Tour de France Tour de France 2022: Stage 18 (Lourdes – Hautacam, 143.2k)

[JosefK]

Was Majka's injury due to his chain breaking?

I read that he got the injury when his chain snapped.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

I still think Pogacar can take back a lot of time from Vingegaard..... once he can create a small gap that Vingegaard cannot close immediately. Then, in addition to the physical aspect, the psychological aspect also starts to play.
Pogacar announced that the team would adopt a different tactic in the final Pyrenean stage. I wonder what else it could be. Today, Bjerg and McNulty rode everyone out of the wheel with an enormous pace, with the exception of Vingegaard. The day before McNulty was in the early attack.
What other tactics are there then? Pogacar joining the early attack ?

I think he means he'll attack on the penultimate climb, the Col de Spandelles. If he can make a small gap there on Vingegaard, he will descend faster. Vingegaard may panic, make some mistakes in the descent. If Pogacar can start the final climb with 30 seconds, I think he can finish another minute. With the bonuses, this means that Pogacar still has to win back a good 30 seconds in the time trial. With the psychological advantage, that's not impossible.

Still, Vingegaard remains my favorite. Unless Vingegaard is indeed a little behind on the penultimate climb. Then the scenario described earlier can take place.

 

[Sciatic]

Jonas to drop Pogacar on the mount doom of Danish cycling. Pogi didn't look great near the end today, I think Vingegaard can drop him.
I hope history will repeat itself 15 years later on the final mountain stage, strictly speaking of what happened on the road of course...

What you said about projecting tomorrow’s outcome based on how Pog looked after the end of the stage today seems intuitively correct. But I think I’ve seen enough examples of where a riders ability (where does that come from—training? genetic inheritance?) to recover from one stage to the next can outweigh how depleted they are by a single taxing performance. What comes to mind is the ‘87 Tour, when Roche was dropped (by Delgado I guess) and looked to be suffering to the extremet so as not to lose more time; when he collapsed after crossing the line and they wrapped him in a blanket—I thought he probably would go to the hospital, and I was certain there was no way he would win that Tour. And then was stunned to see the high level he could perform at in the following days to secure the victory. All that to say that I wouldn’t feel confident judging how Pogacar will do tomorrow based on how he looked at the finish today.

 

[rallybanana]

Jakobsen last to finish alone with 17 seconds to spare. It's going to be another tough day tomorrow.

Ambitious prediction...not that Jakobsen finishes last but the 17 seconds part

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Geschke will just take the first HC and then it's done.

Hopefully he will, I'd be gutted for him if he lost it. But saying that it doesn't look that good to be honest, he really needs to take Aubisque.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

How much time does Pogacar need to take back on this stage to give himself a chance in the time trial?

If we take the Dauphine TT as to guide for us, he would have lost 90 seconds to Ganna if we took seconds per k if it was 40 k long. So imagining Pogi can do something special, he'll probably needs to take a minute out of him or a bit more.

 

[rallybanana]

Pogi needs to throw everything including the kitchen sink at Vingo who keeps telling us its "easy". If Pogacar still can't shake the limpet then who knows maybe we see a Rasmussen 2005 TT. I can only hope.

I'd prefer to see Vingo being hit by a kitchen sink than losing because of a Rasmussen TT. Nobody wants to see a rider lose with a Rasmussen TT.

 

[Gratemans]

I have also made this case elsewhere and mostly been shot down. If you go by numbers, the numbers indicate peak Roglic is right there with these guys. Mainly, Vingegaard has leveled up to Pog and Rog, Rog crashed out, and Pog had a horrendous day due to too much energy expenditure and excellent Jumbo tactics. Agreed on the references (Thomas, Bardet, Gaudu, Quintana, Yates) sort of saying it all. None of those guys have been competing with Roglic and Pogacar for years now. Why would they suddenly start not? The minute gap to G on stage 11 was no surprise; the 3 minutes to Pogacar was a huge deviation from previous performance.

Average speed this TdF is the highest ever. So far they are 0,5km'/h faster on average.
I haven't checked but what I hear from television is that Vingo and Poga are almost as fast as the impossible times set around 96-98.

Quoted both of you because I agree. The gap with the riders behind is a canyon. Make of that what you will.

To me, they were/are both on their absolute limit and aren't confident enough to actually put in a decisive attack. The last climb tomorrow suits itself better for that than the ramp to Peyragudes today, but I still think a re-run of todays stage has a large chance of happening.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

When everybody thought Pog is the next big thing. Unbeatable monster in GC. It took 2 years for even better monster to arrive. In a shape of a guy that looks like he hadn't eaten in months and couldn't climb 5 stairs. I think Jonas can drop Pog in high mountains anytime he wants.

When two Slovenians argued who will win this thing, there strolls a Danish guy.

I think if Vingegaar could drop him whenever he wants he would have done so today just to win the stage, because why not if he is much stronger?

If Pogacar doesn't have his jour sans he wins this precisely because Vingegaar can't just drop him as he likes. But he had this bad day so that doesn't matter.

Whatever happens tomorrow it's very premature to call an end to Pogacars dominance, even though he might loose this one.

