Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 17: Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc - Courchevel, 165.7k

[JosefK]

We've come a long way since Paris-Nice, eh? Back in the good old days when Gaudu was beating Vingo on GC.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

Vingegaard and Pogačar to ride away on the Saisies and put everyone bar the Top 10 outside the time limit. Vingegaard then gives Pogi ‚the look‘ 5k from the summit of Loze and wins by 2 minutes.

It won't happen, but the stastical probability is also not 0.

 

[houtdffan]

Pog needs to do a suicide attack on the Roseland

Risk a total implosion and even losing a top 10 overall. It's his only chance to win. The Loze should favor Vingegaard (it is simply a longer version of the traditional MTF at Courchervel)

 

[Kaptain Kool]

We've come a long way since Paris-Nice, eh? Back in the good old days when Gaudu was beating Vingo on GC.

Don't count your chickens before they rob hatch. Still got 5 stages 'til Paris.

 

[rallybanana]

If Sepp Kuss can win this stage we could have a situation where every rider in the top 7 also has a stage win

 

[movingtarget]

Think Vingo will try something on the final climb just to see how Pog reacts. Pogacar will obviously try something. Don't see Yates being sacrificed at this stage. Most teams these days don't waste podium opportunities especially at this stage of the race. Hindley could try something on the final climb if he has recovered a little unless he has already decided to ride for fifth place.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

Remember Floyd Landis, who lost time to La Toissuire.

The next day, Floyd was the rider of the day, dropping Sastre et al by almost six minutes!…

Fun fact: that day, Floyd attacked at the Saisies climb. The Saisies will be the first climb, today, again…

I could imagine a Pogacar attack at the Saisies, already. Or, at the latest, at the Roselend.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Remember Floyd Landis, who lost time to La Toissuire.

The next day, Floyd was the rider of the day, dropping Sastre et al by almost six minutes!…

Fun fact: that day, Floyd attacked at the Saisies climb. The Saisies will be the first climb, today, again…

I could imagine a Pogacar attack at the Saisies, already. Or, at the latest, at the Roselend.

I only see that if UAE is able to drop all Jumbo’s doms but Kuss. Obviously the rain will help.


I don’t know if I should get up early or not to catch the whole stage in case something crazy happens or just read the forum to catch up.

 

[SHAD0W93]

If I’m looking at the right forecast it looks like it’s 33 degrees F now and raining but the rain is supposed to stop around 10 in the start town. Then the route looks like it’ll be in the 60-70s F with chances of rain.

 

[ppanther92]

You are all talking like if Pogacar just is aggressive enough he can ride away at any point and make it exciting. Reality will be - Jumbo is the strongest team and even if UAE manages to drop all of the domestiques, Vingegaard will counter every move with ease. So I fully expect that nothing will happen, even if Pogacar is trying.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Wonder if Vingo has woken Pog up yet, from their night of spooning. It's where Vingo has been all race and where he will stay. Stuck to his a$$.

 

[frisenfruitig]

Rain or no rain, Vingegaard would need to have his worst day of the tour today for Pogacar to stand a chance. Can't see it happening but I would love to be proven wrong.

 

[staubsauger]

With the stage design the likes of Gall & Gaudu or Adam Yates should be able to ride away if Vingegaard & Pogacar ain't got no interest instead of a weak breakaway. Guess that's the reason we've got this long section between Loze and Roseland. It actually worked out fine at the Tour de Suisse with Albulapass. So I understand why ASO designed the stage that way.

Question is whether AG2R or Francaise des Jeux would chase if Jumbo isn't interested. Actually Ineos should do too for Rodriguez. If Yates feels comfortable UAE might join despite the fact that Pogacar is kinda out of the fight for yellow. Unless Vingegaard unexpectedly has a major meltdown.

If this goes to a random breakaway it would be a big letdown. Unless Thibaut Pinot wins in Courchevel of course!

 

[theyoungest]

Rain or no rain, Vingegaard would need to have his worst day of the tour today for Pogacar to stand a chance. Can't see it happening but I would love to be proven wrong.

It's also a question whether Vingegaard is bad in the rain, we haven't seen any evidence of that. It certainly suits Pogacar, but then again, if he's really tired surely riding in the rain and cold won't benefit him either.

It does make the race more unpredictable and less easy to control, which is obviously what Pogacar needs.

 

[LookProGoSlow]

No sour grapes here, but I am considering not even watching. The tour is not over, but I think it is over, if you know what I mean. Been super entertaining until now, but if I were JV I'd just control the sh•t out of it from here on and follow Pog like a shadow wherever and whenever. I believe that's what they'll do and hence there won't be much 'to see' in todays stage. Choo choo all the way up the Loze.

