Tour de France Tour de France 2022: Stage 10 (Morzine Les Portes du Soleil – Megève, 148.1k)

[bob.a.feet]

For today's stage I've gone for Schachmann @ 26, Mohoric @ 34, and Martinez @ 67.

Bora are likely to put one or two riders in the break, and the shallow gradients on this stage make me favour Schachmann over Kämna. Moreover, Kämna is literally the favourite @ 7.5, and I don't consider that to be good value.

Mohoric is another rider who I think will be more suited to these climbs than the pure climbers, and he's taken it easy over the last couple of stages.

Lastly, Martinez @ 67 is just too enticing. Ineos have already tried for a stage with Castroviejo, and Martinez is no longer relevant on GC. Ineos's current GC strategy of 'doing f**k all and hoping for something to happen' should allow Martinez a free role today. We'll see.

 

[MrTea1976]

I chose MVDP at 33, Teuns at 25 and DVB at 66. I agree that Ineos will try to win this one.

 

[Laplaz]

LLS

 

[Bolder]

If a break gets away, I hope that Quinn Simmons is there again. He could win on a climb this shallow. Of course, that depends on whether he's recovered from trying to follow Wout's wheel for 100 k the other day...

 

[Netserk]

You want more than 100 ITT kilometres???

Yes. Last year, 58 km of ITT made a difference of 2 seconds between Vingegaard and Pogi. It wouldn't decide the race.

That would be more mountainous than this stage.

Maybe Côte de Megève makes it have more vertical gain per km, but I'm not even sure of that. I would not finish at the altiport (too impractical and too long), but do it like this.

 

[Rackham]

I've rarely seen such a fake news (as Lantern Rouge defines them) series of pseudo climbs.

For example there is literally no such thing as a categorized climb at 2.2km 2.9%. It's called a false flat.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

I've rarely seen such a fake news (as Lantern Rouge defines them) series of pseudo climbs.

For example there is literally no such thing as a categorized climb at 2.2km 2.9%. It's called a false flat.

a fake flat ?

 

[Rackham]

a fake flat ?

La Planche des Faux Flat.

It's the sort of road where no one watching on TV would even realize there's a climb if it wasn't for the categorized polka point at the 'top'.

 

[tobydawq]

Yes. Last year, 58 km of ITT made a difference of 2 seconds between Vingegaard and Pogi. It wouldn't decide the race.


Maybe Côte de Megève makes it have more vertical gain per km, but I'm not even sure of that. I would not finish at the altiport (too impractical and too long), but do it like this.

Then why would we need it?

 

[yaco]

Expect, BEX to be aggressive on stage 10,13,14 and 15, especially considering Durbridge's withdrawal - Could Matthews survive the final climb ?

 

[Netserk]

Then why would we need it?

Because it would change the dynamics, and because it's great. Why would we need cobbles (and the opening ITT, and most other stages, etc.)? Apart from Rogla and O'Connor, the gaps there were indecisive as well.

 

[hayneplane]

Should be an interesting stage as its the most winnable stage for versatile strong riders who cant contest big bunch kicks nor cope with the mountain goats on the real high mountains so every team like Trek, B+B, Cofidis, Astana and Bike Exchange should be throwing their whole team into the breakaway moves.

Not expecting any GC shifts although rest day blues are a tradition of someone in the top 15 having bad legs the first day back.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

All this roadblocking is getting out of hand.
Although EF being late isn't anything new.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546799201144668160

View: https://twitter.com/cmbell310/status/1546799201144668160

 

[spalco]

from a Pidcock interview in the Yorkshire Post today - to create a bit of a hype at least

“If it gets hectic I could try and slip up the road and cause a bit of chaos,” he said of his plans for stage 10. “There’s a lot of mountains to come, it’s a long time suffering up those mountains. We’ve just been saying in the team meeting, you need to enjoy the suffering.”

Not that UAE is likely to allow that, though - even if he probably won't really contest GC anyway in the end.

Is Pidcock riding for GC this year? Might as well try and see where he ends up for future attempts possibly considering his current standing in the GC.

 

[sir fly]

Is Pidcock riding for GC this year? Might as well try and see where he ends up for future attempts possibly considering his current standing in the GC.

How far he stays with the GC contenders tomorrow is about how high he can get.
Without a breakaway cushion I don't consider him a contender. Similar to Alaphilippe.

 

[RedheadDane]

All this roadblocking is getting out of hand.
Although EF being late isn't anything new.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546799201144668160

View: https://twitter.com/cmbell310/status/1546799201144668160

Let's see if the TV2 guys manage to find the Jumbo bus.

 

[The Clogger]

Andreas Kron for me. Perfect stage for him, but as always it's a gamble to get away from the peleton

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Let's see if the TV2 guys manage to find the Jumbo bus.

Well at least BEX are having a good time

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546801344803229697

View: https://twitter.com/GreenEDGEteam/status/1546801344803229697

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546805070687346688

View: https://twitter.com/GreenEDGEteam/status/1546805070687346688

 

[Lequack]

Rogla: So you're helping me today maybe?
Laporte: I only answer to Wout, who even are you

 

[BR2]

Is Pidcock riding for GC this year? Might as well try and see where he ends up for future attempts possibly considering his current standing in the GC.

I don't think he can keep up in the mountains at all, but I am surprised he does have a very good level after this season had been a disappointment for him so far.

 

[gregrowlerson]

These next stages need to be viewed in relation to one another. I'd say the breakaway has about 90% chance here, then around 30% stage 11, 15% stage 12. I think it's more likely that gc riders race harder from further out on stage 12, as let's say in a forum dream world that Roglic got away on the penultimate climb on stage 11 and gained 2 minutes, he'd likely give back most of that on stage 12 anyway.

As many have mentioned, Kamna could win stage 10, but he's far too short. Final climb might not be tough enough for him to get away, and they might ride for Schachmann (and save Kamna for Granon).

Pinot gave it a good go on stage 9, so perhaps it is Storer's try today? Besides, Pinot may save himself for stage 12 (where in true Pinot fashion he'll destroy his breakaway companions, only to be swallowed up by Pogacar and Vingegaard).

Jungels could win again. Why not?

Mohoric would not be a surprise. And what about Matthews or Cort? Both are in good form and seem somewhat due a stage win. Is the climb shallow enough to give them a chance.

Ineos have a host of outside chances too.

Then there is WVA and MVDP. If the former is allowed to go rogue then he is the clear stage favourite. If the latter makes the breakaway then it would suggest a recovery of form, and we have just had a rest day.

But this is a stage when probably one-third of the field look half a chance. But Pogacar? I can't see it. Even if it became a gc stage, on those gradients there's bound to be attacks regularly on the final climb. He and UAE surely won't chase them all. Not with what is on the alpine horizon.

And Nick Schultz? Never heard of him. But if The Barb says he's a chance, then he's a chance.

 

[roundabout]

So Bennett is out as well

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Rogla: So you're helping me today maybe?
Laporte: I only answer to Wout, who even are you

Laporte: Every pedal stroke is like a knife in the back, you say?
Get back to me, when you've tried riding for Cofidis for 8 years!

 

[BR2]

So Bennett is out as well

Covid?

 

[tobydawq]

Because it would change the dynamics, and because it's great. Why would we need cobbles (and the opening ITT, and most other stages, etc.)? Apart from Rogla and O'Connor, the gaps there were indecisive as well.

Cobbles are fun. Time trials are not.