Tour de France Tour de France 2022: Stage 12 (Briançon – Alpe d’Huez, 165.1k)

[Red Rick]

Yeah Pog will just launch full nuclear in the first 3km of Alpe d'Huez.

I predict a 38'15ish climbing time

 

[Cookster15]

Hopefully Pog bounces back. Even if he can take a few seconds it would be a psychological blow. I would be happy to see Nairo rub Movistar's nose in it. Yes the time for the Alpe will be very interesting but the two HC preceding climbs might take the edge off.

 

[The Barb]

This just seems too obvious, right?

Uphill start means only strong climbers get into the break. Pinot highly likely to be amongst them.

TJV has no reason to chase.
Ineos has no reason to chase.
UAE can't chase.

So, breakaway highly likely to win. (I don't rule out it being GC but think <20%)

Pinot highly likely to be the strongest in the break (plus he's proven on Alpe D'Huez).

I know 5-1 seems short for a breakaway rider but I think it's a fair price. I read nothing into the fact that he was nowhere to be seen today. I'm sure he would have been saving himself for Alpe'D'Huez on Bastille Day.

I think the biggest danger to him is that there are attacks from the break between the summit of the Croix De Fer and the base of Alpe D'Huez and everyone looks to him to follow. This could lead to someone getting more than a minute on him by the base of the final climb and being hard to pull back. But who? Well, it would have to be someone with really good legs to have been with the leaders at the top of the Croiz De Fer, who also descends well and solos well. Castroviejo and Majka (won't be surprised to see UAE put him in the break) both fit those descriptions.

 

[sir fly]

Hopefully Pog bounces back. Even if he can take a few seconds it would be a psychological blow. I would be happy to see Nairo rub Movistar's nose in it. Yes the time for the Alpe will be very interesting but the two HC preceding climbs might take the edge off.

Blows are measured in minutes. Handfuls are reassurance.

 

[Bonimenier]

Battle between Pinot and Kamna for the stage win. Hoping Pogacar manages to take back 15-25 secs so the race is wide open going into the Pyrenees, but afraid Thomas will once again dust everyone.

 

[Gratemans]

Another massacre between the favorites but TV director won't show us anything because he needs to show the frenchies in the break on quatorze juillet.

We like to predict a lot of stuff but we all know this is the prediction that will 100% become true. The latter part, at least

 

[JosefK]

Pogi is not finished. This could be another awesome stage (hoping).

 

[Big Doopie]

JV should let the break win every hill/mountain stage to get rid of all bonuses. These will only benefit Pog and on their own could bring Pog back within reach for the last ITT. Remember he took 1’50”+ on Rog in 2020.

So I expect it to be breakaway bonanza the rest of the tour.

Tomorrow: Kamna, Dombrowski, Pinot, Gestchke, Barguil and Mollema and some random Bahrain rider (trying to cover for their back to normal abilities) should be in the break.

 

[Sciatic]

Hopefully Pog bounces back. Even if he can take a few seconds it would be a psychological blow. I would be happy to see Nairo rub Movistar's nose in it. Yes the time for the Alpe will be very interesting but the two HC preceding climbs might take the edge off.

In recent years, Nairo has struggled with recovery when there've been back-to-back HC-type stages. I hope that's not the case tomorrow, but I wouldn't expect too much from him other than to try to follow.

 

[75Driver]

Pogacar will go all out to make up for today. I suspect he’ll win and drop Ving in the process but not enough for yellow.

 

[Netserk]

TJV has no reason to chase.
Ineos has no reason to chase.
UAE can't chase.

So, breakaway highly likely to win. (I don't rule out it being GC but think <20%)

I think they do. Better to strike hard again.

 

[DenisMenchov]

After riding the smartest stage ever yesterday, David Gaudu who was paced all day at his 80% FTP and never going into red, will go thermonuclear on Bastille Day and ride himself into yellow while everyone else will pay for their efforts from the previous day. FDJ train coming for a second day in a row! choo choo

 

[sir fly]

After riding the smartest stage ever yesterday, David Gaudu who was paced all day at his 80% FTP and never going into red, will go thermonuclear on Bastille Day and ride himself into yellow while everyone else will pay for their efforts from the previous day. FDJ train coming for a second day in a row! choo choo

TfdJV?

 

[ppanther92]

I really have no real view on Pogacar for tomorrow. Was it a hunger knock, has it to do with COVID in the team, was he just hitting a wall after wasting energy in basically ever moment he could, is he worse than last year/in spring, is Vingegaard just so much better? All plausible to me, so waiting quite excited on what will happen next. And I actually hope for a strong Pogi. That will make for very aggressive racing.

 

[The Barb]

I think they do. Better to strike hard again.

This is a fair point. I don't think it would be the right strategy (the status quo suits them) but they may well think differently.

 

[zlev11]

Tadej will do 38:00 on the Alpe and let the cards fall where they may

 

[red_flanders]

Tadej to attack on the Alpe, Jumbo should be able to control him. Gains a few and maybe some bonus. Rest of the Tour is a battle. Great stuff today from Jumbo.

 

[movingtarget]

8 man teams, Covid lurking, what could go wrong ? Just throw out the script and be happy you have a race at all. Soon see if Pogacar is done or not. Should be another busy day in the break but can't see them winning this one.

 

[hfer07]

I'd say let the breakaway take the stage win glory while the GC top 5 get to battle it out proper, one on one, going thermonuclear all the way to the finish line.

