Tour de France Tour de France 2022: Stage 17 (Saint-Gaudens – Peyragudes, 129.7k)

[FrontHeadlock]

It should be, shouldn't it? 20 there's puts him 32 ahead of Vingegaard and there's only 30 left on that stage.

Vingegaard would actually have to win all 3 4th cats that are left after to go over.

Yes, assuming he gets there first.

I think we all agree that his play is to maximize points on that first climb though, and hope that's enough.

Btw, I'm glad they got rid of double points for mountaintop finishes, as it makes the KOM race more exciting.

 

[topcat]

Berg and McNulty ....if they are not wasted tomorrow then we need to ask questions

I'm the inquisitive type today. I always was from a young age.

 

[ppanther92]

It should be, shouldn't it? 20 there's puts him 32 ahead of Vingegaard and there's only 30 left on that stage.

Vingegaard would actually have to win all 3 4th cats that are left after to go over.

So what you are saying is that Geschle should channel his inner Bjerg and do an all out effort on 1 climb. Bjerg btw lost 26min after dropping GC top 10 riders.

 

[tobydawq]

I would tell you you're taking my words too literally but usually you're not even taking my words.

Maybe you just don't understand your words.

 

[ontheroad]

The 4th place rider on GC is now almost 8 minutes down so it looks like the podium places are settled. I think tomorrow will be a predictable stage asJumbo will just allow a large break to go up the road and ride it out for the stage win. They may even put Van Aert in the break again. Geschke will certainly go for the 20 points on offer which will seal the KOTM jersey for him.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

They probably told the other riders to go with a few km to go since it was going to be close and they don't want the whole team to finish OTL.

Probably, but they finished more than four minutes ahead of him, so they weren't exactly in danger, though you never know the accuracy of the calucaltions they're making in the team cars.

 

[titan31]

Ciccone is still a risk as well if the breakaway stays clear (can't really see who is still left to chase), but yeah, normally going all out for those 20pt should be the best plan, and enough to win the jersey

I'd assume UAE try again tomorrow so not sure it'll be for the break. Couldn't see Ciccone winning the stage anyway if the break did go. He hasn't been climbing well enough for that.

 

[Sciatic]

Madouas summed up the stage : “L'étape a été dantesque dès le départ” (the stage was Dantesque from the start).

 

[titan31]

So what you are saying is that Geschle should channel his inner Bjerg and do an all out effort on 1 climb. Bjerg btw lost 26min after dropping GC top 10 riders.

Pretty much, I think he's near guaranteed winning it if he took the top of that first climb first. If he came 2nd, he'd probably have to try hang on and get 1st or 2nd on the next climb.

 

[YavorD]

This forum has a fetish with Grand Tour winners winning a stage and specifically a mountain or atleast up hill stage where they say those who didn’t aren’t as
legitimate. Here we have a rider who won three and still got thrashed. It’s amusing in a non teasing way

Certain Simon won I think 3 mountain stages, yet got trashed.
Besides, Vingo also won a mountain stage and arguably the hardest of them all.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Vingegaard wasn't riding GC in that Vuelta. It's a complete strawman.

He was also very good in it. Think it was him and Hofstede who did some very strong domestique work on the mountains.

I see Vingegaard has his Taxus('s).

 

[CyclistAbi]

Congratulations to Tadej Pogačar for winning the stage.

It was a nice stage to watch. UAE today did a better job with two active teammates left for Pogačar. Compared to whole JV. Ideally McNulty would take the stage today. As for GC action. It's more or less clear, since the stage 11, this is JV race to lose. Vingegaard is a type of cyclist that managed to stay on Pogačar wheel on previous races. Once he got two minutes and a half advantage on Pogačar the race was effectively over. Today's stage confirmed Pogačar likely would be strong enough to not get dropped and would more or less always take bonus seconds on Vingegaard at the finish line. In a mano-a-mano fight. Without JV sacrificing Roglič on stage 11 i would expect for Pogačar to have this race under control at about a minute advantage over Vingegaard. Now Vingegaard just has to stay on Pogačar wheel and he wins the Tour.

But will he and JV manage to do that? Personally i wouldn't be so sure about that. Stage 19 looks risky.


We'll see.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Vingegaard looks completely in control now, but despite all of that the longer I think about it the more I realize how similar the narrative of Pog vs. Vingo has become after the Granon stage, to the narrative of Pog vs. Roglic in 2020.

Pogacar constantly tries to drop Vingegaard but only manages to outsprint him for bonus seconds, Vingegaard looks like he is actually the stronger of the two and might be able to drop Pogacar if only he tried and althought there is still a stage 20 ITT to come there is no way you can gain that much on Vingegaard there, right?

Now change every instance of the name "Vingegaard" in the last sentence to "Roglic" and you will realize it perfectly summarizes what all of us were thinking during the Alps stages in 2020. I'm not saying history is going to repeat itself and there are certainly a few differences that go against Pog compared to two years ago, but I still want to stay cautious thinking of how I've been in a very similar situation before and was completely fooled.

I agree that there is still room for this to be a shocker the way 2020 was a shocker, but there are three key differences:

1. Pogacar has cracked hard on a stage already; Vingegaard has not. And in 2020, Pogacar had not.
2. The final ITT could not have been more uniquely suited to vaulting Pogacar over Roglic. I don't think, if you sub in any other stage of the last 10 Tours in place of that ITT, Roglic loses that Tour. Just poor luck for him. I don't see Pogacar gaining much time this go around. But, of course, we could be in for a different sort of shocker.
3. Roglic came into the 2020 Tour a little off after dropping out of the Dauphine due to a crash / injury; Vingegaard was in top form in the Dauphine and has been in top form this entire Tour.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

It's more or less clear, since the stage 11, this is JV race to lose. Vingegaard is a type of cyclist that managed to stay on Pogačar wheel on previous races. Once he got two minutes and a half advantage on Pogačar the race was effectively over. Today's stage confirmed Pogačar likely would be strong enough to not get dropped and would more or less always take bonus seconds on Vingegaard at the finish line. In a mano-a-mano fight. Without JV sacrificing Roglič on stage 11 i would expect for Pogačar to have this race under control at about a minute advantage over Vingegaard.

