Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 16: Passy - Combloux, 22.4k (ITT)

[Rackham]

You can't think much of Pogacar's capabilities if you sincerely believe that this is the absolute best he can do, and that he and UAE judge his efforts against anyone other than the best.

There's no amount of revisionism or goalpost shifting which can handwave the inexplicable.

Pog's performance was in-line with his best ever ITT performances. There's nothing more he can do when he puts over a minute into Wout van Aert on a hilly 22.4km ITT. Unless you're saying Van Aert is a bit sh*t? I mean what's the metric here? Vingegaard looked like a pro among cadets. He made the Belgian national time trial champ (& someone regularly named one of the best in the world in the discipline, especially on this type of route which favors his all-rounder abilities) look rubbish.

2:51... i.e. that's the gap back to WvA... who finished third (with an average speed of 37.913). Vingegaard did 41.227!!!

I've never seen anything like this before & unless someone was watching cycling back in the 1950's & early 60's, no one else has seen it either. So no, Pog can't do any better.

 

[Pirazziattacks]

So no, Pog can't do any better.

I don't see how you can make that judgement with any confidence at all.

 

[Kwaremonster]

There's no amount of revisionism or goalpost shifting which can handwave the inexplicable.

Pog's performance was in-line with his best ever ITT performances. There's nothing more he can do when he puts over a minute into Wout van Aert on a hilly 22.4km ITT. Unless you're saying Van Aert is a bit sh*t? I mean what's the metric here? Vingegaard looked like a pro among cadets. He made the Belgian national time trial champ (& someone regularly named one of the best in the world in the discipline, especially on this type of route which favors his all-rounder abilities) look rubbish.

2:51... i.e. that's the gap back to WvA... who finished third (with an average speed of 37.913). Vingegaard did 41.227!!!

I've never seen anything like this before & unless someone was watching cycling back in the 1950's & early 60's, no one else has seen it either. So no, Pog can't do any better.

This is not a normal time trial so bringing Van Aert into this discussion makes no sense.

And yes, Pogacar could have done better. He literally lost 2 seconds in the first corner, had a heavy bike, was forced to change his bike. According to dumoulin his cadence was lower then on LPTBF.

I'm not saying he would have won, but he could have been closer.

 

[Netserk]

Time splits of the top-10 from PCS:

 

[Rackham]

I don't see how you can make that judgement with any confidence at all.

Because there's the basic fact he destroyed the field... but got destroyed himself. He did a performance relatively alligned with LPDBF 2020 based on the seconds per km gains & the gaps versus the rest. What more do people want? Two riders putting 3 minutes into the rest of the pro-peloton over 22.4km?

This is not a normal time trial so bringing Van Aert into this discussion makes no sense.

Dumoulin doesn't know what he's talking about & he's 'coping' for his friends at Jumbo.

And I don't see how this isn't a 'normal' ITT? I mean what was so extreme or different? It wasn't Monte Lussari or Alpe d'Huez, it was hilly & short.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Time splits of the top-10 from PCS:

PCS time splits actually show a time for Vingegaard that is 10 seconds too low. It‘s probably that science-fiction last part where those are missing.

 

[Pirazziattacks]

Because there's the basic fact he destroyed the field... but got destroyed himself. He did a performance relatively alligned with LPDBF 2020 based on the seconds per km gains & the gaps versus the rest. What more do people want? Two riders putting 3 minutes into the rest of the pro-peloton over 22.4km?

Pogacar isn't really competing with the rest of the field though, he's competing with Vingegaard. Like I've said elsewhere, Pogacar has evolved as a rider since 2020 so I'm not sure how useful that is as a point of comparison.

 

[Rackham]

Pogacar isn't really competing with the rest of the field though, he's competing with Vingegaard. Like I've said elsewhere, Pogacar has evolved as a rider since 2020 so I'm not sure how useful that is as a point of comparison.

Because the rest of the field has also evolved since 2020 as well.

There's a reason we've never seen seconds per km gains like Vingegaard's yesterday since the 1960's. It's not a usual occurrence & Pog should not be held to such an impossible standard. No one should.

 

[Netserk]

PCS time splits actually show a time for Vingegaard that is 10 seconds too low. It‘s probably that science-fiction last part where those are missing.

Indeed.

From the official racecenter:

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Pogacar isn't really competing with the rest of the field though, he's competing with Vingegaard. Like I've said elsewhere, Pogacar has evolved as a rider since 2020 so I'm not sure how useful that is as a point of comparison.

Ah, Okay, well, ‚Pogačar improved’ isn‘t really a good argument when you‘re bringing up reasons why he was beaten by almost 1:40 by a rider who is older than him and was worse than him back then.

 

[Rob5091]

A man who knows a thing or two about TT-ing, I think puts the whole thing into perspective, Tom Dumoulin,
https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling...16-victory-as-the-best-time-trial-ever-ridden
"I'm simply speechless. I think this is the best time trial ever ridden in cycling. It's truly incredible, an unparalleled time trial performance. Jonas performed brilliantly both uphill and downhill. I have no words to describe it," lauds Dumoulin to Dutch broadcaster NOS following the stage. "

 

[Pirazziattacks]

Because the rest of the field has also evolved since 2020 as well.

