Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 16: Passy - Combloux, 22.4k (ITT)

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No shot. Bergen 2017 was 41.6kph for Dumoulin on a route with relatively less climbing and more flat (D+ is nearly identical but it's compacted into 3/4 of the distance here).

Conversely, Chorges 2013 was 37.2kph for Froome and this TT is slightly closer to Bergen than that IMO, so 40kph seems a decent shout. 40kph exactly is 33:36.
You are probably right, I didn't think through my estimation hard enough.
 
I hope it will be dry..... the last thing I'd like to see is riders taking risks and falling on a slippery surface.

Is there any word on the forecast?

Thunderstorms possible

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Pog is training a bike change, while Vinge and Wout are not. Would be funny if it was just to confuse Jumbo into their own bike changes.
I think TT bikes are still @ about 8kg, while the climbing bikes are 6.8kg the minimum they can be. Is it worth the lost seconds with the exchange?

F1PFHV5XwAAtQ05

Are the rules different here than they were at the Giro? Where the climbing bike was waiting for them on the ground and they just jumped on it...
 
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Pog is training a bike change, while Vinge and Wout are not. Would be funny if it was just to confuse Jumbo into their own bike changes.
I think TT bikes are still @ about 8kg, while the climbing bikes are 6.8kg the minimum they can be. Is it worth the lost seconds with the exchange?

F1PFHV5XwAAtQ05
Based on weight alone, definitely not worth it. Pog must not like the position for climbing.
 
Surely this must be too tough for Wout to even be close to Pog and Vingegaard.

My top 3 is:

1. Pog
2. Vinge +12s
3. A. Yates + 48s

Yates rode a good tt both in Tour of Romandie (hilly one) and Duaphine (a bit hilly).
Think the steep section on both climb 1 and 2 should suit Yates well.
 
Pog is training a bike change, while Vinge and Wout are not. Would be funny if it was just to confuse Jumbo into their own bike changes.
I think TT bikes are still @ about 8kg, while the climbing bikes are 6.8kg the minimum they can be. Is it worth the lost seconds with the exchange?

F1PFHV5XwAAtQ05
I'm surprised. It's a good climb but it's a Cat 2, not a super tough climb. I would think the aero bike might be more useful to these top riders.
 
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Just 2 minutes between gc riders? Rodriguez is completly screwed because he will be caught. These are good news to Pogacar, he will have a target.
He can do a better tt than he did in Dauphine this year. Vuelta last year he was 4th on a 31k flat tt, +1.22 behind Remco.
And now he has a podium spot to fight for.

Pog maight catch him but I think Rodriguez makes it by 17s. :)
 
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Jonas won the time trial last year, and he goes last, so he'll know how to manage his efforts to gain time on Pogi. So I think the advantage goes to Jonas, but it's going to be close. The TT is too short for any professional bike rider to pick up huge chunks of time (to borrow some phrasing from the late, great Paul Sherwen).
 
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I'm surprised. It's a good climb but it's a Cat 2, not a super tough climb. I would think the aero bike might be more useful to these top riders.
I don't remember who it was, but the aero bike is so much more aero than a road bike you need to be climbing at like 7% or more to get a benefit from being on a road bike.

I am absolutely confident changing to a road bike is a mistake.

The only comparable spot I can think of is the 2017 Itzulia ITT where everyone did it full TT bike and Contador started on the road bike, but I don't remember the T1 split.
 
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He can do a better tt than he did in Dauphine this year. Vuelta last year he was 4th on a 31k flat tt, +1.22 behind Remco.
And now he has a podium spot to fight for.

Pog maight catch him but I think Rodriguez makes it by 17s. :)
But it was a really fast TT and he still was more than 2 kph slower than Remco. And another thing very important, spanish riders seems to step up his game in Spain when they have to do a TT. If he is 2 kph slower than Pogi, he will lose 2 minutes because this is a MTT so speed will be low and gaps will be larger. Of course his TT ability is a bit of unknown to us but if he doesn't have a good day on the bike, he can definetly be surpassed.
 
1980 Sallanches WC is amongst my first cycling memories, totally mesmerized by Le Patron himself.
But what I really don't remember is how twisty this route really is.

Although Jonas can also figure out turns, this route should lean slightly in Pogi's favor, even with Jonas starting behind him. So to continue the suspense, the opening sequence couldn't have been better for yet another teeth-gritting episode.

But yet again I have to stick to work during these vital hours.
Think I'll just put the blinders on and watch it all tomorrow night instead....