ManicJack
BANNED
- Apr 4, 2023
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TJV=stupidest people on earth. New logic proven by couch DS forum members.Your points seems reliable, but as this edition has turned out so far, I'll be surprised if TJV sticks to plans of logics here
- Aug 13, 2011
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As they say, you can take Rabo out of the name but you can’t remove the Rabofail.
- Jul 18, 2020
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The grand colombier would be a great climb, if the first 8 km were the last 8 km.
- Aug 5, 2009
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Don't expect this to be decisive for the top two riders but it could be destructive for some of the riders eyeing off the third spot on the podium.
Cookster15
Moderator
- May 14, 2011
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Is this the same side of the grand colombier raced in 2020? On that occasion Wout was leading the GC group when Bernal was dropped.
- May 29, 2011
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- Jul 16, 2015
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I went from thinking Vingegeaard had this Tour in the bag 9 days ago to now pretty much the opposite conclusion.
If only because of Jumbo's tactics & mindset. Their Pog obsession denotes concern, not confidence. Firing from the hip yesterday on stage 12 (basically riders shooting off in every direction in order to destabilize UAE) was all about playing some sort of long game in which Pogačar drops in the Alps because of hard stages raced hard previously. For example here's Vingegaard's post-race interview yesterday: https://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/j...lgen-van-deze-zware-tour-in-de-slotweek-zien/
He says it's a tough Tour & the consequences of this will be felt in the third week. This belief will also be shared by the people in charge of the team (in fact it likely comes from them). So 2+2=4, i.e. Jumbo race hard & blow matches because they believe Granon represented some sort of 'proof' that tough, fast racing hurts Pog more & they want to replicate those conditions via attrition before Joux Plane & Loze.
It's the only conclusion which explains their energy expenditure yesterday. And I think they're very much mistaken.
Could be a mistake but maybe they thought it is a better option to make every stage hard, then just pace/control in every stage... only to get dropped by Pog in the end. While letting UAE sit behind throughout each day.
Maybe they even hoped UAE would bite yesterday and put their team to work. Burning their team. They didnt and it all came together in the end, as expected.
JV will hope it dont backfire on them and that Vinge comes out on top, if he cracks and Pog is just stronger he would have probably lost anyway.
- Feb 16, 2010
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Big Doopie
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- Oct 6, 2009
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Kelly thinks momentum could swing back to Vingo in final week.
Hard to see that now, but his reasoning is based on personal experience.
We will see.
- Jul 16, 2015
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Sean Kelly said Geraint Thomas was going to win the Monte Lussari Giro ITT. He had his 'reasons' to believe that as well.
I mean I get the certain amount of logic behind the Vingegaard prediction, i.e. certainly based on the 2022 Tour when Vingegaard (on Hautacam & in the ITT) & all of Jumbo finished the Tour very strongly. But Pog has raced much more conservatively in this 2023 TdF & he only has to follow Vingegaard's wheel & not launch huge attacks with the aim of taking minutes (which was the case after Granon).
I also have a little doubt regarding Vinge's peak level & when he attained it (or more precisely how long he's been peaking). He might have peaked too early, basically. They got it right last year & in 2021 but considering how strong he was in the Dauphiné I raise this question because it is something which has afflicted Jumbo's star riders in the past, including both WvA (in monuments & the Worlds) & Roglič in GT's.
It's just something I have at the back of my mind whilst watching this Tour. We'll find out more today (& definitely tomorrow).
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- Jan 11, 2010
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You keep on saying this, and of course if they use a tactic it might also be the wrong one. The problem with this tactic is, it's a long game so it isn't immediately evident if it works or not. And then if it doesn't you can say: see, I was right all this time. If it does however, I doubt we'll hear much from you
And it is the only tactic they can use, if they just ride defensively and wait for Pogi's sprint they're screwed. What Jumbo are trying to do all the time is keep the pace so high that Pogacar's explosivity is topped off a little. And build up fatigue, because they believe Vingegaard handles that better than Pogacar. And let me explain to you how today will go, so you won't accuse them of utter stupidity or arrogance or whatever: UAE will control the stage until Colombier, and then Jumbo will take over and try to make it as hard as possible. But Pogacar will still win, because a stage and a climb like this suits him very well. Which of course will be cause for you to celebrate, but it is a calculated loss. The point is to make the loss as small as possible.
- Apr 7, 2018
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I too think they believe it and thats why they do what they do. But if they really believe both the team and Vingegaard have an advantage in a hard race, isn't exactly the way to do it?
As I have read Vingegaards interviews his form is going up and will top in the 3 week and the longer and harder the race is, the bigger advantage he will have. On the other hand Pogacar is more explosive and have a clear advantage in the shorter mountains/stages. All that said then we should remember, that Vingegaard expected to be behind Pogacar at this time in the race.
I know it's not the way we are used to see the big teams do it in the Tour. But maybe JV/Vingegaard are pretty aware, that they have to do it differently if they should have the oppertunity to break Pogacar.
They could have done it traditionally, but in that case they would just have delivered Pogacar at the foot of the mountains as he wanted. Do you belive that would be better for them?
Everything is open and I can see both of them win - it's excellent as a spectator and I hope they will continue to give us a show.
- May 3, 2023
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You're forgetting that the last couple of times Jumbo set a hard pace on climbs it was Vinge that couldn't handle it and lost time.You keep on saying this, and of course if they use a tactic it might also be the wrong one. The problem with this tactic is, it's a long game so it isn't immediately evident if it works or not. And then if it doesn't you can say: see, I was right all this time. If it does however, I doubt we'll hear much from you
What Jumbo are trying to do all the time is keep the pace so high that Pogacar's explosivity is topped off a little. And build up fatigue, because they believe Vingegaard handles that better than Pogacar. And let me explain to you how today will go, so you won't accuse them of utter stupidity or arrogance or whatever: UAE will control the stage until Colombier, and then Jumbo will take over and try to make it as hard as possible. But Pogacar will still win, because a stage and a climb like this suits him very well. Which of course will be cause for you to celebrate, but it is a calculated loss. The point is to make the loss as small as possible.
