said team will fade by the 3rd week, and are much afraid now to give seconds away.
Who is right? We will find out in 2 weeks.
As of now, I say Jumbo failed to capitalize this opportunity when they are the strongest and can get more seconds into the bank.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

From Alaphilippe down, 45 riders finished within 30 seconds at the summit. 28 of these were on the same time at 2’53”, one second behind him.

I thought I’d hunt out to see what other mountain stages have been this indecisive in recent years. Here’s the list I came up with.

2009 Giro d’Italia - San Martino di Castrozza (34 riders within 30” of winner Danilo di Luca)
2011 Giro d’Italia - Montevergine di Mercogliano (42 riders within 30” of winner Bart de Clercq)
2011 Vuelta a España - Sierra Nevada por A-395 (31 riders within 30” of winner Daniel Moreno, 28 of which s/t as 3rd place)
2018 Giro d’Italia - Montevergine di Mercogliano (36 riders within 30” of winner Richard Carapaz, 29 of which on s/t as 2nd place)

After that I'm genuinely struggling unless we start counting Big Bear Freaking Lake. All of those climbs are 5% tempo grinders, consistent and well-known. I thought there might have been the chance of something at a stage in the Volta a Catalunya on those low gradient climbs, or to somewhere like Arcalis or Pla de Beret, but seemingly not. I went back through my memory banks of particularly poorly-raced mountain summits and found even things like Isidro Nozal's tempo rides in the 2003 Vuelta to places like Cam-Basque and the Port d'Envalira were more selective. I don't even think that the cat.2 sprints at Santo Tirso in the Volta had a group as big as this.

I'll let that sink in. The riders took a climb like Lusette and made it less selective than Arcalis.

 

[johnymax]

The people saying it's stupid to attack on this stage because the riders should rather wait for the Peyresourde don't realize just how much easier the Peyresourde is than the Lusette. No they didn't rest on the easy climb to attack on the hard one. It's the hard climb they rested on.

Also the assumption that attacking here would have gained you a few seconds at best is completely unfounded. It just all depends on how you ride the Lusette. If the race explodes there and riders go over the Lusette on their own or in small groups the gaps are only gonna get bigger on the false flat afterwards.
The Mortirolo-Aprica combination doesn't lead to big time gaps because the gaps open up on the Moritrolo, it does because the riders dropped on the Mortirolo lose minutes on the low gradient grind to Aprica.
Remember Froome gaining a minute on Quintana in La Pierre Saint Martin. He attacked on the final steep bit of that climb had but once Quintana was distanced Froome gained a minute on the final 5 kilometers which are like 5% steep.

Now to be fair, it would be a bit of a risk for guys like Roglic to go all in on a climb like this if he isn't 100% confident in himself as he could pay a high price. But why not at least put the pressure on? Why not at least let Kuss ride the hard part at a really high pace? Because they have to safe themselves for doing the same thing two days later instead? On a stage that probably suits Bernal better? Where even if they drop Bernal on the Peyresourde it's hard to imagine him losing more than a minute? And what about the other teams? Maybe Jumbo is just so confident in Roglic that they don't see a need to gain time now, or maybe they are worried about Dumoulin. But is there really nobody who thinks he would benefit from exploiting the weakness of a rival. I simply cannot imagine that.

Anyway, I'm not exactly surprised it went this way, but just the sheer size of that peloton arriving at the finish was even worse than I expected.

I completely agree with you here.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Glad that I fell asleep with 15k to go.

 

[Keram]

Last two stages were really bad even for Tour standards. Cycling is doomed. I regret I was not on bike myself and watched last two hours of this. I didnt expect much today to be honest but Lutsenko had same gap last 20 kms and only hopeless Aru tried something. Insane. Like Barca- Real 0:0 without shots on goal with exibition pace.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

"My legs felt bad so I attacked"

surrely that's Aru's phrase.