 

[Tonton]

A lot of riders left a lot of energy on the road today, Teams with riders in podium contention may decide to err on the side of caution: attacking before the final climb can backfire. The explanation took place today and tomorrow should be a skirmish for the GC. By the way, it's steep towards the end of the AdH too. Small risks, small rewards, but 20 seconds matter.

A good break should make it. Not sure that Geschke will be fresh. For the frenchies, Barguil did what I foresaw, he won't have much tomorrow: his gamble made sense, he could have had the biggest win of his career and worn the polka dot jersey on Bastille Day. Rock star. Bardet and Gaudu have GC hopes, did a lot today, so did Latour. I don't think that any other French riders can beat, say, Kamna.

There's only one hope to save the galaxy. I believe.

But the biggest question is: when it's all said and done will Netserk rate this Tour a 2, or, one can dream, a 3?

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

-> The best since 2006.

ALPE D'HUEZ TOP200¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨.1. Marco Pantani | 36:50 | 1 - Pastebin.com

Pastebin.com is the number one paste tool since 2002. Pastebin is a website where you can store text online for a set period of time.

pastebin.com

Three riders make it into the Alpe d'Huez Top 100

© ASO/G.Demouveaux 1. 1995: 36:40 Marco Pantani 22.58 km/h 2. 1997: 36:53 Marco Pantani 22.45 km/h 3. 1994: 37:15 Marco Pantani ...

www.climbing-records.com

Fascinating to read that list. Pantana nearly 3 minutes faster than the fastest post-2006 rider, Quintana, is crazy. Also an interesting reminder that Quintana absolutely destroyed Froome both times up the Alpe. I remembered once, but I’d forgotten it was around a minute and a half both times. In fact, post-2006 times are not what I’d really expect as far as the ranking. I’d expect it to be a stack ranking of climbers, with Quintana, Froome, Contador at the top, but Joachim Rodriguez is second, a minute up on Froome. Contador and A Schleck are nowhere. GT when he won was 2 minutes slower than Quintana. I don’t know that I have any interesting conclusions from that that might pertain to tomorrow, though.

Today clearly was not just Vingegaard being godly. His performance was the level of a top Your rider, for sure, but he was just a minute ahead of fairly washed up old guard riders who have been getting their asses handed to them for years. If Pogacar hadn’t chased down all of those attacks and attacked 4 times and pulled 15 minutes on the Galibier, an did he hadn’t been going for every second in every stage so far, and if TJV hadn’t executed that to perfection, I find it hard to believe Pogacar couldn’t have at least close to Vingegaard. And healthy Roglic same deal. So the question is was it just his choices and TJVs attacks that caused this, was it what, was it altitude, was it food mismanagement, was it illness, or just a bad day?

My assumption is that he will be fine tomorrow or he is sick. And if he is fine tomorrow, I don’t think Vingegaard pulls a repeat and agree with the possibly stubborn take that he will beat Vingegaard in a two-up or small group sprint. I hope that TJV drills it and tries to launch Vingegaard on the Alpe to try to end this. What I would especially love is if Roglic goes in the break, but surely not.

 

[woodburn]

#freekuss

 

[Volderke]

If the break forms in the first 12 K, WvA will be in that break for the intermediate.

 

[Laplaz]

I just hope the fans behave today, I don't want another crash like Nibali on l'Alpe.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Fascinating to read that list. Pantana nearly 3 minutes faster than the fastest post-2006 rider, Quintana, is crazy. Also an interesting reminder that Quintana absolutely destroyed Froome both times up the Alpe. I remembered once, but I’d forgotten it was around a minute and a half both times. In fact, post-2006 times are not what I’d really expect as far as the ranking. I’d expect it to be a stack ranking of climbers, with Quintana, Froome, Contador at the top, but Joachim Rodriguez is second, a minute up on Froome. Contador and A Schleck are nowhere. GT when he won was 2 minutes slower than Quintana. I don’t know that I have any interesting conclusions from that that might pertain to tomorrow, though.

Today clearly was not just Vingegaard being godly. His performance was the level of a top Your rider, for sure, but he was just a minute ahead of fairly washed up old guard riders who have been getting their asses handed to them for years. If Pogacar hadn’t chased down all of those attacks and attacked 4 times and pulled 15 minutes on the Galibier, an did he hadn’t been going for every second in every stage so far, and if TJV hadn’t executed that to perfection, I find it hard to believe Pogacar couldn’t have at least close to Vingegaard. And healthy Roglic same deal. So the question is was it just his choices and TJVs attacks that caused this, was it what, was it altitude, was it food mismanagement, was it illness, or just a bad day?

My assumption is that he will be fine tomorrow or he is sick. And if he is fine tomorrow, I don’t think Vingegaard pulls a repeat and agree with the possibly stubborn take that he will beat Vingegaard in a two-up or small group sprint. I hope that TJV drills it and tries to launch Vingegaard on the Alpe to try to end this. What I would especially love is if Roglic goes in the break, but surely not.

Times have changed a little (pun intended), but also, the Alpe was often the first big GC showdown, whereas since 2006 (wasn't the first mountain stage, but was the first of three in the alps) we haven't really had that scenario (even in 2018 it came after another big MTF). Given that the peloton is likely exhausted from stage 11, I wouldn't expect close to record times this year either.

I agree very much about Vingegaard's performance on Granon not being as amazing as perhaps it looked. A minute clear of Quintana is hardly mind blowing. Consider that Froome defeated Nairo by a similar margin on PSM 2015, and that was a much easier stage and a more prime Quintana. This wasn't like stage 8 2021 dominance at all, but maybe it looked like it because Pogacar had a bad day.

If it was just a bad day, then this race is far from over.