 

[Stelvio]

Meteo France's forecast for Courchevel: Around 25 degrees C, and fairly clear skies all day.

Edited to add: You have to click each hour, and then it shows some showers all day too. Not the clearest website..

https://meteofrance.com/meteo-montagne/courchevel/732271

 

[Lequack]

No sour grapes here, but I am considering not even watching. The tour is not over, but I think it is over, if you know what I mean. Been super entertaining until now, but if I were JV I'd just control the sh•t out of it from here on and follow Pog like a shadow wherever and whenever. I believe that's what they'll do and hence there won't be much 'to see' in todays stage. Choo choo all the way up the Loze.

Jumbo planned the TT performance, that's why they were content with Vinge just following Pog even with the slim advantage. Now they can relax, heck they can even rest their whole team.

 

[Trofonios]

So will UAE risk it all today or is the strategy to use both stage 17 and 20 to take back 1:48?
I think the latter. Make the stage hard and attack on the steep section on la Loze and hope that Vinge is not on his best day. Then Pog might distance Vinge with 30-45s on the climb, add to that bonus seconds at the top and the finish and Pog will will be within a minute back. Now Pog will have some momentum and Vinge will feel more pressure. Then all out war on stage 20.

 

[Squire]

A few years ago, this stage would have had Mikel Nieve written all over it.

I would kinda love Vingegaard to go thermonuclear once again. If you're gonna dominate, then don't half-ass it. Full Robo-Basso style!

 

[Lequack]

I would kinda love Vingegaard to go thermonuclear once again. If you're gonna dominate, then don't half-ass it. Full Robo-Basso style!

For Denmark.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Vingegaard attacks final km of Loze and wins by 30s

vingegaard goes at the foot, drops Pog after 5km of doing 7w/kg. Then does 7.2 w/kg until the top winning by 8 minutes.

 

[Peter von]

Remember Floyd Landis, who lost time to La Toissuire.

The next day, Floyd was the rider of the day, dropping Sastre et al by almost six minutes!…

Fun fact: that day, Floyd attacked at the Saisies climb. The Saisies will be the first climb, today, again…

I could imagine a Pogacar attack at the Saisies, already. Or, at the latest, at the Roselend.

Clinic stuff aside Floyd Landis also gained a lot of time on that stage because the GC teams of that tour all played poker trying to get the other guys to do all the work.
Also see CSC gifting a two time top ten rider half an hour. Now I don’t reckon Jumbo would try to convince Bora that Pogi going with most of UAE is their problem, then again something something Rabofail.

So will UAE risk it all today or is the strategy to use both stage 17 and 20 to take back 1:48?
I think the latter. Make the stage hard and attack on the steep section on la Loze and hope that Vinge is not on his best day. Then Pog might distance Vinge with 30-45s on the climb, add to that bonus seconds at the top and the finish and Pog will will be within a minute back. Now Pog will have some momentum and Vinge will feel more pressure. Then all out war on stage 20.

It is really interesting. Surely UAE will try to apply pressure today and test if Jonas went too deep yesterday, slim chance but it’s probably the best they’ve got also a possible way to get another stage win and it doesn’t jeopardize 2nd place.

Bjerg yesterday evening told Danish tv2 that Yates was third and they might look to keep it that way.

So I think they’ll be quite conservative in terms of burning through Yates and Pogi.

Maybe they send Majka, Soler, Bjerg and Grossi up the road and try to get Jumbo to chase so Keldermann and Kuss hits the front too early. But I think they save that stuff for stage 20.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Jumbo planned the TT performance, that's why they were content with Vinge just following Pog even with the slim advantage. Now they can relax, heck they can even rest their whole team.

They also planned for today to be decisive and the way they approach racing I wouldn't be surprised if they want another stage for Vingegaard and another demonstration off who is the strongest. I'll be baffled if this ends up being an uphill stalemate all over again.

 

[Volderke]

If JV still wants WvA to have a stage win, they should try and drop all sprinters and make sure those are OTL, so WvA can win the stage tomorrow.
For today... I guess it's for the break. Too risky for someone in the top 5 go go for it, they'll all wait for the last climb.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

If JV still wants WvA to have a stage win, they should try and drop all sprinters and make sure those are OTL, so WvA can win the stage tomorrow.
For today... I guess it's for the break. Too risky for someone in the top 5 go go for it, they'll all wait for the last climb.

Pogacar has like a 7 minute advantage to the next guys, I think he could risk something. If this is the stage to go from before the last climb though that's true, but Loze is very long. I think it will be for nothing though as Jumbo is just gonna steamroll everyone just as they planned on doing.