 

[Brumdog66]

Roglic didn't attack because his strategy is to defend in the mountains as he has a stronger TT than every other competitor bar dumoulin who is on his own team. Bernal didn't attack because INEOS's strategy is to gain minutes on the 2 hard summit finishes later in the race. Every other team with a GC contender (bar Lopez) is culpable

 

[Carols]

"My legs felt bad so I attacked"

Yep that's what the sport needs, a Real Animator who is good enough to still win the overall .

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Yup. If Roglic/Bernal are still carrying/feeling any effects of injuries from the Dauphine, then by any other teams NOT attacking them today is giving them an extra rest day.

The question is, who would those other teams be, though? You expect EF or UAE to go for it? Bora?

EF and UAE for sure, Trek as well..... Bora not so much, Buchmann is one of the recovering captains.

 

[Gigs_98]

It's not J-V's job to make the race hard; they have the strongest rider in the race and the advantage over all other GC contenders when the ITT comes around. It's up to everyone else to make them work. When they saw Ineos going to the front, they probably thought "Well thank you," and when they saw the pace Ineos were setting and nobody else attacking they definitely thought "thank you VERY much."

The stage didn't finish at the top of the hardest mountain; if the Lusette had been the finish, then gaps in a final 1-2km attack would have become significant, but attacks on the last ramp up to Mont Aigoual would have been easily covered and made little time.

Don't get mad at Jumbo over this stage. There are others who should have been attacking on the Lusette and didn't. We can only hope those attackers who saved themselves for the Peyresourde and Marie-Blanque can actually do something.

Here's the thing. We don't know yet how everyone's shape will be in the third week. Right now all we know is that Roglic looks a lot better than Bernal. It might very well turn out Bernal is just generally sh*te this Tour, but just as we don't know that, JV doesn't know that either. So if the situation is "1st half of the Tour Roglic is better, 2nd half Bernal is better", but JV doesn't capitalize now they can't just turn the time back after Bernal dominates in the Alps and say "uhm excuse us, could we just give Roglic two minutes now, cause he totally could have gained that much if he knew he would need it".
You use your advantage when you have it and if you do that to a reasonable extent I also can't really think of a case where that ever backfired.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

You are missing point...

Today has surely cost something, even if they didnt attack each other. It sure tired some people out. Both some of the captains and domestics, that might just had enough to stay with the group today. That might drop on Saturday for just a small shift in pace up Port Bales for example. Saturday was always gonna be the real test this week to see who is still in contention going into 2nd week.

To put someone into red today you would probably had to put yourself into red, a maximum effort. For what? 20s. Makes no sense. They are managing their efforts to have the most energy where it will count the most. No one is truly that much better than anyone else that they can just attack and attack. It costs too much. Easier to just have them drop on a stage because they gone into red so many times to just stick with.

I didn't miss it, I just thought it made no sense.

Of course those in the best condition at the start of the race, should attack at the start of the race.

Waiting for your opponent to recover and/or hit his form peak, is completely illogical.

Also, it is not only about the GC riders, it is also about their support riders.

The more "off days" you give them, the better they will be in the few stages that truly matter.

This is the time when you use your lieutenants, who are still close on GC, to force Ineos/Jumbo to work hard, it is also when secondary GC teams can gain valuable time for their captains.

Everyone healthy who does not use a stage like today, is really riding this Tour with 3rd as their primary target.

 

[Luthor]

Lutsenko was too strong today, great win for him. The other teams thought it was too much work to catch him, I think having those bonus points in reach would've made the final more interesting.
Why is TJV blamed? Dumo didn't feel well two days ago and Roglic isn't 100 % yet, his sprint two days ago was definitely worse than Dauphine and it was a finish which suits him. Still the strongest but without bonus points and a hard finale I don't see Roglic gaining much.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Lutsenko was too strong today, great win for him. The other teams thought it was too much work to catch him, I think having those bonus points in reach would've made the final more interesting.
Why is TJV blamed? Dumo didn't feel well two days ago and Roglic isn't 100 % yet, his sprint two days ago was definitely worse than Dauphine and it was a finish which suits him. Still the strongest but without bonus points and a hard finale I don't see Roglic gaining much.

