Colbrelli wouldn't obviously recognize the contact as he would be DSQ. If the bars would be entangled than Roglic's crash would've happened at a lower speed and Colbrelli would be shaken up. Also Colbrelli's gesture does show frustration, but he doesn't explain it later why. Why would Roglic not say their bars entagled if that was the truth?
The footage is quite clear to me, why would we believe rider's position when their interest is clear to minimize the effect. Also it was a statement far after the end of the race, when the PR of Bahrain already went in.
You are the one looking too deep into this.
Colbrelli immediately gestured so he didn't hide there was contact. If you are a bully bodychecking, you wouldn't immediately gesture so everyone can see.
He probably didn't even know Roglic was coming on his left rear end the moment he was moving to the right. Next, the contact happened (bars or whatever), and next, Roglic crashed. Colbrelli was obviously in a bit of shock, both scared by the contact, and angry because he probably lost some balance as well.
If Roglic really thinks it was a bodycheck, and even one intentionally, he wouldn't retract his tweet, and he would file a complaint. It seems Jumbo (and Roglic) realize that Colbrelli is not to blame and it's just unfortunate.