 

[JosefK]

If we take the Dauphine TT as to guide us, he'd lost 90 seconds to Ganna if we took seconds per k if it was 40 k long. So imagining Pogi can to something special, he'll probably needs to take a minute out of him or a bit more.

And that is a possibility. Of course, it could go the other way, too. The anticipation for this queen stage is crazy, rightfully so.

 

[The Barb]

I have a very hard job knowing if this will be a breakaway or GC day.

Despite yesterday, I don't think UAE can turn it into a GC day. The climbs are longer and it would be a lot to expect Berg to replicate what he just did. Common sense would suggest TJV don't need to make it a GC day (the potential for bonus seconds works in Pogacar's favour) but if Vingegaard is feeling good they might be tempted to chase, especially given that they no longer need to conserve their domestiques. I expect Kuss to be much strong on these kind of climbs.

If it's a GC day then I favour Vingegaard over Pogacar. No other GC rider seems to have much chance.

If it's a breakaway day then the list of potential winners is shorter than usual. Lutsenko was very good today (and won't mind the hotter conditions for Stage 18) and Schultz has been amazing the last two days.

Overall I think Lutsenko offers the best value, with a saver on Vingegaard. But not hugely confident about anything.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

And that is a possibility. Of course, it could go the other way, too. The anticipation for this queen stage is crazy, rightfully so.

Though I don't know exactly how well Vingegaar does at long distances, I think it is not in Pogacars advantage that all the important mountain stages are short. He's a very good classics rider and even though I know he ecxells at shorter distances too I don't think Vingegaards frail body would like around 200k too much. But I might be wrong of course.

 

[Savant12]

Cybjerg to do it all again, was entertaining yesterday. Hirschi to suddenly have some legs. McNulty to set up Pog for the last climb.

Or WVA destroys everyone and sets up Vingo Rasmussen for the win.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Though I don't know exactly how well Vingegaar does at long distances, I think it is not in Pogacars advantage that all the important mountain stages are short. He's a very good classics rider and even though I know he ecxells at shorter distances too I don't think Vingegaards frail body would like around 200k too much. But I might be wrong of course.

Very good point.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Though I don't know exactly how well Vingegaar does at long distances, I think it is not in Pogacars advantage that all the important mountain stages are short. He's a very good classics rider and even though I know he ecxells at shorter distances too I don't think Vingegaards frail body would like around 200k too much. But I might be wrong of course.

How dare you accuse the French of creating a course that suits Julian Alaphilippe.

 

[Andre]

I predict Quintana to win the stage and take over third place overall. I don't think much will happen between Tadej and Jonas as far as time differences.

 

[Volderke]

Yes, this stage was designed for the Condor of the Andes, the singing chameleon, the Nairoman… show them how to dance Nairo!

View: https://youtu.be/Kp7J9fqhmo8

 

[StryderHells]

Though I don't know exactly how well Vingegaar does at long distances, I think it is not in Pogacars advantage that all the important mountain stages are short. He's a very good classics rider and even though I know he ecxells at shorter distances too I don't think Vingegaards frail body would like around 200k too much. But I might be wrong of course.

Well the Ventoux stage at last years Tour was 198.9 k and his “frail” body handled that pretty well, maybe the extra 1.1 k and he completely collapses losing 5 minutes.

 

[Leinster]

How dare you accuse the French of creating a course that suits Julian Alaphilippe.

I would have thought a MSR/Double Worlds winner would LIKE more 200km+ stages, bur maybe that’s just me.

 

[search]

If it's a breakaway day then the list of potential winners is shorter than usual. Lutsenko was very good today (and won't mind the hotter conditions for Stage 18)

is Vino still around? He seems to have found good "motivation" for the team yesterday

 

[Stringer Bell]

I just don’t know how UAE keep this as a GC stage win day. If jumbo are smart, and so far their tactics have been questionable, then a big break will go up the road with Benoot and WVA in it, there is zero chance of bjerg, hirschi and mcnulty controlling that. When Pogi goes then Jonas should have teammates up the road. Jumbo should be allowing today’s break as much time as they want -assuming nominee dangerous is in it

 

[Lequack]

McNulty: "We had a plan to accelerate on the second climb: Pogacar asked me to go for a quarter of an hour flat out, and it turned into almost an hour ."

 

[Jan the Man]

Suspect it Will be tougher for UAE to prevent a large break from forming and contesting the stage. realistically Pog would need to claw to within a minute of Jonas for there to be any real jeopardy in the TT- bad days can obviously happen but difficult to see it happening

 

[solo80k]

Pidcock for a stage. Vino for the crown.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

What I think will happen: Pogacar will try with multiple attacks and fail to get any distance from Vingegaard. Ultimately, Vingegaard will attack with 1-2km to go and put 10-20 seconds into Pogacar, winning the stage.

What I hope will happen: Pogacar will try with multiple attacks and finally snap the elastic, riding away from Vingegaard. Ultimately, Pogacar will TT to the finish, putting about 2 minutes into Vingegaard, setting up for an ITT showdown.

My thoughts as well.