Because Kuss outright said after the stage that they felt they had nothing to gain and that if a stage doesn't finish atop the steepest mountain there's no reason for them to try to distance anybody.

 

[Salvarani]

Broccolidwarf has a point though.

If Bernal or Roglic is hurting now from their Dauphine injuries, or Pinot from his crash on stage 1, then to respond to attacks now will be an effort that will cost them on Saturday and Sunday, when riders on other teams will have to attack them.

If Bernal and Roglic don't have to respond to attacks now, they will be better rested to deal with those Saturday and Sunday attacks.

By not attacking today, whichever GC riders were planning on attacking on Saturday made their attacks less effective. particularly, say, Trek or EF, who have 2 or more riders still within a minute of yellow, who can afford to burn one.

They would have made their attacks less effective Saturday, if they would have attacked today.

We just view it differently.

 

[Big Doopie]

Roglic didn't attack because his strategy is to defend in the mountains as he has a stronger TT than every other competitor bar dumoulin who is on his own team. Bernal didn't attack because INEOS's strategy is to gain minutes on the 2 hard summit finishes later in the race. Every other team with a GC contender (bar Lopez) is culpable

agreed.

tho it is pog that rog may have to worry about most. did he not beat him in the national ITT. i know it's a different deal here, but still rog probably doesn't want pog within a few seconds at the ITT start...

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Broccolidwarf has a point though.

If Bernal or Roglic is hurting now from their Dauphine injuries, or Pinot from his crash on stage 1, then to respond to attacks now will be an effort that will cost them on Saturday and Sunday, when riders on other teams will have to attack them.

If Bernal and Roglic don't have to respond to attacks now, they will be better rested to deal with those Saturday and Sunday attacks.

By not attacking today, whichever GC riders were planning on attacking on Saturday made their attacks less effective. particularly, say, Trek or EF, who have 2 or more riders still within a minute of yellow, who can afford to burn one.

Because Kuss outright said after the stage that they felt they had nothing to gain and that if a stage doesn't finish atop the steepest mountain there's no reason for them to try to distance anybody.

For them and for Ineos, riding the stage like they did today makes sense, they are saving energy for the biggest mountain stages.

It does too for FDJ (because all eyes are on Pinot maintaining shape in week 3 instead of burning his matches early), for Bora (Buchmann recovering from an injury) and for Bahrain (hoping to keep Poels in the race for week 3).

But for a number of other teams, it makes no sense to let all of Ineos and Jumbo get "half a rest day", on what could have put them under pressure.

I honestly don't understand why you take offence of what Kuss said.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

They would have made their attacks less effective Saturday, if they would have attacked today.

We just view it differently.

By that logic, everyone should wait for the last big mountain

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

There is one team that thinks their GC riders are above the rest, and that includes the ITT
The rest of the teams believe (or bank on) said team will fade by the 3rd week, and are much afraid now to give seconds away.
Who is right? We will find out in 2 weeks.
As of now, I say Jumbo failed to capitalize this opportunity when they are the strongest and can get more seconds into the bank.

I guess the main problem is that they want to keep Dumoulin high up on GC. He's still their second GC option on paper ...and was clearly struggling on the first MTF. So you could say that they allow Dumo to ride himself into form.

Agreed that this type of riding doesn't benefit Roglic in the slightest.

As for the other teams.... Groupama-FDJ could have maybe tried something if they didn't all hit the deck on day one.

 

[perico]

Yup. If Roglic/Bernal are still carrying/feeling any effects of injuries from the Dauphine, then by any other teams NOT attacking them today is giving them an extra rest day.

The question is, who would those other teams be, though? You expect EF or UAE to go for it? Bora?

I just finished watching which is why I’m responding late as I had a meeting this morning.

