Tour de France Tour de France 2020

[Red Rick]

More likely he needs 2 minutes on Roglic, unless Roglic is already crumbling in which case he already has that locked up.

Probably much more than 2 minutes on Dumoulin

 

[CyclistAbi]

One week.

 

[Blanco]

If Bernal is in form to gain 1,5 min on Rogla and Dumo in the mountains, I doubt he will lose more than 2 in the TT.

 

[Mayomaniac]

More likely he needs 2 minutes on Roglic, unless Roglic is already crumbling in which case he already has that locked up.

Probably much more than 2 minutes on Dumoulin

The ITT is technical in the first part and then it's uphill. It also comes at the end of the gt, so if Bernal is able to gain 2min (doable on stage 17 + 18 alone, if he's in peak shape) he won't loose a lot of time in the ITT, a top 10 or even top 5 on the stage wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Red Rick]

The ITT is technical in the first part and then it's uphill. It also comes at the end of the gt, so if Bernal is able to gain 2min (doable on stage 17 + 18 alone, if he's in peak shape) he won't loose a lot of time in the ITT, a top 10 or even top 5 on the stage wouldn't surprise me.

Had a look at the map, it doesn't look technical at all to me apart from a small section around 20km in?

2 minutes won't be much more than 2s/minute, which isn't actually that much. Question is basicall how does the flat affect the subsequent climb, and this ITT is reall rare so there's no much to go off. Maybe San Marino 2019, but Roglic wasn't too hot there I think.

Also much of the first 30km is false flat, which IMO favors Dumoulin especially.

Lastly, I don't think 2 minutes is that feasable on stage 17+18 alone. I don't think 18 is great for Bernal. And I have my doubts about 17 being that amazing either.

I have a weird feeling that it's somehow not gonna be a close Tour either way. I think Bernal needs to be better than last year, even 3 weeks of last year's 3rd week isn't enough IMO.

It's also hard to imagine everything being even after the Pyrenees. If Bernal is dropping Roglic in the Pyrenees, it's hard for me to see him lose. If he doesn't, he likely loses time in boni's and shorter finishes and he suddenly needs even more time in the Alps.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Had a look at the map, it doesn't look technical at all to me apart from a small section around 20km in?

2 minutes won't be much more than 2s/minute, which isn't actually that much. Question is basicall how does the flat affect the subsequent climb, and this ITT is reall rare so there's no much to go off. Maybe San Marino 2019, but Roglic wasn't too hot there I think.

Also much of the first 30km is false flat, which IMO favors Dumoulin especially.

Lastly, I don't think 2 minutes is that feasable on stage 17+18 alone. I don't think 18 is great for Bernal. And I have my doubts about 17 being that amazing either.

I have a weird feeling that it's somehow not gonna be a close Tour either way. I think Bernal needs to be better than last year, even 3 weeks of last year's 3rd week isn't enough IMO.

It's also hard to imagine everything being even after the Pyrenees. If Bernal is dropping Roglic in the Pyrenees, it's hard for me to see him lose. If he doesn't, he likely loses time in boni's and shorter finishes and he suddenly needs even more time in the Alps.

With everyone and their mum having some sort of problem/a crash before the Tour I can think of very few team who'll be willing to make the first few mountain stages hard, lots of gc riders will try to be rather conservative early on.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Roglič has evolved over the years in a way i am not all that sure anymore, anybody could drop him in the mountains.

P.S. I remember reading, when a journalist asked Roglič, on how he feels about the lack of a proper TT. To my surprise Roglič responded, he doesn't like TT all that much anyway. Like he knows that this Tour edition will be won by climbing, hence he fully adapted to achieving that goal.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Was Carapaz included, due to Bernal in a real need of a super domestique, not to be isolated easily. Or was Carapaz included as a real backup option in case Bernal couldn't' cope? Data signaling Bernal could have issues?

 

[Red Rick]

With everyone and their mum having some sort of problem/a crash before the Tour I can think of very few team who'll be willing to make the first few mountain stages hard, lots of gc riders will try to be rather conservative early on.

Can or can't?

I would think any team who's leader is healthy and feeling good will try to rip it on that stage. Initially I thought it would be Jumbo turning the screws on Thomas and Froome, but now that's out of the window obviously. If Roglic and Dumoulin feel good that stage I can still see them do it cause it could make the rest of the Tour easier to control if a bunch of riders are already down time.

 

[topcat]

The tour is full of injured over-hyped riders. Aru for the win.

 

[Laplaz]

Only leaders without problems are Dumoulin, G. Martin, Pogacar and MAL. So it's up to UAE and Astana to create havoc on stage 2. Cofidis has not the strenght and Jumbo has to pay attention to Roglic. Just speculation of course. Probably nothing will happen.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I guess TJV could test what role will Carapaz have, as early as on stage 2.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Can or can't?

I would think any team who's leader is healthy and feeling good will try to rip it on that stage. Initially I thought it would be Jumbo turning the screws on Thomas and Froome, but now that's out of the window obviously. If Roglic and Dumoulin feel good that stage I can still see them do it cause it could make the rest of the Tour easier to control if a bunch of riders are already down time.

Of course I wanted to say can't, sorry for the typo. I agree with Laplaz that it will probably come down to Astana and UAE.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

The ITT [...] also comes at the end of the gt, so if Bernal is able to gain 2min (doable on stage 17 + 18 alone, if he's in peak shape) he won't loose a lot of time in the ITT, a top 10 or even top 5 on the stage wouldn't surprise me.

