Tour de France Tour de France 2021, Stage 16: Pas de la Case – Saint-Gaudens, 169.0 km

[Devil's Elbow]

Stage 16: Pas de la Case – Saint-Gaudens, 169.0 km
Pescheux special time. Prudhomme has the grace not to call it a Pyrenees stage, because this is a clear breakaway day, in spite of a tricky finale.

Map and profile

Route details
The neutralisation starts by re-entering France, then once the hairpins are negotiated, the stage can actually begin. The descent into Ax-les-Thermes is at a gradient of 3-5%, setting up a fast start of the stage. Considering the profile, it may take the Col de Port, the summit of which comes after a third of the stage, to form the definitive breakaway.

The descent is constantly sinuous, but largely hairpin-free. A section of valley leads into the intermediate sprint, once again at the foot of the next climb, the Col de la Core.

After a similar descent to the previous one, the last Pyrenean climb, Col de Portet-d’Aspet of the day starts.

The descent is notoriously technical. The final 10 kilometers of the stage are rolling, with two climbs: the categorised Côte d’Aspret-Sarrat, with a peak that comfortably reaches double-digit gradients based on Streetview, and the kick to the finish line (see below).

Final kilometers
The one time they bypass most of the finish town is a stage that likely won’t even be a sprint!

 

[The Barb]

Thanks for starting the thread!

Will be a huge battle for the break. Probably the last breakaway stage on the Tour.

I like Higuita. Stage profile is similar to the Vuelta stage he won in 2019 and his form is strong. Could win solo or from a small group sprint.

 

[Leinster]

If you're 5 minutes behind the Yellow jersey, the easy part for this stage is to send 1 or 2 guys up the road in the break.

The next, less easy part, is to drop all the UAE doms over the Col de la Core.

The final, really hard, part, is to get a gap on Pogacar on the Porte d'Aspet, and link up with your guys from the break and put time into the other contenders.

The follow-on, really really hard part, is to save enough energy doing all this to follow Pogacar on Portet and Luz Ardiden the next 2 days.


Break, lots of KOM sprinting, no GC action.

 

[Izzyeviel]

Tommy of Gendt to win

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Wout of Aert will win this.

 

[The Barb]

Tommy of Gendt to win

I would love that but he has almost no chance. He just can't ride people off his wheel like he used to.

His recent comments were very revealing about the watts he's putting out being comparable to what he used to do, but instead of shattering the peloton like in the past it's not enough to even open a gap.

 

[saganftw]

this time it will work out for alaphilippe

 

[Tank Engine]

A classical break stage. Given the state of the race I would expect INEOS to give Mike Flowers a day pass to go into the break as their best bet for a stage win (but they might go for the unexpected "set up Richie C. for a surprise attack on the final climb").

There are no more uphill starts (good for Cav). Since this start is downhill and after a rest day, I think a strong break will form on the first climb with most of the usual suspects. Looks ideal for Ala (odds on to try) and van Aert (depends on the team's goals), but look out for Fraile to try and save Astana's tour.

 

[The Barb]

A classical break stage. Given the state of the race I would expect INEOS to give Mike Flowers a day pass to go into the break as their best bet for a stage win (but they might go for the unexpected "set up Richie C. for a surprise attack on the final climb").

There are no more uphill starts (good for Cav). Since this start is downhill and after a rest day, I think a strong break will form on the first climb with most of the usual suspects. Looks ideal for Ala (odds on to try) and van Aert (depends on the team's goals), but look out for Fraile to try and save Astana's tour.

Fraile will be stewing after Stage 14. I 'wasn't sure why he didn't follow Mollema until I went back and looked and saw that the winning move came right at the moment he went back to the car for a bottle. I do worry for him, however, that these climbs will be right at his limit, particularly with the quality of climbers you would expect to be in the break.

 

[hayneplane]

Would be immensely surprised if this didn’t go to a 20+ breakaway group with all the KOM contenders in it (Woods might find it a struggle with the descent start) then some GC action on the Portet d’aspet but nothing major with the yellow jersey group rolling in 10-12 minutes after the stage winner.

 

[Volderke]

One thing is for sure:
I’ll be on the Col du Portet-aspet. Somewhere in the last kilometer before the top. I’ll be wearing a yellow jersey.

 

[Amazinmets87]

It's the day after a rest day and the course has multiple legit climbs. We have multiple riders in realistic contention for a podium. With all that said I expect there to be some shake-up in GC, most likely a rider just has bad legs and is distanced on the climbs. I expect the big 3 (Pog, Carapaz and Uran) to roll in together.

As for the stage win, I'll put my money on JA.

 

[titan31]

One thing is for sure:
I’ll be on the Col du Portet-aspet. Somewhere in the last kilometer before the top. I’ll be wearing a yellow jersey.

Sweet, Pogacar is on the cyclingnews forum.

 

[Tank Engine]

Fraile will be stewing after Stage 14. I 'wasn't sure why he didn't follow Mollema until I went back and looked and saw that the winning move came right at the moment he went back to the car for a bottle. I do worry for him, however, that these climbs will be right at his limit, particularly with the quality of climbers you would expect to be in the break.

True, but several of the best climbers who will be given a leash (and van Aert if he's there) will looking for mountain points. Ala's batteries will be running low from impersonating a duracell bunny, so I think the all rounders who are strictly concentrating on winning the stage are in with a shout. The finish definitely suits Fraile (if he gets over the final big climb near the front).

 

[Volderke]

I climbed the col de portet-d’aspet today. The weather is awful at the col (in the valley it’s drier and a bit warmer). All I can say is some gc candidates can try something if they have someone on the road. The descent is treacherous with the rain and oil (coming from the mobilhomes I think).

 

[Red Rick]

One thing is for sure:
I’ll be on the Col du Portet-aspet. Somewhere in the last kilometer before the top. I’ll be wearing a yellow jersey.

Be careful that Ineos don't randomly start working for you.

 

[Red Rick]

I am more optimistic than usual for GC action that I would normally be.

They might let a top 10 rider in teh breakaway and just gift 2nd place on GC again.

 

[roundabout]

At least the weather shouldn't be too bad and looking one stage further ahead snow on Portet is no longer a possibility

 

[Anderis]

This stage has Riche Porte all over it.
Col de Port
Col de Portet- d'Aspet

 

[Tim Cahill]

Come on Ineos let Flowers have a crack you miserable tossers

 

[mortand]

Mattia Cattaneo to win from the break, jump to 2nd in the GC and save Deceuninck-Quick Step's Tour.

 

[sir fly]

Mattia Cattaneo to win from the break, jump to 2nd in the GC and save Deceuninck-Quick Step's Tour.

Yeah.
Everything below six stages, jersey and overall lead is a failure for them.

 

[will-10]

Van Aert comes back to the break on the last descent to win again.

Woods takes polka dot back again.

Guillaume Martin in the break again, moves up to 2nd on GC again, no-one chases like they mean it again, the French press lose their minds over Martin being on the podium again, Martin loses all his gains the day after, again.

 

[Leinster]

Van Aert comes back to the break on the last descent to win again.

Woods takes polka dot back again.

Guillaume Martin in the break again, moves up to 2nd on GC again, no-one chases like they mean it again, the French press lose their minds over Martin being on the podium again, Martin loses all his gains the day after, again.

Phil Ligget proclaims “it’s like deja vu all over again, again.”

 

[SHAD0W93]

Phil Ligget proclaims “it’s like deja vu all over again, again.”

Honestly he might not put that together without input. He has sadly been all over.