Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 13: Châtillon-sur-Chalaronne - Grand Colombier, 137.8k

[Valv.Piti]

Sean Kelly said Geraint Thomas was going to win the Monte Lussari Giro ITT. He had his 'reasons' to believe that as well.

I mean I get the certain amount of logic behind the Vingegaard prediction, i.e. certainly based on the 2022 Tour when Vingegaard (on Hautacam & in the ITT) & all of Jumbo finished the Tour very strongly. But Pog has raced much more conservatively in this 2023 TdF & he only has to follow Vingegaard's wheel & not launch huge attacks with the aim of taking minutes (which was the case after Granon).

I also have a little doubt regarding Vinge's peak level & when he attained it (or more precisely how long he's been peaking). He might have peaked too early, basically. They got it right last year & in 2021 but considering how strong he was in the Dauphiné I raise this question because it is something which has afflicted Jumbo's star riders in the past, including both WvA (in monuments & the Worlds) & Roglič in GT's.

It's just something I have at the back of my mind whilst watching this Tour. We'll find out more today (& definitely tomorrow).

I think he has peaked too soon (or too long). He looked scary good, I can't remember a Dauphine win that dominant. On the other hand, his competition was suspect, there was no Contador-Froome duel in that race. It was the notorious great GT-rider Hindley, but maybe not so much week long races, and Ben.. O'Connor. So its hard to tell just how good he was, but he must have been close to 100%. Pogacar on the other hand, we know his preparation and its hard not to take what we know about that, look at the race so far and conclude he's just getting better every day just in perfect time for the very hard Alps.

Another thing, if you looked at how Jumbo and especially Vingegaard was riding yesterday, you can't help but to think Vingegaard is simply just using more energy than Pogacar. Pogacar always had 1-2 teammates around and floating around, meanwhile Vingegaard looked out of sorts, responding himself multiple times to ADAM YATES, without a team at crucial point, looking nervous and eating some wind he didn't need to. Not a good stage at all, Im100% certain stuff like that will come back and bite you today if they race it real hard.

Pog for the stage and the jersey today.

 

[Valv.Piti]

And yes, it is indeed quite funny how we talk about Pogacar as being not so great in hard ridden stages, when he's the winner of Tour of Flanders and again and again have shown he has a monster recovery. Vuelta 19, Tour 20, Tour 21, Tour 22 he looked great. Dont sleep on that day in the Vuelta he crawled onto the podium, then La Planche, two relatively easy mountain stages victories in 2021, and Tour 22 attacking each day on the second last climb, winning a stage as well.

 

[Aimar16]

These stages with late start times are very annoying

 

[bizzmane89]

lol @ this comment.

It's only cycling, i.e. we could all be totally wrong here (obviously including the DS's). I have been ultra wrong in the past on countless occasions. If I was never wrong about cycling I'd have become a millionaire via online gambling sites.

But there's a degree of plausible scenarios to consider, i.e. scenarios which can be viewed through either the prism of bias or neutrality. It means when people say Vingegaard will finish the Tour strongly, or copes better in the heat, or is better at high altitude, or likes harder stages before major difficulties, from my chair here there's enough counter-evidence to raise questions & doubts over any of those assertions.

For example in the TdF 2021 stage 7, Le Creusot's 250km slog was raced at a monster pace by WvA & Van der Poel in the break, i.e. which made UAE chase all day. Then Le Grand-Bornand the day later also started fast as well... & ended with Pogačar putting minutes into the GC field. So I don't believe hard racing & fatigue inherently causes Pog problems, in fact he was always lauded as having great recovery. I do think he has normal limitations like any other rider though, namely when he cooks himself chasing too much & spending too much energy on fruitless attacks (as happened last year).

I just don't see how this will be relevant in the situation he finds himself in at the moment, which is to basically cover Vingegaard & no one else. The only negative factor (& scenario) I could see occurring in the last week is a crack through lack of proper race fitness going into the Tour. But we might have already had that on Marie Blanque & he could quite plausibly be getting better & better as the race goes on.

It think you are correct about the doubts over the assertions, but there is some wishful thinking involved on Jumbos side. If Jonas isnt better in really hard races than Pog, then he cant win, since Pog will be better in every other aspect. So riding hard is the most plausible way to gain an advantage and therefore its a sensible tactic.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

This stage design is ASOs wet dream, reducing the the typical _/\/ design to a Unipuerto with a meager hill sprint beforehand (jokes aside, the stage design this Tour has been fantastic so I'm fine with this transition stage).