There's a reason we've never seen seconds per km gains like Vingegaard's yesterday since the 1960's. It's not a usual occurrence & Pog should not be held to such an impossible standard. No one should.

The rest of the field has evolved how- in the sense that the gap between Pogacar and everyone other than Vingegaard (and perhaps Remco) has continued to grow?

 

[theyoungest]

Because the rest of the field has also evolved since 2020 as well.

There's a reason we've never seen seconds per km gains like Vingegaard's yesterday since the 1960's. It's not a usual occurrence & Pog should not be held to such an impossible standard. No one should.

It's difficult to admit that you were wrong and that Jumbo's tactic of making this a race of attrition would pay off somewhere, somehow. That's what happened yesterday. Pogacar wasn't bad, but clearly he wasn't on his best day ever either. You could even see it on the start ramp, he already looked spent before the TT had even started. If you compare it to La Planche, his cadence was different, his whole demeanour on the bike was different, there was way more "grinta" in there. Just like Vingegaard had yesterday. And the bike change was just disastrous, Vingegaard rode the final few kms so much faster than Pogi it's not even funny anymore. Because he was on his TT bike on a rolling section.

We haven't seen second per km gains like this, but we also haven't seen a TT like this in the final week of a Tour, so there's no point in comparing. Oldschool Tour TTs were mostly super long and rolling, you're not going to gain 4 secs a km on one of these.

 

[meat puppet]

But but but, that stupid Nierman should not try to break Pog with aggressive tactics. It's not... nice.

 

[happytramp]

It's difficult to admit that you were wrong and that Jumbo's tactic of making this a race of attrition would pay off somewhere, somehow. That's what happened yesterday. Pogacar wasn't bad, but clearly he wasn't on his best day ever either. You could even see it on the start ramp, he already looked spent before the TT had even started. If you compare it to La Planche, his cadence was different, his whole demeanour on the bike was different, there was way more "grinta" in there. Just like Vingegaard had yesterday. And the bike change was just disastrous, Vingegaard rode the final few kms so much faster than Pogi it's not even funny anymore. Because he was on his TT bike on a rolling section.

We haven't seen second per km gains like this, but we also haven't seen a TT like this in the final week of a Tour, so there's no point in comparing. Oldschool Tour TTs were mostly super long and rolling, you're not going to gain 4 secs a km on one of these.

To be honest you can't expect anyone to 'admit' anything after yesterday... The best any of us can do at the moment is hold our nose and hope for the best.

 

[GroupDK]

There's no amount of revisionism or goalpost shifting which can handwave the inexplicable.

Pog's performance was in-line with his best ever ITT performances. There's nothing more he can do when he puts over a minute into Wout van Aert on a hilly 22.4km ITT. Unless you're saying Van Aert is a bit sh*t? I mean what's the metric here? Vingegaard looked like a pro among cadets.....
...So no, Pog can't do any better.

Pogacar did not perform that stellar yesterday and was also second to teammate Yates on the climb, and Ciccone was the fastest.
And Van Aert is not really a reference on a TT with a mountain at this stage in the tour.

If you compare Pogacar and Vingegaard you can see Vingegaard is riding the corner with an attack mentality, like somebody snatched his phone-home mobile.

Very impressive mountain TT from Vingegaard, and as UAE also stated, "when we saw Jonas first times, we knew this is gonna be difficult", and likely also took some of the wind out of Pogacar.

 

[Gigs_98]

Honestly I feel like it's complete speculation to put this down to Jumbo drilling it on one day. Maybe Vingegaard profited a little bit from an overall hard race, but that doesn't explain this kind of gap, especially in a TT after a rest day.

 

[theyoungest]

Honestly I feel like it's complete speculation to put this down to Jumbo drilling it on one day. Maybe Vingegaard profited a little bit from an overall hard race, but that doesn't explain this kind of gap, especially in a TT after a rest day.

It's not just one day. They've tried to make the race hard on every possibility. If you haven't seen that, what have you been watching? Jumbo were racing to create a difference of minutes, UAE were racing for seconds. Now that one tactic seems to have been vindicated over the other, suddenly it's fishy or it can't be down to this tactic. They did the same last year, and there was this same disbelief that it could have happened without Pogi making a tactical mistake or whatever.

Maybe it's just a tactic that works to beat Pogacar.

 

[Bolder]

There's no amount of revisionism or goalpost shifting which can handwave the inexplicable.

Pog's performance was in-line with his best ever ITT performances. There's nothing more he can do when he puts over a minute into Wout van Aert on a hilly 22.4km ITT. Unless you're saying Van Aert is a bit sh*t? I mean what's the metric here? Vingegaard looked like a pro among cadets. He made the Belgian national time trial champ (& someone regularly named one of the best in the world in the discipline, especially on this type of route which favors his all-rounder abilities) look rubbish.

2:51... i.e. that's the gap back to WvA... who finished third (with an average speed of 37.913). Vingegaard did 41.227!!!

