Tour de France Tour de France 2021, Stage 7: Vierzon – Le Creusot, 249.1 km

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It’s Nibali. 2 of the next 3 mtn stages are descent finishes. You don’t give a rider that good a large advantage. Nibali is no Andreu Kivilev. He’s probably the smartest tactical GC (if fading) rider in the peloton. If he has a chance to take yellow, you would have to pry it from his cold dead hands.

At the same time, it seems the main group is falling back to the peloton with the 2 ahead.

Descent finishes are of little help if he starts it 5 minutes behind the real GC contenders. No one in this break is threat for the overall and they aren't going to have the current gap at the end of the stage.
 
Descent finishes are of little help if he starts it 5 minutes behind the real GC contenders. No one in this break is threat for the overall and they aren't going to have the current gap at the end of the stage.

You are risking it. Who is to say that Nibali, with his crash and missed training before the Giro, has not ridden himself into form good enough to hang on to the Skineos train in the mountains. Pogacar may be able to dispose of him, but Ineos isn’t going to attack with Carapaz as long as Geraint isn’t out of contention. Who knows how strong Roglic will be after the crashes. I wouldn’t be shocked if Nibali was able to hang onto the leaders group through the Alps and Ventoux, where there is only 1 summit finish.
 
I think it should have been a risk worth taking for UAE as well.
So if you have a 70% shot of winning the Tour, you don't want to give someone a 10% shot (say, giving Nibali 10 minutes) and lowing your odds to 60%. If you have 5% at winning the Tour, giving someone that 10% is pretty irrelevant. The trickier math is that by chasing so hard UAE might lower that 70% chance to 65%. But it's still better than handing someone a 10% chance, so you do it. But on the flip side since UAE is tiring themselves out, other teams have even less of an incentive to work.

So yeah, if you're the clearcut favorite your incentives are different. That's the intuition behind the maillot jaune's tam drives the peloton tradition.
 
do I really entirely rule out the chance of him suddenly being really good at limiting his losses in the high mountain?
Even if he could limit his losses in mountains (which imo is impossible to happen), do you really think he's gonna race until Paris? Cause I really doubt it, considering how Tokyo is important for him and how much freedom he has inside his team.
 
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