Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 15: Les Gets - Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc, 179.0k

[Boehmand]

I expect Jumbo to make it hard again on this stage and attack. It will be a test of who has better powers of recovery. I'm sure Jumbo is betting it's Jonas.

You may very well be right, I was wrong today so could be wrong again tomorrow

 

[RobertCrawley]

I don’t know. It was great Vinge didn’t let the elastic break and even gained time for them but UAE blew them up and kicked them off their train plan while making Kuss work for longer. Majka and Adam completely derailed them and it didn’t look like they expected that.

Here's the quote I was vaguely remembering. This is why I think Jumbo hits it again.

"In the overall standings, Pogačar is now just 17 seconds off Vingegaard’s lead and seemingly building momentum as the race approaches the second week. In the transcript of the interview released on Monday evening, however, Vingegaard suggested that the terrain ahead – most notably in the Alps at the weekend – is better tailored to his qualities.

'Yeah, I definitely think so. Or so it has been usually at least. And that is what we believe that I can make the difference on the longer and harder days. And the farther we get in the Tour and more fatigued everyone gets, the better we think it will be for me,' Vingegaard said."

Vingegaard: Jumbo-Visma ‘have made a plan’ to break Pogacar at Tour de France

Yellow jersey leans on powers of endurance as race enters second week

www.cyclingnews.com

 

[D. Pecher]

Didn't Vingegaard say after one of the early stages where Pogacar selected some bonus seconds that the Tour isn't won on bonus seconds? I wonder how that humble pie tastes.

 

[Big Doopie]

Will be interesting to know that they believe at this point. The second of consecutive hard days (stage 6) was the only time Pogacar managed to gain significant time on Vingegaard, with Jumbo and Vingegaard "going for it".

agreed.

i wonder if they are now second-guessing their off-season declaration that they did not need Rog because they knew how to bet Pog with just Vingo.

 

[Boehmand]

Didn't Vingegaard say after one of the early stages where Pogacar selected some bonus seconds that the Tour isn't won on bonus seconds? I wonder how that humble pie tastes.

We'll know when he is in Courchevel, until then it's premature to speculate on it.

 

[Rob5091]

I wrote back before the Tour started that the "climb heavy" Tour could be decided by the TT and looks like it might well happen.

 

[Big Doopie]

Remco is nowhere near the level of Pogi and Vingo.

i think it is unnecessary to exaggerate for you to express an absolutely valid opinion.

peak remco, I agree, may not be able to climb the way Vingo and Pog are doing right now. But to say peak remco is nowhere near weakens your argument with hyperbole. peak remco was never challenged by Rodriguez last year at the Vuelta (even before either of them crashed). Rodriguez is presently sitting third here. so maybe a more reasonable extrapolation would be that peak remco would sit somewhere between. and if the TDF had any sensible amount of ITT kms, peak remco might even be close (that is why a more traditional amount of ITT would make things even more exciting).

however, i also agree with the doubters that remco is still unproven over successive high mountains, so we will just have to wait and see.

 

[hayneplane]

I think break takes it as Jumbo and UAE rest and reset. Adam and Kuss will kill the final climb and Pog will gain a couple seconds on Vinge.

The counter argument to that is that with the rest day and the ITT upcoming tomorrow is the last day the domestiques need to empty the tank until Wednesday so they should get sufficient recovery even if both teams try to smash each other to pieces.

 

[Netserk]

Rodriguez has stepped up, no doubt. Which is to be expected.

 

[D. Pecher]

The counter argument to that is that with the rest day and the ITT upcoming tomorrow is the last day the domestiques need to empty the tank until Wednesday so they should get sufficient recovery even if both teams try to smash each other to pieces.

Following the same logic, a break will also fight back a lot harder as they know they can dig deep with the upcoming rest day and the ITT as a write-off, i.e. takle it easy, just stay within time limit. And it remains to be seen if UAE and TJV are prepared to burn their doms to chase down a breakaway and end up going poof at the last climb where they're needed the most.

 

[hayneplane]

Just listening to a Jens Voigt comment in Danish newspaper B.T.

He is saying it's not entirely unrealistic, that we will see them both in a break on the Champs-Elysees for the bonus seconds on the line

It's of course far fetched, because he (and we all) know very well, that Alpecin, Trek, Jayco, Soudal, Cofidis, etc., will completely deny them the possibility of staying away, but imagine if it is that close in the end, that we actually get to see a stage 21 ridden like that

Would never happen in reality because the sprinter teams want the glory of winning in Paris but if it really was bonus seconds +/- a handful of extra seconds time gap it would be fantastic if the sprinters stepped back and didn’t help bring back any attacks from the GC guys.

 

[D. Pecher]

Would never happen in reality because the sprinter teams want the glory of winning in Paris but if it really was bonus seconds +/- a handful of extra seconds time gap it would be fantastic if the sprinters stepped back and didn’t help bring back any attacks from the GC guys.

I seem to remember that Vinokourov once overtook someone for third in GC on the last day by taking out the only bonus sprint on the way to Paris.