I've never seen anything like this before & unless someone was watching cycling back in the 1950's & early 60's, no one else has seen it either. So no, Pog can't do any better.

Exactly. That was a performance for the ages. Pog was just as strong as Vingegaard in EVERY other stage save Marie Blanque, and certainly so as recently as the day before. I seriously doubt Pog was feeling bad yesterday -- he spent the rest day backflipping into the pool, so clearly he wasn't worried much. Plus, he almost NEVER underperforms.

I had actually been expecting this performance from Vingegaard today on Loze, where I thought his power/weight numbers would let him take a minute or two from Pog.

 

[Gigs_98]

It's not just one day. They've tried to make the race hard on every possibility. If you haven't seen that, what have you been watching? Jumbo were racing to create a difference of minutes, UAE were racing for seconds. Now that one tactic seems to have been vindicated over the other, suddenly it's fishy or it can't be down to this tactic. They did the same last year, and there was this same disbelief that it could have happened without Pogi making a tactical mistake or whatever.

Maybe it's just a tactic that works to beat Pogacar.

On what stages did they even make the race hard? Stage 14, stage 5 and? Is that it? Truly every possibility

 

[Rackham]

It's not just one day. They've tried to make the race hard on every possibility. If you haven't seen that, what have you been watching? Jumbo were racing to create a difference of minutes, UAE were racing for seconds. Now that one tactic seems to have been vindicated over the other, suddenly it's fishy or it can't be down to this tactic. They did the same last year, and there was this same disbelief that it could have happened without Pogi making a tactical mistake or whatever.

Maybe it's just a tactic that works to beat Pogacar.

And without this miracle 'tactic' of making the race hard, we can presume two GC riders would put 3 minutes into WvA over 22.4km's?

Pog was basically as good & arguably better than he was on LPDBF 2020. No one can argue the merits of tactics when talking about a performance (Vingegaard's) which is the most powerful in 60 years.

It was delirious stuff.

 

[meat puppet]

Honestly I feel like it's complete speculation to put this down to Jumbo drilling it on one day. Maybe Vingegaard profited a little bit from an overall hard race, but that doesn't explain this kind of gap, especially in a TT after a rest day.

Oh indeed, the constituents of the gap are best discussed elsewhere.

Guess the point is this: Jumbo had a plan based on Vingo being strong and executed it rather successfully, despite endless whining about its stupidity.

Well, fear and hope are the worst possible guides to navigate this world.

 

[theyoungest]

And without this miracle 'tactic' of making the race hard, we can presume two GC riders would put 3 minutes into WvA over 22.4km's?

Pog was basically as good & arguably better than he was on LPDBF 2020. No one can argue the merits of tactics when talking about a performance (Vingegaard's) which is the most powerful in 60 years.

It was delirious stuff.

Don't take my word for it, take Tom Dumoulin's. He argued yesterday that this wasn't the Pogacar from La Planche, and I think he's right. And this is the same Dumoulin who couldn't believe that performance because "he sits on his bike like a miner". So he has studied Pogacar's style quite closely

It was a very strong performance from Vingegaard, that's for sure. But it was just a good, not great, performance from Pogi.

What I can say is that it reeks of sore loserdom when you've been arguing that this tactic won't work and then when it apparently does, you simply ignore the possible merits.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

We haven't seen second per km gains like this, but we also haven't seen a TT like this in the final week of a Tour, so there's no point in comparing. Oldschool Tour TTs were mostly super long and rolling, you're not going to gain 4 secs a km on one of these.

We've not seen a short hilly TT like this, we have something that is even more s/km friendly if we go by your Idea, which is the 2004 stage 16 Alpe d'Huez TT and not even Lance came remotely close to the difference in time gain and especially avg. speed. Vingegaard was at least 4 km/h faster than anyone outside the Top 8, and he was ca. 2 km/h faster than the second. Vingegaard gained 3 s/m on Pogacar, and 4,7 s/km.
Lance back then was like 0.6 km/h faster than Ullrich, and 2004 Ullrich was far off his best. Lance back then was 4 km/h faster starting with nr. 131 in the TT classification that day, not nr.9. His s/km gain was 4s. His s/m time gain about 1,55s.
Just for a little perspective about short and hard TTs on stage 16.

It's likely Pogacar on a good day goes faster than he did yesterday, but that does not make anything else in this TT less extraordinary. Vingegaard himself said he thought his computer was malfunctioning when he was seeing the numbers.

 

[GroupDK]

Certainly gonna be interesting to see what UAE got in the bag today, as UAE does seem to be the strongest team this tour with a margin, not least after the crashes to key players at Jumbo..
UAE will likely play on Yates as nr3, but the play is not that powerful when Vingegaard got almost 9 minutes to Yates, - will be interesting to see Pogacar having to go bold, and not just wait for the last few km to gain bonus seconds and rely on his wickedly good explosive finish.
and no doubt about that Vingegaard went deep yesterday, but over the last few years he does seem to recover the best, and the TT was only 22km.
Interesting stage to come today..