Tour de France Tour de France 2021, Stage 12: Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux – Nîmes, 159.4 km

[Amazinmets87]

So... Unless Greipel is dropped on a hill he's overwhelming favorite, correct?

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Beautiful road through a beautiful landscape

 

[sir fly]

Eddy stole the skinsuit!

 

[Vroome.exe]

Merckx making sure Cav doesn't get his green skinsuit... dirty, dirty tactics.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

So... Unless Greipel is dropped on a hill he's overwhelming favorite, correct?

Not overwhelming, he is not what he used to be, but he has been slowly improving this year - incidentally like Cavendish.

Alaphilippe, Theuns, Mezgec and Swift will all be able to contest the sprint.

I don't think Greipel makes it to the end though, as everyone will want to get rid of him on the last hills.

I think his move is to go with the big TT guys, when they go, because they also do not want to get dropped on the hills by the lighter guys, so will probably start trying with 20-30K to go.

 

[sir fly]

The gap stabilizing a bit.
The bunch still undecided about chasing down the break.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Wiggo apparently saying on the British broadcast, that Cavendish was frustrated ahead of the stage, because ASO had not delivered a green skinsuit for him - which is why he is in the normal DQ pants.

 

[BlueRoads]

Not overwhelming, he is not what he used to be, but he has been slowly improving this year - incidentally like Cavendish.

Alaphilippe, Theuns, Mezgec and Swift will all be able to contest the sprint.

I don't think Greipel makes it to the end though, as everyone will want to get rid of him on the last hills.

I think his move is to go with the big TT guys, when they go, because they also do not want to get dropped on the hills by the lighter guys, so will probably start trying with 20-30K to go.

Yes, I also think he's not going to make it to the end, pretty much everyone will want to drop him. I do think, though, that if he makes it, he has a very, very good chance of winning - since I would absolutely not have given him a chance to win a stage here it's a surprisingly good situation for him.
I don't think he will be able to hold on to Küng's wheel if he goes soon enough. Would be a tough decision for me if I was him whether I should try to follow Küng in that case or hope that the group brings Küng (and/ or Bissegger) back together.

It's a really interesting group with several options how this will play out.

 

[Earns1985]

The gap stabilizing a bit.
The bunch still undecided about chasing down the break.

Bunch undecided? UAE is the only team which is riding and they don´t have an interest to bring them back.

 

[BlueRoads]

Wiggo apparently saying on the British broadcast, that Cavendish was frustrated ahead of the stage, because ASO had not delivered a green skinsuit for him - which is why he is in the normal DQ pants.

I can understand that skinsuit is faster, but it's also the plainest sight. He should be happy...

 

[titan31]

I think if a sprint team doesn't come to the front in the next 15-20k at the latest, this is done for. You're not bringing back over a minute per KM on that break.

 

[MrTea1976]

That gorge is lovely.

 

[will-10]

Imagine rolling through all day in that group of weapons. And people keep saying there's a weak field...

 

[Broccolidwarf]

I think if a sprint team doesn't come to the front in the next 15-20k at the latest, this is done for. You're not being back over a minute per KM on that break.

It's gone already. unless the break shatters into smaller groups.

Even if DSM, Arkea, Bahrain and Alpecin invest in it, a group of 13 strong riders working together, in fairly "easy" terrain, will be almost impossible to catch, with the gap over 9 minutes.

 

[will-10]

I think if a sprint team doesn't come to the front in the next 15-20k at the latest, this is done for. You're not bringing back over a minute per KM on that break.

It's over

 

[Earns1985]

From 60 km to go until 30 km to go, there will be crosswind again. Anyone knows if these sections are also exposed?

 

[sir fly]

The Green jersey contest also on hold it seems.

 

[titan31]

It's gone already. unless the break shatters into smaller groups.

Even if DSM, Arkea, Bahrain and Alpecin invest in it, a group of 13 strong riders working together, in fairly "easy" terrain, will be almost impossible to catch, with the gap over 9 minutes.

My thinking would be if they brought it down and then GC groups worked in echelons, it could have come back. It's gone up over a minute since I posted that though so now it's over I'd say.

 

[Anderis]

So... Unless Greipel is dropped on a hill he's overwhelming favorite, correct?

I'm 90% sure it wont be a 13-men group sprint, there will be attacks in the final kilometers, the group is likely to splinter and a 38 y.o. Greipel doesn't seem as likely to make the part of the split that'll reach the finish line first as some other big engines in the group. Even if he was, there's always a big random factor involved in this kind of breaks, anyone can lose due to a bad tactical choice, you can't cover 12 other riders on flat unless you're literally two levels above the others, which isn't the case for anyone in this group.

 

[will-10]

My thinking would be if they brought it down and then GC groups worked in echelons, it could have come back. It's gone up over a minute since I posted that though so now it's over I'd say.

Even if it exploded now from behind, there is so much horsepower in the front that it ain't coming back.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

From 60 km to go until 30 km to go, there will be crosswind again. Anyone knows if these sections are also exposed?

62.8K to go, and the next 10K, is the best chance at crosswinds (after that it's mainly tailwind), but looking at the pictures (look at the tree tops), it looks like the wind has eased off and will not be hard enough to create gaps.

 

[Anderis]

My thinking would be if they brought it down and then GC groups worked in echelons, it could have come back. It's gone up over a minute since I posted that though so now it's over I'd say.

If GC action started right now, and it would be a favourable split with a very strong 1st group with motivation to not allow someone in the 2nd group to come back, they still could catch it IMO, but it would need to start right now.

 

[will-10]

I'm picking Mezgec for another frustrating 2nd

 

[ice&fire]

Wiggo apparently saying on the British broadcast, that Cavendish was frustrated ahead of the stage, because ASO had not delivered a green skinsuit for him - which is why he is in the normal DQ pants.

If he hadn't won a single stage he wouldn't have a reason to complain and he'd be happier

 

[Sciatic]

If folks saw that graphic: looks like a total of more than 200 pro wins accounted for in that break.