Perfect stage for UAE to actually flock their team and keep the break in check. Get the stage win for Pog and the bonus seconds. Additionally they could try to attack with Adam "Jebel Hafeet" Yates and see if Vingegaard is actually serious about marking him like he has occasionally these past few days.
Jumbo will get WVA in the break because that seems to be their default strat no matter what, get him ahead of the field in case anything happens. Otherwise I think they'll be passive with Vingegaard as they don't want to get countered and lose more than the bonus seconds. So potential repeat of 2020 train with Kuss.

Outside the top 2 this is the typical stage where I wouldn't be surprised about some guys not looking great today but being very good on Saturday/Sunday and vice verse. E.g. Hindley might loose a bit of time here as I don't think this suits him and someone like Simon Yates might look great but then collapse tomorrow for whatever reason.

 

[MrTea1976]

Simon Yates is going to attack today. Ineos will respond by hitting the front. Hindley will follow him.

 

[KZD]

On paper I believe Pogačar is the strongest in the kind of stage and climb but I think Vingegård will be difficult to drop so it might end up being decided on the line like in 2020 with Pogačar winning. Thus, UAE should control the stage to guarantee that he can get at least 4 bonus seconds but they won't have an easy work as today is Bastille day so the French teams and riders will be extra motivated to make the breakaway stick until the finish.

 

[theyoungest]

lol @ this comment.

It's only cycling, i.e. we could all be totally wrong here (obviously including the DS's). I have been ultra wrong in the past on countless occasions. If I was never wrong about cycling I'd have become a millionaire via online gambling sites.

But there's a degree of plausible scenarios to consider, i.e. scenarios which can be viewed through either the prism of bias or neutrality. It means when people say Vingegaard will finish the Tour strongly, or copes better in the heat, or is better at high altitude, or likes harder stages before major difficulties, from my chair here there's enough counter-evidence to raise questions & doubts over any of those assertions.

For example in the TdF 2021 stage 7, Le Creusot's 250km slog was raced at a monster pace by WvA & Van der Poel in the break, i.e. which made UAE chase all day. Then Le Grand-Bornand the day later also started fast as well... & ended with Pogačar putting minutes into the GC field. So I don't believe hard racing & fatigue inherently causes Pog problems, in fact he was always lauded as having great recovery. I do think he has normal limitations like any other rider though, namely when he cooks himself chasing too much & spending too much energy on fruitless attacks (as happened last year).

I just don't see how this will be relevant in the situation he finds himself in at the moment, which is to basically cover Vingegaard & no one else. The only negative factor (& scenario) I could see occurring in the last week is a crack through lack of proper race fitness going into the Tour. But we might have already had that on Marie Blanque & he could quite plausibly be getting better & better as the race goes on.

But what do you suggest? Instead of commenting from your comfortable position as "neutral observer", what do you suggest Jumbo do otherwise to crack what is (in their view) the best rider in the world? You say they act out of a kind of insecurity, but there is a very clear idea behind what they're doing. And this idea wasn't born last year, but rather on Mont Ventoux, where you can't argue that Pogi had already done too many fruitless attacks. Whether it works out, you never know of course, but it won't be for lack of trying. If Pogi wins it will be because he was simply the strongest rider in the race and there's nothing that could be done about it.

You're forgetting that the last couple of times Jumbo set a hard pace on climbs it was Vinge that couldn't handle it and lost time.

Please explain.

If you look at these stages closely, or even not that closely, you can see that the pace actually wasn't that high on the moment Pogacar attacked. That's what they're trying to avoid. If he's already in the red he can't ride Vingegaard off his wheel. If he's not he has the better acceleration and Vingegaard just has to let him go.

UAE is clearly aware of this, if you won't take my word for it. The moment they took the lead on Puy de Dome, immediately the pace dropped and Kelderman had to return to the front to increase the pressure again. Because UAE knows that the lower the pace is, the better it is for Pogi.

 

[Andy schleck]

But what do you suggest? Instead of commenting from your comfortable position as "neutral observer", what do you suggest Jumbo do otherwise to crack what is (in their view) the best rider in the world? You say they act out of a kind of insecurity, but there is a very clear idea behind what they're doing. And this idea wasn't born last year, but rather on Mont Ventoux, where you can't argue that Pogi had already done too many fruitless attacks. Whether it works out, you never know of course, but it won't be for lack of trying. If Pogi wins it will be because he was simply the strongest rider in the race and there's nothing that could be done about it.

