Tour de France Tour de France 2022: Stage 18 (Lourdes – Hautacam, 143.2k)

[Rollthedice]

My take might be controversial here but I don't think this field is that strong. Thomas is 36 & Ineos aren't at their best.

If peak Bernal & Roglic were getting dropped by McNulty, then sure I'd be saying 'wow', but look at the names behind: Thomas, Bardet, Gaudu, Quintana (what year is this?).

I still think peak Pogacar should be going faster on that final climb.

On paper yes but all the numbers I'm seeing from guys who analyze climbing times, the insane overall speed of the peloton point to a very high level. Peak Bernal not so sure he stays with Pog/Vinge, peak Rog maybe hangs a bit more. For example I think Carapaz would be below Thomas level. The only rider at the moment who I see coming close to these two would be Hindley.

 

[Gargamel35]

When everybody thought Pog is the next big thing. Unbeatable monster in GC. It took 2 years for even better monster to arrive. In a shape of a guy that looks like he hadn't eaten in months and couldn't climb 5 stairs. I think Jonas can drop Pog in high mountains anytime he wants.

When two Slovenians argued who will win this thing, there strolls a Danish guy.

 

[RobertCrawley]

When everybody thought Pog is the next big thing. Unbeatable monster in GC. It took 2 years for even better monster to arrive. In a shape of a guy that looks like he hadn't eaten in months and couldn't climb 5 stairs. I think Jonas can drop Pog in high mountains anytime he wants.

When two Slovenians argued who will win this thing, there strolls a Danish guy.

How many people called the race over after Pog won at Longwy?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Come on Pog, this is your last chance! Atleast give us a good show!

 

[dutchdescent]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549778981238472706

He ****ing WHAT?

Surely bluff?

 

[JosefK]

Surely bluff?

Yes, surely some mind games thrown in by Jonas there. If McNulty does another ride like he did today on stage 17, the forum will seize up. Brandon was the strongest guy on the day. He towed Pog and Vinegar up and down the last two mountains, nose in the wind until the final 150 meters.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Not much analysis needed, Pogicar and Vingeggard will be racing mano a mano on the climbs. Vingegaard will hang with pogacar

 

[Andre]

Was Majka's injury due to his chain breaking?

 

[RobertCrawley]

Was Majka's injury due to his chain breaking?

Mais oui.

 

[jimmy_8888888]

How much time does Pogacar need to take back on this stage to give himself a chance in the time trial?

around a min and a half minimum

 

[RobertCrawley]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549778981238472706

View: https://twitter.com/Ddozmoe/status/1549778981238472706?s=20&t=NPFc7DD3VX4REAKFyJjfNg

 

[Lequack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549778981238472706

View: https://twitter.com/Ddozmoe/status/1549778981238472706?s=20&t=NPFc7DD3VX4REAKFyJjfNg

UAE sport director said they knew on the penultimate climb they weren't getting rid of Vingegaard so they just went for a stage win. So it makes sense the pace was easier if that is true.

 

[sir fly]

UAE sport director said they knew on the penultimate climb they weren't getting rid of Vingegaard so they just went for a stage win. So it makes sense the pace was easier if that is true.

Sensible PR.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Pogacar would only need to take back thirty seconds on Hautacam to give himself at least a 20% chance of taking yellow in the time trial, because psychologically he would feel that Vingegaard is weakening compared to him. Obviously the more time now the better, but still. Final time trials probably relate 40% to recovery rather than just 100% to time trial ability.

 

[Cookster15]

Pogi needs to throw everything including the kitchen sink at Vingo who keeps telling us its "easy". If Pogacar still can't shake the limpet then who knows maybe we see a Rasmussen 2005 TT. I can only hope.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

My take might be controversial here but I don't think this field is that strong. Thomas is 36 & Ineos aren't at their best.

If peak Bernal & Roglic were getting dropped by McNulty, then sure I'd be saying 'wow', but look at the names behind: Thomas, Bardet, Gaudu, Quintana (what year is this?).

I still think peak Pogacar should be going faster on that final climb.

I have also made this case elsewhere and mostly been shot down. If you go by numbers, the numbers indicate peak Roglic is right there with these guys. Mainly, Vingegaard has leveled up to Pog and Rog, Rog crashed out, and Pog had a horrendous day due to too much energy expenditure and excellent Jumbo tactics. Agreed on the references (Thomas, Bardet, Gaudu, Quintana, Yates) sort of saying it all. None of those guys have been competing with Roglic and Pogacar for years now. Why would they suddenly start not? The minute gap to G on stage 11 was no surprise; the 3 minutes to Pogacar was a huge deviation from previous performance.

 

[johnymax]

Geschke will just take the first HC and then it's done.

Only if Pogi lets him. I think he is going for polka dot now, that's why he's been doing all those 200m sprints on top of the mountains.

 

[Kwibus]

I have also made this case elsewhere and mostly been shot down. If you go by numbers, the numbers indicate peak Roglic is right there with these guys. Mainly, Vingegaard has leveled up to Pog and Rog, Rog crashed out, and Pog had a horrendous day due to too much energy expenditure and excellent Jumbo tactics. Agreed on the references (Thomas, Bardet, Gaudu, Quintana, Yates) sort of saying it all. None of those guys have been competing with Roglic and Pogacar for years now. Why would they suddenly start not? The minute gap to G on stage 11 was no surprise; the 3 minutes to Pogacar was a huge deviation from previous performance.

Average speed this TdF is the highest ever. So far they are 0,5km'/h faster on average.
I haven't checked but what I hear from television is that Vingo and Poga are almost as fast as the impossible times set around 96-98.

 

[Lequack]

Meanwhile on Twitter

 

[ontheroad]

I’m not sure what to make of those quotes by Vingegaard. If he thought the pace was easy on Peyragudes then I’m sure the rest of the peloton must be left scratching their heads as they (Pog and JV) still rode it almost 1 minute faster than the next rider and that after smashing the d‘Azet record on the penultimate climb!! He did look the fresher of the 2 riders at the finish though in a role reversal of PDBF. Pog actually was the one who looked shattered. If Vingegaard still has more left under the bonnet and he claims that tomorrow will suit him better, then he could go nuclear on Hautacam himself.

Or it could be just a big bluff and he was left shattered after today. From reading his body language though he definitely didn’t look it.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

What I think will happen: Pogacar will try with multiple attacks and fail to get any distance from Vingegaard. Ultimately, Vingegaard will attack with 1-2km to go and put 10-20 seconds into Pogacar, winning the stage.

What I hope will happen: Pogacar will try with multiple attacks and finally snap the elastic, riding away from Vingegaard. Ultimately, Pogacar will TT to the finish, putting about 2 minutes into Vingegaard, setting up for an ITT showdown.

 

[RobertCrawley]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549727565358718977

View: https://twitter.com/TourDeJose/status/1549727565358718977?s=20&t=8n2rad2JiFxHfivilAivmQ

 

[saunaking]

Hoping JV smashes Hautacam like Nibz did

 

[JosefK]

How many people called the race over after Pog won at Longwy?

I thought it was in the bag for Pog until stage 11 happened. -- He could still win it.

 

[topcat]

Tomorrow, I think Pogacar will go bananas and do Hautacam in 36 minutes and set up a showdown in the tt. Tomorrow, I'm sure that I'm going fishing.