Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 5: Pau - Laruns, 162.7k

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KZD

KZD

Feb 21, 2019
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I think the breakaway will have a good chsnce to win, Powless should go with one of the Colombians for EF and someone like Jorgenson needs to start doing something.

However I think UAE is going to try and control this for Pogačar to gain a few more bonus seconds but without Jumbo I don't think they will succeed. If Jumbo sets up a Vingegård attack I don't think he gains time on Pogačar, even if he drops him near the top of Marie Blanque, Adam Yates won't be very far and other GC contenders could help chasing him down to, so in that scenario he would most likely get caught and beaten by Pogačar at the end unless he has a teammate up the road.
 
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Peter von

Aug 23, 2012
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It's a tough one to call, the stage hunters will give a go for sure. the 70 k flat combined with good chances for the break to be allowed to decide the stage, makes it really tough to get into the right break and for the break to even form. It also means the break could be full of rouleurs and have very few if any real climbers in it. the climbers then might try and jump on the first climb if the gap isn't too big.

UAE might control, but honestly it's still early in the tour and their team needs to last 2,5 weeks more. Maybe it's actually clever to use the terrain now before Sepp Kuss get's going.

I could see a situation where the break just doesn't form because 70 guys are all trying to get in and they just keep closing it down. If this goes on for too long, UAE will re-saddle and semi-control and see if Pogi can take the seconds. Wout might also try to get into the break and UAE probably should have learned from last year, that they need to avoid that on big mountain stages.
On stage 2 UAE put Trentin in the strong group that almost got away, but then Jumbo pulled it back and they ended up with a very manageable 3-man group. Something similar could happen, where the two teams try to cancel each other out.

most likely though, IMO, it's a big break that get's away and a sprint finish between a smaller group of riders in the end.
 
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Faserr

Jun 22, 2009
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This stage seems to be better for attacking then the stage tomorrow. No headwind at the valley. Light tailwind. I don't know if anyone wants to do something, but UAE could try something with Pog or Yates.
 
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dobrien

Jul 10, 2009
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solo80k said:
Whoever goes full alien today, will be vulnerable tomorrow. Or at least I hope so.

Jonas is yellow after this stage.
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I would be really surprised if this happened; Jonas is smart and seems to have his eyes firmly on the prize (even if others on JV do not); this just isn't the stage for him to make a serious mark. In the very remote chance Pog has an awful day he would obviously want to capitalize on that but I just don't see it happening. For the big GC riders today seems more like a softener for what's to come. We shall see!
 
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Pirazziattacks

Pirazziattacks

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May 14, 2017
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This looks like a perfect opportunity for a non dangerous rider to take the jersey if they can get enough support on the flat. I can't see any teams chasing other than UAE or maybe Jumbo if they really want to test Pog on a longer climb. Lafay, Woods, Teuns, Cras and Tejada are all perfectly placed to give it a shot.
 
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Martinstranger

Apr 7, 2018
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dobrien said:
I would be really surprised if this happened; Jonas is smart and seems to have his eyes firmly on the prize (even if others on JV do not); this just isn't the stage for him to make a serious mark. In the very remote chance Pog has an awful day he would obviously want to capitalize on that but I just don't see it happening. For the big GC riders today seems more like a softener for what's to come. We shall see!
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Agree - I think Jonas would like to wait. He's very aware that his force is on the long and high mountains. But maybe they have to do a test - just to see if Pogacar is totally back in form or if he might still lack some form.

But overall I really think it depends on how the stage unfolds. If Jumbo have two or more guys out in front who can help on the flat, then they have to test Pogacar out. Maybe they could get Adam Yates out of the competition in the same move, so they don't have to think about him.

I might limit my expectations today and only see it as a warm-up for stages to come. But as always - it's the riders who make the race and there are possibilities.
 
Lequack

Lequack

Jul 10, 2014
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frisenfruitig

Jul 28, 2010
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Martinstranger said:
Agree - I think Jonas would like to wait. He's very aware that his force is on the long and high mountains. But maybe they have to do a test - just to see if Pogacar is totally back in form or if he might still lack some form.

But overall I really think it depends on how the stage unfolds. If Jumbo have two or more guys out in front who can help on the flat, then they have to test Pogacar out. Maybe they could get Adam Yates out of the competition in the same move, so they don't have to think about him.

I might limit my expectations today and only see it as a warm-up for stages to come. But as always - it's the riders who make the race and there are possibilities.
Click to expand...

The Col de Soudet is 15 km @ 7% and the final climb is 8 km at almost 9% average gradient. If one of the two is stronger then this is more than challenging enough to drop one another and create a significant time gap. Of course it's possible nothing happens but if they feel like it this could be decisive.
 
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