If you look at these stages closely, or even not that closely, you can see that the pace actually wasn't that high on the moment Pogacar attacked. That's what they're trying to avoid. If he's already in the red he can't ride Vingegaard off his wheel. If he's not he has the better acceleration and Vingegaard just has to let him go.

UAE is clearly aware of this, if you won't take my word for it. The moment they took the lead on Puy de Dome, immediately the pace dropped and Kelderman had to return to the front to increase the pressure again. Because UAE knows that the lower the pace is, the better it is for Pogi.

I also believe that if the pace is hard and constant, the better for vingegaard to push more watts. When the pace is irregular, he suffers a bit. He also talked that he don't like a irregular pace.

The stage 5 was the better stage for him, because it was a fast stage and the pace was regular and hard.

 

[frisenfruitig]

I also believe that if the pace is hard and constant, the better for vingegaard to push more watts. When the pace is irregular, he suffers a bit. He also talked that he don't like a irregular pace.

The stage 5 was the better stage for him, because it was a fast stage and the pace was regular and hard.

But the day after the pace was also hard and it was Vingegaard who was dropped (kind of). It may be the best shot they have at dropping Pogacar but I'm not really convinced that a high steady pace is necessarily bad for him.

Its not like Pogacar has been dropped so many times that we can make confident predictions on it imo.

It's just going to come down to who is the strongest/freshest in the end. Whether or not the pace is steady or irregular is less important.

 

[Rackham]

But what do you suggest? Instead of commenting from your comfortable position as "neutral observer", what do you suggest Jumbo do otherwise to crack what is (in their view) the best rider in the world? You say they act out of a kind of insecurity, but there is a very clear idea behind what they're doing. And this idea wasn't born last year, but rather on Mont Ventoux, where you can't argue that Pogi had already done too many fruitless attacks. Whether it works out, you never know of course, but it won't be for lack of trying. If Pogi wins it will be because he was simply the strongest rider in the race and there's nothing that could be done about it.

I think Jumbo's tactics on the Tourmalet were foolhardy & I think their "win together" mantra cost Vingegaard half a minute last Thursday when they launched an ill-advised attempt to repeat Granon & Pog won on Cauterets. And yesterday was more of the same, i.e. strength in numbers & go attack, attack, attack with no concern for their own energy levels (or Vingegaard's, for that matter), without any scientific proof this tactic even hurts Pog (especially when he's just chilling, surfing wheels & following Vinge).

We know how Jumbo races, i.e. Grischa Niermann is on the radio screaming "Pogi is suffering, come on Jonas!". My opinion is Jumbo should race the Tour the way they raced the Giro with Rog: strike when the iron is hot & ride defensive the rest of the time. Just focus on themselves, not Pog, and leave the race initiative to UAE. Even on Puy-de-Dôme, Jumbo got on the front & paced the bunch before getting countered at the top.

So I say they should just sit back & Vingegaard should follow Pog. It's what he did so effectively last year after Granon & it's when he's most comfortable. But the time gap is so small now so it's probably too late for that because he's now within firing range of Pog's MTF sprint & ITT. Aka the damage is already done & IMO Pog is in a sort of quasi driving seat going into this weekend.

And no, I don't buy the theory whereby Jumbo expected Vinge to be behind at this point of the race. Not when Pog had uncertain form coming into the Tour & Vingegaard was red, red hot after the Dauphiné. The only path to victory for Vingegaard was to be better in the mountains. And when the levels are so similar, his team's foolhardiness can be counter-productive because they end up cooking themselves and not Pog.

I believe that's what we're seeing play out in real time here.

 

[Pantani_lives]

And yes, it is indeed quite funny how we talk about Pogacar as being not so great in hard ridden stages, when he's the winner of Tour of Flanders and again and again have shown he has a monster recovery. Vuelta 19, Tour 20, Tour 21, Tour 22 he looked great. Dont sleep on that day in the Vuelta he crawled onto the podium, then La Planche, two relatively easy mountain stages victories in 2021, and Tour 22 attacking each day on the second last climb, winning a stage as well.

The only place where Pogacar sometimes looks vulnerable are long, high climbs like Ventoux, Granon and Hautacam. He can perfectly handle hard racing on any other terrain. I'm still surprised that he lost time on the Marie-Blanque, but maybe that was because of his lack of competitive racing before the Tour.