I agree. Jumbo played their cards extremely well on stage 11 and it paid off spectacularly. By contrast, Pogacar, for all his merits, completely messed that up, losing minutes to G, Yates, Quintana, Gaudu, Bardet, when he has been head and shoulders above all of those guys in every stage since. Just look at today. It's clear that on that stage that was more of a case of Pogacar cracking than Vingegaard revealing that he is a much better cyclist than Pogacar. Honestly, it was the equivalent of 2020's ITT only in reverse

 

[Breezy1985]

Has the KoM ever been less of a battle than this year?

Bardet won by accident in 2019

 

[Gigs_98]

Difference being that in 2022 Vingegaard actually put 3 minutes into Pogacar when he committed to an attack.

But then you remember that Roglic also dropped Pogacar on the hardest mtf of that Tour and a day later he could have dropped him but decided against riding aggressively. Seriously, the similarities to how TJV handles the situation are striking.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

McNulty, Man of the day. What a performance. Absolutly ridiculous. To me, on par with Padun back-to-back performances in last year Dauphine. He dropped everyone but two guys who are in their own class right now. He put 1 minute to Thomas on penultimate climb and additional 30 or 45s on last climb. And Brandon was all that time in the front, no rest. In the meantime Thomas was riding on the wheels in the descent and first false flat part to the last climb. And still Thomas lost 30s to McNulty in the last climb. Just wow.

I guess UAE has ther "co-leader" for the next year TDF so Pogi doesn't have to react on every move from Jonas/Roglic. He can TT, he can climb better than Kuss and Thomas, is punchy, has some sprint. Just perfect.

Yes, brilliant performance for sure! But from that and to say that he should be a co-leader next year is very far fetched. He's nowhere near the level of Vingegaard and Pogacar. He hasn't had to go all-out every single day, but has been able to preserve energy which is why he could do what he did today.

 

[Red Rick]

But then you remember that Roglic also dropped Pogacar on the hardest mtf of that Tour and a day later he could have dropped him but decided against riding aggressively. Seriously, the similarities to how TJV handles the situation are striking.

Remember when Roglic was a complete moron for attacking and crashing in the Vuelta last year?

The main problems in the 2020 Tour were the misevaluation of the time trial, where it wasn't unreasonable to assume Roglic would do very well. But 2020 were his worst TTs of his peak years, including the Vuelta were he barely won vs a very weak field.

The 2022 TT is much more easy to evaluate, and the gap is much bigger.

 

[CyclistAbi]

It will always be Vingegaard and Roglič that have put 3 minutes into Pogačar on stage 11. Likely there will be an engraving somewhere on the trophy too. If they don't blew it altogether.

P.S. Vingegaard can prove me wrong tomorrow.

 

[YavorD]

But then you remember that Roglic also dropped Pogacar on the hardest mtf of that Tour and a day later he could have dropped him but decided against riding aggressively. Seriously, the similarities to how TJV handles the situation are striking.

That's true, but honestly despite the gap in the hindsight, if Roglic had (say) 1:20 lead before the TT he wouldn't lose it. The gap was 2 minutes because Roglic imploded mentally, I think. Vingo won't drop 2 minutes to the winner of that stage.

 

[Bonimenier]

It will always be Vingegaard and Roglič that have put 3 minutes into Pogačar on stage 11. Likely there will be an engraving somewhere on the trophy too. If they don't blew it altogether.

P.S. Vingegaard can prove me wrong tomorrow.

I'm pretty sure it was only Vingegaard who put 3 minutes into Pogacar, but of course my memory can fail me.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Vingegaard is riding too much like Roglic which I dont like at all. You gotta strike while the iron is hot, you never know what happens tomorrow. Too defensive today as Im absolutely confident he would have dropped Pogi, but I guess they all waited for the super funny, super steep ramp? I guess he waited for Pogi to attack and then to counter, but it never came.. not only do you win the stage (presumably) if you go from further out, but you also reverse the bonus seconds and gain a few seconds on top of that most likely. I don't know man, I dont like this super conservative Vingegaard, but then again, tomorrows stage is better and Hautacam is better, so I guess he can find some seconds there.

Yes, I wouldn't be super confident with 2 min on the TT. I have seen what Pogacar can do in those circumstances, and hitting that 3 min mark would result in Pogacar not smelling blood.

Then again, maybe Im wrong here and Vingegaard was on limit, but I doubt it.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@Valv.Piti

If he can then in my opinion it would be appropriate to do that tomorrow.

 

[ciranda]

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[YavorD]

Why are people so shocked of McNulty? We often see massive domestique performances in the trird weeks if riders peak for it and didn't do much in the first 2 weeks. For the record, can't recall McNulty doing much this Tour.

Also, maybe it's indeed the riders that make the race. I the the quality/depth of this field is not great, but the rest was blown apart on a regular, not so hard Cat1.

As for the battle for Yellow, already on PDBF was clear that Pogacar will have hard times with Jonas, seems to be true.
It actually kinda reminds me of Rasmussen/ Contador, top 2 climbers casually obliterating the field at will. What I'm surprised Is why Rasmussen doesn't try at least a single attack, maybe on the limit himself? Maybe waiting for Aubisque..

With Thomas as clear third, I actually think that even with Roglic in, he'd give him a run for the podium.