Problem is that Bernal and Roglic aren’t the only ones hurting. Valverde May be the only rider who finished in the front group who hasn’t crashed since the start of the Dauphiné. Buchmann is recovering. Pinot has crashed. Dumoulin has crashed but won’t attack his teammate anyway. Pogacar hasn’t crashed that I’m aware of but had a mechanical. Mas crashed today. Urán hasn’t crashed but he isn’t going to do anything anyway. Nairo had his training crash and comes in undercooked. Landa hasn’t shown his Landani-ness since the lockdown. Martinez crashed. Higuita has looked pretty shaky.
Bardet wasn’t targeting GC to start the tour. Guillaume Martin is just happy to be there.

I miss Alberto dammit. He might have blown up, but he would’ve blown up gloriously.

 

[perico]

From Alaphilippe down, 45 riders finished within 30 seconds at the summit. 28 of these were on the same time at 2’53”, one second behind him.

I thought I’d hunt out to see what other mountain stages have been this indecisive in recent years. Here’s the list I came up with.

2009 Giro d’Italia - San Martino di Castrozza (34 riders within 30” of winner Danilo di Luca)
2011 Giro d’Italia - Montevergine di Mercogliano (42 riders within 30” of winner Bart de Clercq)
2011 Vuelta a España - Sierra Nevada por A-395 (31 riders within 30” of winner Daniel Moreno, 28 of which s/t as 3rd place)
2018 Giro d’Italia - Montevergine di Mercogliano (36 riders within 30” of winner Richard Carapaz, 29 of which on s/t as 2nd place)

After that I'm genuinely struggling unless we start counting Big Bear Freaking Lake. All of those climbs are 5% tempo grinders, consistent and well-known. I thought there might have been the chance of something at a stage in the Volta a Catalunya on those low gradient climbs, or to somewhere like Arcalis or Pla de Beret, but seemingly not. I went back through my memory banks of particularly poorly-raced mountain summits and found even things like Isidro Nozal's tempo rides in the 2003 Vuelta to places like Cam-Basque and the Port d'Envalira were more selective. I don't even think that the cat.2 sprints at Santo Tirso in the Volta had a group as big as this.

I'll let that sink in. The riders took a climb like Lusette and made it less selective than Arcalis.

Bonus points for the Nozal references. That guy was the least exciting rider ever.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Mads Pedersen gets to ride the sprint tomorrow, it's his "turn" in the Trek rotation..... get your bets in before it's too late

It's gonna be a weird one, if I read the map on the official Tour homepage correctly, there is a roundabout 200 metres from the finish line, so the fight to enter that first will be epic

 

[perico]

I completely agree with you here.

Peyresourde is a worthless climb. One of Prudhommme’s favorites.

 

[Rollthedice]

Because Kuss outright said after the stage that they felt they had nothing to gain and that if a stage doesn't finish atop the steepest mountain there's no reason for them to try to distance anybody.

Jumbo. Arrogance? Stupidity? Clueless? Bernal could have lost minutes today, Mollema said he was shouting at freking Kwiatkowski to slow down. Do they think they are invincible, that they can just ride away whenever they want? Time will tell.

 

[Luthor]

Because Kuss outright said after the stage that they felt they had nothing to gain and that if a stage doesn't finish atop the steepest mountain there's no reason for them to try to distance anybody.

Kuss crashed yesterday, Benett is not 100 % and WvA got dropped early. Who would work then for TJV? Sure they could put some work but TJV was not strong enough today to gain anything significant given how well rested were everyone. Kuss says they needed a harder finish in order for Roglic to do his trick and gain more time. Gaining 10 s and dropping some weak GC contenders aren't worth it.

 

[IndianCyclist]

Losing by Waiting
"I am waiting for the Alps"
" I am Waiting for the Pyrenees "
"I am Waiting for the TT"
" I was waiting for the Fourth Week but the Tour was over by then"