Tour de France Tour de France 2022: Stage 19 (Castelnau-Magnoac – Cahors, 188.3k)

[wansteadimp]

Again, really hard to say with confidence if this is sprint or breakaway.

One might think this is 90% likely to be a sprint but "flat" stages late in Grand Tours (after mountains) often get weird. This is possibly even more the case at the Tour when there is still the Champs Elysee to think about, which carries more prestige than this.

Looking at penultimate Tour "flat" stages in the last ten years, when they come after mountains (small sample size, I know):

2021 - Stage 19 - Breakaway wins (Mohoric)
2020 - Stage 19 - Late attack wins (SK Andersen)
2019 - N/A - Champs Elysee the only flat stage after mountains
2018 - N/A - Champs Elysee the only flat stage after mountains
2017 - Stage 19 - Breakaway wins (EBH)
2016 - N/A - Champs Elysee the only flat stage after mountains
2015 - N/A - Champs Elysee the only flat stage after mountains
2014 - Stage 19 - Late attack wins (Navardauskas)
2013 - N/A - Champs Elysee the only flat stage after mountains
2012 - Stage 18 - Cavendish wins bunch sprint

I think today's stage is still probably a sprint, because at least five teams will think they have a worthwhile chance in a sprint, but everyone is very tired. And it'll be very hot. If, say, three of those five interested sprint teams get a man in the breakaway then it won't be coming back.

So, anyway, for me:

Philipsen (3-1) in case it's a sprint. I think he's the fastest right now, plus the slight uphill finish suits him, plus he appears to have coped better in the mountains than the other sprinters (hasn't finished in the last group on any of the last three stages).

DeWulf (275-1) from the breakaway. I think this guy has really good legs. He looked super powerful getting into the early breakaway yesterday, even though it didn't stick. He's generally good at making breaks (got into 3 in the last 5 stages of last year's Vuelta) can win solo and has a decent sprint if it comes down to a small group. He's a total longshot, obviously, but I think he's paying at least double what he should be.

2012 - wqs that the stage where only Cav got past the break away?

 

[The Barb]

2012 - wqs that the stage where only Cav got past the break away?

Yes! There was a sharp Cat 4 that everyone (betting markets etc) thought would mean he had little chance but Sky (including Wiggins in yellow) pulled it back late. Peak Cav really was something to behold and that day was one of his best.

 

[Arked]

I'm gutted for Geschke.

Well. You can't hope for Polka Dot jersey when going AWOL on last two key mountain stages and not winning a single one. It's sad but it is what it is.

 

[RedheadDane]

Well. You can't hope for Polka Dot jersey when going AWOL on last two key mountain stages and not winning a single one. It's sad but it is what it is.

He went AWOL - or I suppose MIA would be a better term, pretty sure he was allowed to not be able to keep up - because he tried too hard in the beginning.
Was it tactically smart? No.
Was it awesomely fought? Yes.

I think it would have been a little less bitter if he'd lost it to Ciccone, or some other guy who actually cared about it. But even then; can you imagine how huge it would have been for Cofidis to win a jersey at the Tour?

 

[Mosul]

2012 - wqs that the stage where only Cav got past the break away?

Matthew Harley Goss and Sagan also passed the breakaway that day (or what remained of it - just LLS and Roche)

 

[roundabout]

Mas out with COVID

https://twitter.com/x/status/1550425213216620545

View: https://twitter.com/Movistar_Team/status/1550425213216620545

 

[Samu Cuenca]

No Mas

 

[Eyeballs Out]

If this stage was in the first week it would probably be total chaos with the quite strong cross/cross-tailwind and narrow finale. Now, I doubt any team will be bothered. Quickstep of old would have bothered but this current team will probably be doing its best to try to keep their sprinter in the race. Ineos will probably be saving the likes of Ganna and Van Baarle for tomorrow's TT. This is one of those stages where the break could prove difficult to catch if they've gone fairly steadily and they've got any kind of gap in the last 30 km

 

[triley36]

Losing Mas’s GC points makes Movistar very much at risk of UCI relegation. Valverde will not have a stress free ride into the sunset this fall.

 

[search]

Mads Pedersen is sick, according to Danish TV. He doesn't plan to get involved today.

Trek still has Stuyven for a sprint, but I guess they'll prefer to join the attacks now.

 

[RedheadDane]

Van Aert is wearing a skinsuit.
Be aware!

 

[KZD]

Mas out with COVID

https://twitter.com/x/status/1550425213216620545

View: https://twitter.com/Movistar_Team/status/1550425213216620545

Terrible news, I guess that he has some sypmtoms otherwise it wouldn't make sense to lose the UCI points that his GC position would givehim.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

First proto - break

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

Strong first attempt at a break.

 

[Potomac]

Well the stage should look good from the choppers.

 

[Earns1985]

Quick-Step rider in the breakaway means that they will not chase. At least in the beginning...

 

[Fantastico]

Losing Mas’s GC points makes Movistar very much at risk of UCI relegation. Valverde will not have a stress free ride into the sunset this fall.

It would have been pretty bad already for their designated leader to only get 150 points at his season highlight, but no points at all are really alarming.

 

[Rackham]

No Frenchmen in the break.

Unless a miracle happens, this looks like it'll be only the third TdF in history without a French stage win, i.e. the others being in 1926 (we all remember that one really well) & 1999.

 

[RedheadDane]

First proto - break

It's Taco Time!

 

[Tim Cahill]

Thanks for that update Rob

Because Ryo isn't here;

#FreeLopez #JeSuisSuperman

 

[titan31]

That's a strong break. That could easily stay away if it's not kept under control early by the sprint teams.

 

[RedheadDane]

That's a strong break. That could easily stay away if it's not kept under control early by the sprint teams.

And two of the "sprint teams" have riders in the break.
One of those sprint teams have a sick sprinter.
The other a sprinter who barely made it through the mountains.

B. Thomas forgot to get rid of his mask before the stage. But he's a well-behaved boy; carrying it in his pocket.

 

[will-10]

Van Aert is wearing a skinsuit.
Be aware!

probably a CN joke I've missed, but he's had one on every day?

 

[sir fly]

Not sure about the wind.
The standings offer pretty good shelter in the case of.

 

[titan31]

And two of the "sprint teams" have riders in the break.
One of those sprint teams have a sick sprinter.
The other a sprinter who barely made it through the mountains.

B. Thomas forgot to get rid of his mask before the stage. But he's a well-behaved boy; carrying it in his pocket.

Ya, really up to Alpecin, BikeExchange and Lotto. Id assume Jumbo will help too by just having Van Hooydonck work but will need the others to do a lot of work.