 

[hayneplane]

i think it is unnecessary to exaggerate for you to express an absolutely valid opinion.

peak remco, I agree, may not be able to climb the way Vingo and Pog are doing right now. But to say peak remco is nowhere near weakens your argument with hyperbole. peak remco was never challenged by Rodriguez last year at the Vuelta (even before either of them crashed). Rodriguez is presently sitting third here. so maybe a more reasonable extrapolation would be that peak remco would sit somewhere between. and if the TDF had any sensible amount of ITT kms, peak remco might even be close (that is why a more traditional amount of ITT would make things even more exciting).

however, i also agree with the doubters that remco is still unproven over successive high mountains, so we will just have to wait and see.

Yes Rodriguez is in 3rd but he is miles back and would have lost over a minute today instead of gaining time if the big two were in any way concerned about him being a factor to win the race in Paris.

 

[Vudy]

i think it is unnecessary to exaggerate for you to express an absolutely valid opinion.

peak remco, I agree, may not be able to climb the way Vingo and Pog are doing right now. But to say peak remco is nowhere near weakens your argument with hyperbole. peak remco was never challenged by Rodriguez last year at the Vuelta (even before either of them crashed). Rodriguez is presently sitting third here. so maybe a more reasonable extrapolation would be that peak remco would sit somewhere between. and if the TDF had any sensible amount of ITT kms, peak remco might even be close (that is why a more traditional amount of ITT would make things even more exciting).

however, i also agree with the doubters that remco is still unproven over successive high mountains, so we will just have to wait and see.

I never wanted to speculate, it's just my opinion. And I believe he could have fought for 3rd place. However, I accept your thoughts and find them to valid. However, if he doesn't race the TdF, we'll never know.

 

[tobydawq]

Vingegaard is now the last remaining rider in the top-5 without a stage win despite being the yellow jersey, guessing it would be unprecedented if things stay like that until Paris?

It would be cool if Bilbao gets past Kuss and Simon Yates on GC to make that stat even better.

 

[Big Doopie]

Yes Rodriguez is in 3rd but he is miles back and would have lost over a minute today instead of gaining time if the big two were in any way concerned about him being a factor to win the race in Paris.

Not sure how that in any way addresses or contradicts what I posted.

Cheers.

 

[Izzyeviel]

Just listening to a Jens Voigt comment in Danish newspaper B.T.

He is saying it's not entirely unrealistic, that we will see them both in a break on the Champs-Elysees for the bonus seconds on the line

It's of course far fetched, because he (and we all) know very well, that Alpecin, Trek, Jayco, Soudal, Cofidis, etc., will completely deny them the possibility of staying away, but imagine if it is that close in the end, that we actually get to see a stage 21 ridden like that

Well Pogacar did a put a minute into Jonas last year on the champs-elysees...

 

[Sciatic]

Oh

Would never happen in reality because the sprinter teams want the glory of winning in Paris but if it really was bonus seconds +/- a handful of extra seconds time gap it would be fantastic if the sprinters stepped back and didn’t help bring back any attacks from the GC guys.

it’s much more likely that if there’s still close going into next weekend. Stage 20 will be ridden like Spring Classic, which seemingly would favor Pogacar, although Jumbo has much better rouleurs.

 

[D. Pecher]

I think the ITT will decide it and that would put Pogacar at an advantage in my book. That was when he completely demolished Roglic for his first tour win.

 

[hayneplane]

Following the same logic, a break will also fight back a lot harder as they know they can dig deep with the upcoming rest day and the ITT as a write-off, i.e. takle it easy, just stay within time limit. And it remains to be seen if UAE and TJV are prepared to burn their doms to chase down a breakaway and end up going poof at the last climb where they're needed the most.

True and this is where ASO have stepped up and done a vastly better job of pacing in terms of having proper box office stages on the middle weekends compared to last year.

 

[hayneplane]

Not sure how that in any way addresses or contradicts what I posted.

Cheers.

It was the nowhere near point I was pushing hard.

I agree with you that a strong Remco with his Vuelta climbing legs would be 3rd right now and may well be no more than 2 minutes down on Pogacar and Vingegaard.

 

[theyoungest]

agreed.

i wonder if they are now second-guessing their off-season declaration that they did not need Rog because they knew how to bet Pog with just Vingo.

I think they aren't. Vingegaard and Pogacar are currently at a level that prime Roglic has never reached. He would have been one of the guys behind fighting for scraps. So then he doesn't really feature and he can't be used as a tactical pawn.

Also, having Roglic there requires just about the opposite tactic to having Vingegaard. Their current plan, make the race as hard as possible and wait for Pogi to break, wouldn't suit Roglic as it would probably break him first.

 

[Rollthedice]

We should be thankful for the Jumbo scouting team for searching every fish factory in Europe to find somebody who could challenge for the Tour de France. Otherwise we would have been stuck with a Slovenian winning this race by 5,7,10,15 whatever minutes for the rest of our lives.

 

[Netserk]

I hope they go back to no more bonus seconds in the Tour.

We still saw plenty of GC riders going for stage victories between 2008 and 2014, but none of this stupid play for bonuses. Just going hard to the line.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I seem to remember that Vinokourov once overtook someone for third in GC on the last day by taking out the only bonus sprint on the way to Paris.

5th and Levi’s team was very upset about it since there was confusion about the bonus seconds being rewarded or not due to the rain.