Please explain.
- Jul 28, 2010
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It's nearly impossible to predict which of the two is going to crack in the third week. Maybe neither of them are going to and it will always be a fight for a couple of seconds at the end of the stage, which would favor Pogacar. It's also possible Pogacar has another weak moment like in the first mountain stage and loses another minute but to me it doesn't look like that's where we are headed.
I still suspect/fear that Pogacar is going to crack another time at some point. Vingegaard on the other hand doesn't ever really break, In the TDF at least. I remember in PN he got demolished pretty badly by Pogacar. TDF Vingegaard is a different beast apparently though. We've seen him struggling against Pogacar a couple of times but he always manages to keep a high pace and limit the losses.
I still suspect/fear that Pogacar is going to crack another time at some point. Vingegaard on the other hand doesn't ever really break, In the TDF at least. I remember in PN he got demolished pretty badly by Pogacar. TDF Vingegaard is a different beast apparently though. We've seen him struggling against Pogacar a couple of times but he always manages to keep a high pace and limit the losses.
- Apr 7, 2018
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They expected Vingegaard to be behind Pogacar in this time of the race, so they should be pretty happy about the standings at the moment. They tried to take advantage of the moment in the race and I think everybody would have shouted ridiculous JV tactics if they had not made an effort to see if they could ride Pogacar completely out of the race at that point. I know I would
And thats what makes it fun to watch - is either the one or the other going to crack at some point and then how much.
If we rewind the time to last year, i presume pretty much nobody expected Pogacar to crack so much on the Granon stage. 2 years age i think nobody expected Vingegaard to do some of the same on Ventoux. Of course JV will have to chase some of the same moments, they have seen Pogacar hurting on the long hard stages and will focus on doing it at least one more time.
Edit: The Granon stage and Mount Ventoux. It worked before, so JV has to chase the same moment again.
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- May 3, 2023
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You're missing it.They expected Vingegaard to be behind Pogacar in this time of the race, so they should be pretty happy about the standings at the moment. They tried to take advantage of the moment in the race and I think everybody would have shouted ridiculous JV tactics if they had not made an effort to see if they could ride Pogacar completely out of the race at that point. I know I would
It seems like you didn't read the original post I replied to
- Mar 29, 2012
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I find it very hard to predict anything in this Tour, like the dynamics of the stage, the chances for the breakaway and the final winner.
I applaud all of the insights I read on here, even though 90% of those prove to be wrong afterwards.
But there is a saying: A stopped clock is right twice a day.
Keep the speculations coming
I applaud all of the insights I read on here, even though 90% of those prove to be wrong afterwards.
But there is a saying: A stopped clock is right twice a day.
Keep the speculations coming
- Jul 16, 2015
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You keep on saying this, and of course if they use a tactic it might also be the wrong one. The problem with this tactic is, it's a long game so it isn't immediately evident if it works or not. And then if it doesn't you can say: see, I was right all this time. If it does however, I doubt we'll hear much from you
What Jumbo are trying to do all the time is keep the pace so high that Pogacar's explosivity is topped off a little. And build up fatigue, because they believe Vingegaard handles that better than Pogacar. And let me explain to you how today will go, so you won't accuse them of utter stupidity or arrogance or whatever: UAE will control the stage until Colombier, and then Jumbo will take over and try to make it as hard as possible. But Pogacar will still win, because a stage and a climb like this suits him very well. Which of course will be cause for you to celebrate, but it is a calculated loss. The point is to make the loss as small as possible.
lol @ this comment.
It's only cycling, i.e. we could all be totally wrong here (obviously including the DS's). I have been ultra wrong in the past on countless occasions. If I was never wrong about cycling I'd have become a millionaire via online gambling sites.
But there's a degree of plausible scenarios to consider, i.e. scenarios which can be viewed through either the prism of bias or neutrality. It means when people say Vingegaard will finish the Tour strongly, or copes better in the heat, or is better at high altitude, or likes harder stages before major difficulties, from my chair here there's enough counter-evidence to raise questions & doubts over any of those assertions.
For example in the TdF 2021 stage 7, Le Creusot's 250km slog was raced at a monster pace by WvA & Van der Poel in the break, i.e. which made UAE chase all day. Then Le Grand-Bornand the day later also started fast as well... & ended with Pogačar putting minutes into the GC field. So I don't believe hard racing & fatigue inherently causes Pog problems, in fact he was always lauded as having great recovery. I do think he has normal limitations like any other rider though, namely when he cooks himself chasing too much & spending too much energy on fruitless attacks (as happened last year).
I just don't see how this will be relevant in the situation he finds himself in at the moment, which is to basically cover Vingegaard & no one else. The only negative factor (& scenario) I could see occurring in the last week is a crack through lack of proper race fitness going into the Tour. But we might have already had that on Marie Blanque & he could quite plausibly be getting better & better as the race goes on.
Elos Anjos
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- May 23, 2022
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There is a difference between cracking and being dropped. Cracking may start as a regular being dropped but then evolves to an overall performance failure. In Granon ,Pogacar cracked but not because of Vingo exclusively, but due to his approaches to Jumbo's plan. So there is no base to believe that Pogacar will crack again, but he might be dropped. Like Vingo has been.
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