Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 17: Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc - Courchevel, 165.7k

[ManicJack]

Pog will work for Adam to secure podium

If he doesn't have the legs to try to blow the race up, I could see this being part of the day's plan.

 

[FrontHeadlock]

UAE to control for so Pog can snag the Bonus seconds. He won't make the same mistake he made last weekend.

Bonusgacar at it again!

 

[Amazinmets87]

Pogacar should do a 2011 Contador and go bananas without caring about places. He is not going to win unless we have a massive bonk from Vingegaard

I still remember Pantani and Morzine. However, knowledge of sports performance has reached a point where I doubt Jumbo would be perturbed by a kamikaze attack from Pog. They'd just shake their collective heads and chuckle.

 

[Gratemans]

The question is how much time can Vingegaard take on Pogacar.

Seriously, how opportunistic are the people here

The first one Jonas won: "Tour is over!"
The ones Pog won: "Tour is over!"

I've got no favourite, but it's still far from over. And I don't get why people have kept insisting that it is since the first mountain stage..

 

[Panda Claws]

UAE will set a crazy pace and hope for the rain. Only question is if Vinge fake drops to say he’s tired or bosses the final.

Pogacar should drop the rest of the field and then fake getting dropped hard by Vinge aiming for that retroactive victory.

 

[Martinstranger]

I get tired of him winning everything but Pog is no quitter and still the best rider in the world imo, despite what happens in this Tour.

No way that guy settles for 2nd - he'll fight til the end so it should be fun at the very least.

I sure hope he will figth to the end. Before today a lot of this forum meant that UAE had showed superior tactics and teamform - so now is the time to put them to use for a long range attack. They will have to blow everything to pieces early to see what happens. What can Pogacar loose - they can stop riding and he can hang on to the Jumbo-Visma-train if he needs to and he isn't the type to collect second places. On the other hand, there can clearly be big time losses on the last mountain, but will it be enough?

Pog will work for Adam to secure podium

That could be a concern for us who wants action on the stage. I hope that 2+3 is not enough for UAE but I often get surprised be teams who cares about their riders in position 3-15 in the Tour.

 

[Bolder]

This stage is incredibly hard, maybe too hard, actually. The problem is that Loze is so difficult that anyone who attacks before the final 5 k better be sure they have the legs of a lifetime.

I think Pogi is cooked and will have to follow Vingegaard. The sad thing is that the field is now so far behind that any attack won't draw out the top 2.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pog to attack earlier (trying to overcome the deficit) but Vinge to counter and prevail at the end.

 

[Red Rick]

I know the chances of Pogacar still winning the Tour are incredibly slim, but I'm certain he will not leave without a fight. I'm expecting him to throw absolutely everything and Vingegaard and with a gap that big that could mean an attack at literally any point in the stage. Will it work? Probably not. But there is no way he's not trying absolutely everything.

There is literally no point doing anything before the final part Col de la Loze.

Pogacars best bet is hope he miracously can take 30s here and then go nuts on Petit Ballon.

 

[Gigs_98]

There is literally no point doing anything before the final part Col de la Loze.

Pogacars best bet is hope he miracously can take 30s here and then go nuts on Petit Ballon.

I think I'd bet on Pogacar attacking at least once before Col de la Loze and Petit Ballon. If he let's it come down to those climbs he'll have to drop Vingegaard 1 v 1. I think he'll try to catch him off guard instead.

 

[Red Rick]

I think I'd bet on Pogacar attacking at least once before Col de la Loze and Petit Ballon. If he let's it come down to those climbs he'll have to drop Vingegaard 1 v 1. I think he'll try to catch him off guard instead.

Pogacar isn't gonna attack on locations where you cannot attack. You cannot attack before the final 7km of Loze. Not uphill at least. UAE is also the weaker team, and Pogacar is also the worse descender. You can thank ASO for the Loze being the final climb.

IMO his only hope is a miracle rouleur breakaway ons tage 18 or 19. And besides stage 20 is better for suicide attacks anyway.

 

[Trofonios]

Problem with the big gap is that Vingegaard doesn't need to panic if Pogacar attacks, use the doms and ride a steady high pace when they are done. Actually think that Pog might crack himself tomorrow and Vinge takes more seconds.
Think Vinge is confident that he can reel Pog in if Pog attacks far out, like he did on stage 14. The climbing difference was significant today.

But of course Pog needs to try, Vinge might not be on his best day. After his dominant win on stage 5, Vinge was more human the day after and lost time.

 

[dgodave]

...."Tour is over!"

.....And I don't get why people have kept insisting that it is since the first mountain stage..

Its not just the racers that "love suffering".

Its the fans too apparently.

 

[DenisMenchov]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRphH5SFLn8&ab_channel=DRaceZone-CyclingChannel

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Problem with the big gap is that Vingegaard doesn't need to panic if Pogacar attacks, use the doms and ride a steady high pace when they are done. Actually think that Pog might crack himself tomorrow and Vinge takes more seconds.
Think Vinge is confident that he can reel Pog in if Pog attacks far out, like he did on stage 14. The climbing difference was significant today.

But of course Pog needs to try, Vinge might not be on his best day. After his dominant win on stage 5, Vinge was more human the day after and lost time.

This. If you don't try you won't know if your rival has a weaker day. Chances are slim though.

 

[tobydawq]

Only the biggest of legends win in Courchevel. It will be interesting to see who is next in the line.

 

[Tim Cahill]

I almost expect to see Soler then Majka on the front on Roselend, getting a Mcnulty/Bjerg vibe and just think they're going to throw the cards at the wall and see what happens.

 

[SafeBet]

Only the biggest of legends win in Courchevel. It will be interesting to see who is next in the line.

You're telling me this is the stage Laporte will not gift?

 

[Poursuivant]

Vingegaard was right all along, it won’t be seconds that decide the race. He will add to his buffer tomorrow after Pogacar tries several attacks and blows himself up.

 

[Trofonios]

I almost expect to see Soler then Majka on the front on Roselend, getting a Mcnulty/Bjerg vibe and just think they're going to throw the cards at the wall and see what happens.

Soler Maybe but not Majka, climb not steep enough. Pretty steady at 6 %, draft will matter. Think Soler will have a diffcult time to even drop Laporte and Hooydonck.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Soler Maybe but not Majka, climb not steep enough. Pretty steady at 6 %, draft will matter. Think Soler will have a diffcult time to even drop Laporte and Hooydonck.

I believe the mid section is around 6k at 8 average, but yeah perhaps, WVA will be hard to drop at the very least, mabye Bjerg can pull one out of the hat again

 

[jaylew]

Vingegaard was right all along, it won’t be seconds that decide the race. He will add to his buffer tomorrow after Pogacar tries several attacks and blows himself up.

A fairly likely scenario. I do wonder if JV will try and counter a Pog attack at some point or if he'll be satisfied with his margin, decide not to go too deep and just sit on his wheel.

 

[meat puppet]

If Vingo is even semi ok, Jumbo should just drill it from the go like last week. Of all people they should know that against Pog you have to use the Ripley method.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCbfMkh940Q

 

[Trofonios]

A fairly likely scenario. I do wonder if JV will try and counter a Pog attack at some point or if he'll be satisfied with his margin, decide not to go too deep and just sit on his wheel.

If he see a weakness and that an attack won't risk him much (say 1-2k before top of la Loze), he will attack.

 

[Trofonios]

Question is if TJV will ride quite hard if UAE doesn't do it, believing a more tired Pog on la Loze will have a harder time making a strong attack. Of course, that could be risky, but I guess Vinge will let his teammates know if he has super legs or just average legs.