Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 2: Vitoria-Gasteiz - Donostia/San Sebastián, 208.9k

[hayneplane]

Powless won San Sebastian in 2021, so wouldn't be out of the ordinary if he did well today.

That win needs a massive asterisk against it because most of the World Tour riders were away in Japan at the time for the Olympics.

 

[search]

Torstein Træen will start again today, despite the "little fracture" in his elbow:

"Torstein has had a good night's sleep and is responding well to treatments from last night and this morning. We did some checks on the bike this morning which he passed without any problems.- Despite the fact that there is some discomfort, both Torstein and I are clear that he will start today, while we continue to keep an eye on him during the stage and the coming days, says Rory Nolan, who is the team doctor at Uno-X.", via TV2.dk

 

[Trofonios]

VDP doesn't believe so. He says there's no shot tomorrow.

No shot? He actually said that? So I guess he fears that the Jaizkibel climb is too long of an effort for him. But it will depend on how hard the climb is raced, and how hard the stage have been up till then. And even if he is dropped he is a good descender and could catch on in the descent. MVDP playing some sort of mind games here?

 

[Red Rick]

No shot? He actually said that? So I guess he fears that the Jaizkibel climb is too long of an effort for him. But it will depend on how hard the climb is raced, and how hard the stage have been up till then. And even if he is dropped he is a good descender and could catch on in the descent. MVDP playing some sort of mind games here?

It sounds like MvdP expects full blown GC action basically, which is really weird. Jaizkibel is not that hard, drafting should be massive, especially considering there's no hard climbs before then, so they should start the climb with a nearly full peloton.

 

[Jagartrott]

VDP doesn't believe so. He says there's no shot tomorrow.

It's apparently a different MVDP than the guy who did a top-10 in Lombardia.

 

[Red Rick]

It's apparently a different MVDP than the guy who did a top-10 in Lombardia.

Bottom end of the top 10, 6 minutes down in a very weak field. Lombardia is a useless data point.

But this is the sort of climb where you just really hope Van der Poel can crest in the first 30 at least, even if it's a strong field. There's a little recovery in the middle, average speed is high, so drafting is high. The only steep pinch is also before any attack would normally be launched, etc.

UAE also may not even race it that hard because if they really race it super hard then Vingegaard will simply get 2nd on top and only lose 3 seconds.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Bottom end of the top 10, 6 minutes down in a very weak field.

That Van der Poel could still win this stage.

 

[Red Rick]

That Van der Poel could still win this stage.

Nothing about his results in 2020 indicate that he peaked anywhere near Lombardia. So no.

 

[search]

I wouldn't completely discount MvdP either, but if he is sth like a Top 40 climber in this field, how far ahead is that of Philipsen today? I'd think it makes more sense to focus on him, if he feels good enough to go for it.

 

[AlfaLum]

I wouldn't completely discount MvdP either, but if he is sth like a Top 40 climber in this field, how far ahead is that of Philipsen today? I'd think it makes more sense to focus on him, if he feels good enough to go for it.

Nah don’t think so. Philipsen doesn’t stand a chance here if there is even one team that wants to race today.

 

[DNP-Old]

Smith the iron while it's hot: make it a hard Jaizkibel, send Yates up the road and force Vingegaard into making a decision. It's only 8 kilometers from the bottom to the line.

 

[Trofonios]

I wouldn't completely discount MvdP either, but if he is sth like a Top 40 climber in this field, how far ahead is that of Philipsen today? I'd think it makes more sense to focus on him, if he feels good enough to go for it.

The chance of Philipsen making it over Jeizkbel close to the front is close to zero. So it would not be wise to go deep for Philipsen today when two sprint stages are coming up and his rivals will take it easy today.

 

[Pantani_lives]

If Simon Yates reaches the top of the Jaizkibel first, he'd take 8 bonus seconds, so he'd be tied with Adam. In that case the sum of their places at the finish would determine who wears yellow. E.g. if Simon finishes fourth and Adam sixth, Simon would take yellow.

Wouldn't it be fun if both brothers were to wear yellow in the same Tour? Well, most people wouldn't know Simon from Adam anyway.

 

[Rob5091]

Something happened at the signing on? Video feed has disappeared.

 

[search]

The chance of Philipsen making it over Jeizkbel close to the front is close to zero. So it would not be wise to go deep for Philipsen today when two sprint stages are coming up and his rivals will take it easy today.

it's a 50pt stage, in my opinion, no one who aims for green can afford to take it easy today

 

[Trofonios]

it's a 50pt stage, in my opinion, no one who aims for green can afford to take it easy today

He said in an interview before the start that they are going for Mathieu today. He himself will focus on intermediate sprint, help Mathieu and then save his legs for the two upcoming to stages. As expected.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I‘ll have to correct myself, Simon Yates looks ready for the Bora train.

 

[KZD]

I expect either an attacker to win, Mohorič and Bilbao are both good picks for that or a reduced bunch sprint with Van Aert, Van der Poel, Alaphilippe, Pidcock, Aranburu, Strong and Pogačar.

I don't think a breakaway will get to the finish because UAE will probably control for Pogačar to take bonus seconds at the top of Jaizkibel.

 

[DNP-Old]

Rain.

 

[Boehmand]

Pre-stage interview with Mads Pedersen on Danish TV2.

They ask him about the conversation he had with Sagan on the road yesterday, after the intermediate sprint.

Mads P: "He asked me what chainring I was riding, as he couldn't keep up in the sprint"

TV2: "So what did you reply?"

Mads P: "A bigger one than you"

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Jens Voigt clueless as always.

 

[search]

He said in an interview before the start that they are going for Mathieu today. He himself will focus on intermediate sprint, help Mathieu and then save his legs for the two upcoming to stages. As expected.

okay. In Danish media, Skjelmose just said that they are aiming for the win with Mads Pedersen today. So the teams seem to have different ideas how this stage unfolds.

 

[KenFiamingo]

The person who signed off on this green jersey should be banned from cycling for life.
How was this ever a good idea?

 

[Trofonios]

Jens Voigt clueless as always.

Skjelmose winning today presumes at least that Pog and van Aert are not there in the end. The only way that could happen without a crash is Skjelmose going nuts on the decent. But why would a GC rider take big risks on a decent on stage 2 in the tour?

 

[Rackham]

The person who signed off on this green jersey should be banned from cycling for life.
How was this ever a good idea?

Maybe it has something to do with the Skoda sponsorship? Money talks, ergo the color scheme might be related to that: https://www.skoda.fr/skoda-et-vous/tour-de-france-2023

In other news, Eurosport's predictor always overcomplicated matters, i.e. I say stage 2 will be won by the rider... who finishes first.

And unless there's a commissaire decision to declassify the winner, I believe my prediction is infallible.