Bernal lost time to Pinot

(I think)

• on PdBF
• in St. Étienne
• in the ITT
• on the Tourmalet
• on Prat d'Albis

He didn't lose a lot of time, but still, it added up. Bernal claims he wasn't in top shape then, but I doubt he could have done much better, looking at his previous results and his results since. His results are indeed very good, but not that of a once in a decade type of talent, IMO. Probably a tier below that.

People claimed he recovered really well relative to other riders. Maybe, but then again it could have been Galibier and Iseran that gave him a bigger advantage over riders like Buchmann. The field is better this year, too. Plus a harder first half.

I dunno, Bernal not losing any time in weeks 1 and 2 AND taking two minutes out of the field in stages 17 and 18 would be a surprise to me.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Bernal lost time to Pinot

(I think)

• on PdBF
• in St. Étienne
• in the ITT
• on the Tourmalet
• on Prat d'Albis

He didn't lose a lot of time, but still, it added up. Bernal claims he wasn't in top shape then, but I doubt he could have done much better, looking at his previous results and his results since. His results are indeed very good, but not that of a once in a decade type of talent, IMO. Probably a tier below that.

People claimed he recovered really well relative to other riders. Maybe, but then again it could have been Galibier and Iseran that gave him a bigger advantage over riders like Buchmann. The field is better this year, too. Plus a harder first half.

I dunno, Bernal not losing any time in weeks 1 and 2 AND taking two minutes out of the field in stages 17 and 18 would be a surprise to me.

Yes, I was mainly talking about Roglic and Dumoulin (who seems to be more solid at the end of a gt). Against Pinot it's different, I really don't expect him to gain minutes on a healthy Pinot on any mountain stages...

 

[Leinster]

Was Carapaz included, due to Bernal in a real need of a super domestique, not to be isolated easily. Or was Carapaz included as a real backup option in case Bernal couldn't' cope? Data signaling Bernal could have issues?

I’m sure Ineos knew early that Froome and Thomas weren’t hitting their numbers, and at least one of them wouldn’t make the Tour, and I’m sure they started talking to Carapaz before the Dauphiné about the possibility of him switching targets. They probably told him “you’ll be supporting Egan,” but then, Movistar probably told him he’d be supporting Landa at the Giro last year.

 

[CyclistAbi]

The thing that is puzzling me a bit is La Route d'Occitanie. There Ineos was dominating to such extent, other riders said it would be foolish to attack. I somehow doubt, that at that point Carapaz knew he is going to the Tour.

 

[Mayomaniac]

The thing that is puzzling me a bit is La Route d'Occitanie. There Ineos was dominating to such extent, other riders said it would be foolish to attack. I somehow doubt, that at that point Carapaz knew he is going to the Tour.

When the Tour de l'Ain ended it looked like Froome would be a really solid domestique, but then he went backwards durning the Dauphine. They probably also expected more from Thomas in the Dauphine, when both of them underperformed the alarm bells went off.

 

[Sciatic]

There’s a lot being read into the Dauphine results, but aside from Sky/Ineos whose Tour results often followed form shown in the Dauphine, I don’ t trust how predictive it is for other riders’ subsequent tour performance. Though my judgment may be skewed by how let down I felt by Iban Mayo’s 2004 Tour performance☹️

 

[Salvarani]

Was Carapaz included, due to Bernal in a real need of a super domestique, not to be isolated easily. Or was Carapaz included as a real backup option in case Bernal couldn't' cope? Data signaling Bernal could have issues?

I would say both.

If Bernal is good, it is good to have Carapaz there with Sivakov.

If Bernal is out/falls behind, it is good to have Carapaz. For GC, for a stage... for anything really.

 

[CyclistAbi]

When the Tour de l'Ain ended it looked like Froome would be a really solid domestique, but then he went backwards durning the Dauphine. They probably also expected more from Thomas in the Dauphine, when both of them underperformed the alarm bells went off.

I guess too bad Carapaz wasn't there. I somehow have an impression, Froome/Thomas taking the blame, but their form might not being all that bad. That is in "normal" circumstances, not considering TJV form being out of this world (likely intentionally).

If Bernal is out/falls behind, it is good to have Carapaz. For GC, for a stage... for anything really.

Yes, this is what TJV will likely be interested in establishing, ASAP. What exactly is the deal with Carapaz. I doubt they will wait until third week, to get a taste.

 

[Alexandre B.]

When the Tour de l'Ain ended it looked like Froome would be a really solid domestique, but then he went backwards durning the Dauphine. They probably also expected more from Thomas in the Dauphine, when both of them underperformed the alarm bells went off.

He didn't drop any rider, and Castroviejo who worked before him lasted longer.

 

[Jspear]

lol yeah. I guess you could say compared to himself he did okay at the Tour de l’Ain and then worse at the CD, but in both races he wasn’t a great Domestique.

 

[Breezy1985]

Landani, too, surely.

If Nairo and Landa were to somehow find themselves off the front together, they might actually work together better than they ever did at Movistar...

Wouldn't it be gas if Landa, Valverde and Nairo broke away together in one of those mad full stage ambushes

 

[Leinster]

There’s a lot being read into the Dauphine results, but aside from Sky/Ineos whose Tour results often followed form shown in the Dauphine, I don’ t trust how predictive it is for other riders’ subsequent tour performance. Though my judgment may be skewed by how let down I felt by Iban Mayo’s 2004 Tour performance☹

There’s 2 types of Dauphiné winner, though. There’s the Froome/Thevenet/Bobet type who won it as a stepping stone to the Tour, and there’s the Brajkovic/Talansky type, for whom it’s a stretch goal and winning it makes their season a success. For the former, winning or losing doesn’t matter as much as form. For the latter, it’s worth going extra deep to to get the W. Mayo was always closer to the 2nd group.