The Colombier should suit him. The Joux-Plane is trickier. The Col de la Loze will be the biggest challenge, and probably decisive. Whoever has yellow on Wednesday evening is likely to take it to Paris.

 

[Salvarani]

On paper I believe Pogačar is the strongest in the kind of stage and climb but I think Vingegård will be difficult to drop so it might end up being decided on the line like in 2020 with Pogačar winning. Thus, UAE should control the stage to guarantee that he can get at least 4 bonus seconds but they won't have an easy work as today is Bastille day so the French teams and riders will be extra motivated to make the breakaway stick until the finish.

Working all day for the potential of 4 bonus seconds? Seems like a bad idea to me. Especially, with the weekend coming up where you would want to put one rider up the road minimum. Most likely Soler and Grosschartner will be used this way in the upcoming stages.

I would let JV keep riding on the front, if I were Pog. Sit on their wheel and just have them second-guess themselves. Then attack at the end like on stage 6 and leave them in the dust. Maybe tomorrow or Sunday. Then go all in on the ITT.

If they manage to crack him, then fair play.

Today I think a sprint at the end, unless one of them are on a bad day and the other can tell.

 

[pelotonIQ]

If you look at these stages closely, or even not that closely, you can see that the pace actually wasn't that high on the moment Pogacar attacked. That's what they're trying to avoid. If he's already in the red he can't ride Vingegaard off his wheel. If he's not he has the better acceleration and Vingegaard just has to let him go.

UAE is clearly aware of this, if you won't take my word for it. The moment they took the lead on Puy de Dome, immediately the pace dropped and Kelderman had to return to the front to increase the pressure again. Because UAE knows that the lower the pace is, the better it is for Pogi.

In the earlier post you said that Jumbo is trying to make the race difficult by setting a hard pace in hopes of tiring Poga in the latter stages completely ignoring the fact that Vinge is the one that has suffered the most from his teams constant high tempo tactic.

 

[Andy schleck]

But the day after the pace was also hard and it was Vingegaard who was dropped (kind of). It may be the best shot they have at dropping Pogacar but I'm not really convinced that a high steady pace is necessarily bad for him.

Its not like Pogacar has been dropped so many times that we can make confident predictions on it imo.

It's just going to come down to who is the strongest/freshest in the end. Whether or not the pace is steady or irregular is less important.

Pogacar was also great on that day, but i continue to believe that jumbo and vingegaard with better tatics on that day, wouldn't at least lose time to pogacar.

 

[Boehmand]

The only place where Pogacar sometimes looks vulnerable are long, high climbs like Ventoux, Granon and Hautacam. He can perfectly handle hard racing on any other terrain. I'm still surprised that he lost time on the Marie-Blanque, but maybe that was because of his lack of competitive racing before the Tour.

The Colombier should suit him. The Joux-Plane is trickier. The Col de la Loze will be the biggest challenge, and probably decisive. Whoever has yellow on Wednesday evening is likely to take it to Paris.

Completely agree.

If Vingegaard can stick with Pogacar to the line today (but lose), I will consider it a great success, and even a loss of 15-20 seconds will be acceptable (despite everyone and his dog saying the Tour is over, if Pogacar drops Vingegaard and takes yellow by a few seconds today).

Tomorrow the situation is reverse, but again I think the difference between the two will be limited to 10-20 seconds.
Sunday the pendulum swings back to Pogacar, but again I expect the gap to be fairly small.

Wednesday we hit 2300 metres altitude, on a very tough stage, that even ends in a descent, and that stage is where I expect JV to be able to crack Pogacar and open up an unsurmountable gap.

Fun times ahead

 

[Andy schleck]

Completely agree.

If Vingegaard can stick with Pogacar to the line today (but lose), I will consider it a great success, and even a loss of 15-20 seconds will be acceptable (despite everyone and his dog saying the Tour is over, if Pogacar drops Vingegaard and takes yellow by a few seconds today).

Tomorrow the situation is reverse, but again I think the difference between the two will be limited to 10-20 seconds.
Sunday the pendulum swings back to Pogacar, but again I expect the gap to be fairly small.

Wednesday we hit 2300 metres altitude, on a very tough stage, that even ends in a descent, and that is where I expect JV to be able to crack Pogacar and open up an unsurmountable gap.

Fun times ahead

I think everything will be decided on col de la loze.

