Tour de France Tour de France 2021, Stage 12: Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux – Nîmes, 159.4 km

[Lequack]

Teams? I'd be fairly sure there's only one team who feels they have a shot of winning this.

Chris Horner will tell you there are always enough knuckleheads to work at the front for not apparent reason.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

It's fine, Total will start pulling soon.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

There is the opportunity for Ala to break away with guys like Kung and Bissegger from that group.

I know, but if I was the DQ DS, I would think that was a 20 % chance at a win, while Cavendish is a 90 % chance at a win.

I think they will ask Alaphilippe to break up the group further on the cat. 3 to come, to maximise his chances, and if the group created is not attractive, they will chase down the break.

 

[BlueRoads]

So this is what will happen: At one point Bissegger will go clear, but the group will bring him back soon, Küng counter-attacks immediately and for a few kms it looks like he will make it, but then he reaches the underpass and gets stuck! Greipel behind him also stuck in one of the tunnels! All riders too big? Alaphilippe squeezes through and is about to win, but when he celebrates already Sergio Henao, the only rider who could follow him through the hole, passes him and wins.
Henao for the win!

 

[broppo]

the break is taking it

 

[titan31]

Ala starting to ride in that group too. With DSM and Alpecin both down riders, I think this break is gone unless further wind/echelons drives the pace up

 

[glassmoon]

Well... it looked promising at the beginning but this is gonna be snooze fest...

 

[Broccolidwarf]

At 6-7 minutes gap, we will see what teams are interested (if any), in keeping the break in check.

If it gets significantly above that to 8+ minutes, I will fold my hand

 

[broppo]

At 6-7 minutes gap, we will see what teams are interested (if any), in keeping the break in check.

If it gets significantly above that to 8+ minutes, I will fold my hand

no team is crazy enough to try and get a break back with kung and bisegger in it with a 7 minute lead, also alaphilipe has a decent chance to win from the breakaway.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

DSM, Bahrain and Alpecin SHOULD want to keep the break in check - unless they believe Cavendish is now unbeatable on the line.

 

[BlueRoads]

Ala looks tired, I actually think one of the time trialers will make it.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Feed zone now, if the peloton is still taking it slow after, the break is gone for the day.

 

[Vroome.exe]

I know, but if I was the DQ DS, I would think that was a 20 % chance at a win, while Cavendish is a 90 % chance at a win.

I think they will ask Alaphilippe to break up the group further on the cat. 3 to come, to maximise his chances, and if the group created is not attractive, they will chase down the break.

90% chance? Cav would probably be dropped on the last hill, or just too tired after yesterday. I feel like Cav himself told his team to go for a break today.

 

[Earns1985]

The break will win this. A lot of strong riders in the break, tailwind for the most of the route. Even if the peleton would try to bring them back, the riders upfront are too strong..

 

[triley36]

Calling it now: DSM to hit the front with 100k to go after giving the break 10 minutes. Futile chase to set up a sprint for 6th place from Bol. They run out of riders with 50k to go and gap still at 7 minutes. Break goes to the line.

 

[spalco]

The break will win this. A lot of strong riders in the break, tailwind for the most of the route. Even if the peleton would try to bring them back, the riders upfront are too strong..

Only 120km left also. If it was a 200km stage, the situation would be different.

And: holy ***, that scenery!

 

[Broccolidwarf]

That's it, no Alpecin, DSM or Bahrain moving up, towards the front of the peloton, after the feed zone - the break is gone.

The only thing that may change it now, is crosswinds whet they get out of the nature reserve they are riding through at the moment

 

[JosefK]

The break will win this. A lot of strong riders in the break, tailwind for the most of the route. Even if the peleton would try to bring them back, the riders upfront are too strong..

Merckx breathing easier.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

90% chance? Cav would probably be dropped on the last hill, or just too tired after yesterday. I feel like Cav himself told his team to go for a break today.

I disagree.

Alaphilippe in the break, is about avoiding having to control the break all day

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Greipel should put on one of his old Lotto kits to trick Sweeney and Van Moer into riding for him.

 

[spalco]

Cavendish is mucho tranquilo about tying his *** shoes...

 

[BlueRoads]

90% chance? Cav would probably be dropped on the last hill, or just too tired after yesterday. I feel like Cav himself told his team to go for a break today.

I think the tactic of DQS is usually have one guy in each group and take each chance seriously. If Ala is in the break they very probably won't say "he's just there as a token, our real plan is Cav", but neither "hopefully Ala will make it since Cav isn't going to". They are just prepared for both situations.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Think this could be the Hirschi moment for Van Moer, but would love to see Eddy the Boss take it, just for the reaction of the Norweigans.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Think this could be the Hirschi moment for Van Moer, but would love to see Eddy the Boss take it, just for the reaction of the Norweigans.

Yeah, it's been a while since the Norwegian commentators, has had a chance to say "we own the cycling world"

 

[Broccolidwarf]

10 nationalities in a 13 man break - cycling truly is international these days