Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 13: Châtillon-sur-Chalaronne - Grand Colombier, 137.8k

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I think a break of 15-20 riders will go in the beginning.

They will get time on the flat in the first 80km. No team will want to push it here, shouldnt push it. Peloton will go slow.

or 4 guys, as nobody expects the breakaway to stay clear. Then UAE does nothing, though, and "Davide Bais" (insert whoever seems adequate) takes the stage.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Would be negative as *** but having Van Aert drag the breakaway as fast as possible to take away the stage win and bonuses might be a shout here.

MIghty Wout may be saved for the remaining two stages of the triple.

 

[Red Rick]

Would be negative as *** but having Van Aert drag the breakaway as fast as possible to take away the stage win and bonuses might be a shout here.

Could be.

Grand Colombier is an Unipuerto where having a domestique on the final climb can be super handy as well.

 

[fbjim]

I think it's entirely possible the break takes this one. I could see the peloton giving a strong break 15 minutes here. Stage profile isn't dissimilar to Puy de Dome.

 

[Miha81]

I could be very wrong but I don't think any of two GC guys is willing to put it on the line since this is first of tree mountain stages.

I think break gets it similar to Puy de Dome stage and difference will be very small or none.

 

[Salvarani]

or 4 guys, as nobody expects the breakaway to stay clear. Then UAE does nothing, though, and "Davide Bais" (insert whoever seems adequate) takes the stage.

It is Bastille day tomorrow and many will be interested. I reckon there will be a bigger group.

Peloton going slow on the flat.

Here for the entertainment though.

 

[Cookster15]

This has Pog's name written all over it. If he could win in 2020 then he is an even surer chance this time. Best Vingegaard can hope for is to finish together, but concede another 4 bonus seconds before the weekend.

The other strong possibility is WvA gets into a break to scoop up any time bonuses and the big two finish together.

 

[Pantani_lives]

[EDITED]
The last French winners on Quatorze Juillet are Warren Barguil in 2017 and David Moncoutié in 2004. Last year Pidcock spoiled the party.

Four times in the past ten years the winner on Bastille Day went on to win the Tour: in 2013, '14, '15 and '21.

Is there a Frenchman who can light up the festivities? Or will the eventual Tour winner stamp his authority again?

 

[Potomac]

Nothing will happen until the last 4km

 

[Krzysztof_O]

This has Pog's name written all over it. If he could win in 2020 then he is an even surer chance this time. Best Vingegaard can hope for is to finish together, but concede another 4 bonus seconds before the weekend.

The other strong possibility is WvA gets into a break to scoop up any time bonuses and the big two finish together.

I'm not that sure that UAE will keep the breakaway on leash. If they do then Pogacar is the main favourite OFC.

 

[search]

The last Frenchman who won on Quatorze Juillet is still David Moncoutié in 2004. Last year Pidcock spoiled the party.

to be fair, Anthony Perez was the only Frenchman in the breakaway, and he finished 10 minutes down. Let's not blame Pidcock too much .

Perez was in the breakaway the year before as well, by the way. Could go for three in a row.

 

[RedheadDane]

The last Frenchman who won on Quatorze Juillet is still David Moncoutié in 2004.

I think Barguil will be rather sad to hear that.
You might want to double check the results for 2017.

 

[Boehmand]

as nobody expects the breakaway to stay clear

I disagree.

I think it is a high priority for Jumbo to have the break go clear, so Vingegaard just has to stick to Pogacar's wheel and not worry about bonus seconds - and to force UAE to kill themselves chasing it down, thus isolating Pogacar on the climb. I could even see them commit Kuss and Keldermann to the break, to be able to stay away up the climb.

I noticed Laengen and Bjerg taking a "rest day" today, so they should be firing on all cylinders tomorrow, but with 75K flat ahead of the first gradients, and every Frenchman in the peloton wanting to hit the break, while no other team is interested in controlling the break, it will be a tall order.

Saturday/Sunday both teams will want guys out in front, so the dynamics change, but not tomorrow IMO.

 

[Mayomaniac]

If Kuss were a true Sinner he'd get destroyed by a Serb tomorrow

If you said that around here at the wrong bar (where you find the diehard Sinner fans) you might get in trouble.

 

[Mayomaniac]

This is Sepp's chance at a start towards real redemption.

If he destroys this stage to right the wrong of 2020, then they bring back Col de la Lusette and he rips it from the bottom and destroys the field, especially if he then gives an interview afterwards about how important it is for your team leader to gain time on their rivals wherever possible, his spirit will be saved and his soul will be cleansed of the blight that has afflicted it for the last three years.

And what if he doesn all that, but puts some glitter on his face and has a forced smile on his face all the time while Blythe or another Eurosport goon shouts "Come on, Sepp!"? He's an American with a XC skiing background after all, maybe we even get an interview about how inspirational Jessie Diggins was to him and how he wanted to pay tribute to her and honour the French national holiday by putting some glitter on his face.

 

[zlev11]

if UAE doesn't chase the break for the stage win they're dumb

 

[nightowl]

In years past UAE would absolutely have paced all day for the stage win - but given how this tour has gone and how hard the next couple of stages are I feel like they may not go all-in. I kind of doubt Jumbo will want to pace the last climb either, so if some strong climbers make it into a big enough break I could see them staying away for the stage win.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Just want to see Pogacar going bananas in this climb.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

And what if he doesn all that, but puts some glitter on his face and has a forced smile on his face all the time while Blythe or another Eurosport goon shouts "Come on, Sepp!"? He's an American with a XC skiing background after all, maybe we even get an interview about how inspirational Jessie Diggins was to him and how he wanted to pay tribute to her and honour the French national holiday by putting some glitter on his face.

I will probably be banned from the city of Kotor for life.

 

[Poursuivant]

Considering St 10 and St 12, and their craziness, stage 20 could be carnage

 

[search]

I disagree.

I was more talking about a potential scenario than my own opinion there. But yeah, with the bastille day it's probably out of the window anyway - although it had less of an influence than you would think the past years.

 

[dercuforever]

Pog attacks final steep part then motodrafts away

that's the way

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

I disagree.

I think it is a high priority for Jumbo to have the break go clear, so Vingegaard just has to stick to Pogacar's wheel and not worry about bonus seconds - and to force UAE to kill themselves chasing it down, thus isolating Pogacar on the climb. I could even see them commit Kuss and Keldermann to the break, to be able to stay away up the climb.

I noticed Laengen and Bjerg taking a "rest day" today, so they should be firing on all cylinders tomorrow, but with 75K flat ahead of the first gradients, and every Frenchman in the peloton wanting to hit the break, while no other team is interested in controlling the break, it will be a tall order.

Saturday/Sunday both teams will want guys out in front, so the dynamics change, but not tomorrow IMO.

Your points seems reliable, but as this edition has turned out so far, I'll be surprised if TJV sticks to plans of logics here

 

[RobertCrawley]

Pogi is behind 17 seconds, and Jonas may be a better time trialer, as he proved last year. So we'll see how Jonas feels as he tries to follow Pogi's wheel. If Pogi falters, it could be a seriously bad day for him.

If I were UAE, either here on the next two hard mountain days, I would have Yates hit several hard accelerations and force Jonas to respond, the way Jumbo used Rog to bait Pogi to respond last year. That would tire Jonas out a little bit before Pogi made his move. If Yates is capable, that is.

Weather will not be a factor at 74F/23.3C

 

[HelloDolly]

Majka will drill the climb and Pog will go for it