 

[Boehmand]

Barguil saying pre-stage that he would need 5 minutes at the bottom of the climb, to stay ahead to the top.

 

[KZD]

Working all day for the potential of 4 bonus seconds? Seems like a bad idea to me. Especially, with the weekend coming up where you would want to put one rider up the road minimum. Most likely Soler and Grosschartner will be used this way in the upcoming stages.

I would let JV keep riding on the front, if I were Pog. Sit on their wheel and just have them second-guess themselves. Then attack at the end like on stage 6 and leave them in the dust. Maybe tomorrow or Sunday. Then go all in on the ITT.

If they manage to crack him, then fair play.

Today I think a sprint at the end, unless one of them are on a bad day and the other can tell.

No, I think they should work to set up a Pogačar attack earlier on the climb as I think this is good climb for him. If they don't drop Vingegård, which I think its quite possible then they can also get a 4 bonus at the end, perhaps a bit more if someone else beats Vingegård or if Pogačar's sprint is strong enough to drop him by a few seconds.

Curious to see Pidcock today. This is a longer climb so it will be a big test for him (he struggled on Tourmalet but came back in the descent).

 

[Salvarani]

No, I think they should work to set up a Pogačar attack earlier on the climb as I think this is good climb for him. If they don't drop Vingegård, which I think its quite possible then they can also get a 4 bonus at the end, perhaps a bit more if someone else beats Vingegård or if Pogačar's sprint is strong enough to drop him by a few seconds.

Curious to see Pidcock today. This is a longer climb so it will be a big test for him (he struggled on Tourmalet but came back in the descent).

I think it will cost more, than what he has to gain today.

UAE should at least not have their team work before the climb or try control the break. I think that is a mistake, but what do I know.

 

[stekelegel]

Do not forget the ITT that might come into play when the time differences stay this small.
I also feel that JV got it wrong on the tourmalet but you cant blame them given what hapenned the day before. If Pogačar has another day off they win the tour in the first week. Yesterday is another story and shows me that JV are low on confidence.
Vingegaard plan should be to follow, save energy and strike when Pog has a weak moment. Like they won in 2022 and started the tour with, denying WVA stage victory.

 

[Berniece]

Vingegaard plan should be to follow, save energy and strike when Pog has a weak moment. Like they won in 2022 and started the tour with, denying WVA stage victory.

Pogacar only has a weak moment if the race is as hard as possible. That's why JV keeps on going hard on every possible moment they can make it hard. All with the idea that eventually Pogacar will crack. Might not be today, might not be tomorrow, they just hope he eventually will crack because the amount of effort put on him was too much.

 

[Aimar16]

Free money if you bet on Pog and Vingegaard to finish in first or second place

 

[RobertCrawley]

L'Equipe says Neilson is really nice.

Difficile d'imaginer que Neilson Powless s'arrête parfois d'être heureux, car son rictus d'effort ressemble aussi à un sourire qui ne cesse d'éclairer son visage. Le Californien (26 ans) paraît tout droit sorti d'une publicité pour dentifrice et il affiche une bonne humeur permanente, imperméable à la fatigue, mais ses jambes peuvent lui rappeler la dure réalité d'un Tour de France : elles étaient douloureuses lundi, après une folle première semaine passée à l'avant, et la journée de repos était une bénédiction.

It's hard to imagine that Neilson Powless sometimes stops being happy, because his grin of effort also looks like a smile that keeps lighting up his face. The Californian (26) looks straight out of a toothpaste advertisement and he displays a permanent good mood, impervious to fatigue, but his legs can remind him of the harsh reality of a Tour de France: they were sore on Monday, after a crazy first week up front, and the rest day was a blessing.

Neilson Powless, un grimpeur pas comme les autres sur le Tour de France

Neilson Powless (EF Education Easy-Post), le polyvalent Californien, a fait du maillot de meilleur grimpeur son objectif majeur, tout en cultivant une approche joyeuse et légère de son sport. Portrait.

www.lequipe.fr

 

[RobertCrawley]

No, I think they should work to set up a Pogačar attack earlier on the climb as I think this is good climb for him. If they don't drop Vingegård, which I think its quite possible then they can also get a 4 bonus at the end, perhaps a bit more if someone else beats Vingegård or if Pogačar's sprint is strong enough to drop him by a few seconds.

Curious to see Pidcock today. This is a longer climb so it will be a big test for him (he struggled on Tourmalet but came back in the descent).

I'd love to see Pidders have a good day.