Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 9: Saint-Léonard-de-Noblat - Puy de Dôme, 182.4k

[Devil's Elbow]

The first HC MTF of the race would normally be a day where the GC gets reshuffled, but this Tour is not normal and so here, it's another instalment in what is shaping up to be an epic battle between Vingegaard and Pogacar. Who will join the likes of Coppi, Bahamontes, Gimondi, Ocaña, Van Impe and Zoetemelk on the roll of honor as the first new entry in 35 years?

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The route
The riders roll out in Saint-Léonard-de-Noblat, the town forever synonymous with Raymond Poulidor. While there's only the one big climb on this stage, the Massif Central is anything but flat and so, after a rolling first 20 kilometres, there's a decent, but uncategorised climb to the sprint at Lac de Vassivière, home of TTs in the 80s and 90s.

From here, it's a long trek over the Plateau de Millevaches, which in two places is hilly enough to merit cat. 4's: at Côte de Felletin...

...and Côte de Pontcharraud.

After trading the Limousin for the Auvergne, the riders eventually dip into a deeper valley. The climb out of it, Côte de Pontaumur, is a cat. 3.

The landscape then becomes noticably volcanic in origin as the riders head for the uncategorised Col du Vauriat, the true summit of Col de la Nugère, from its easy side.

After descending into Clermont-Ferrand, it's immediately time for the MTF. Just like on Marie-Blanque, it's all about the steep final 4k (averaging 11.8% here compared to 11.6% for Marie-Blanque), but the preceding section is both longer and steeper.

Final kilometres

 

[Red Rick]

Tour de France 2023, stage 9: Saint-Léonard-de-Noblat - Limoges, 182.4k​

 

[RedheadDane]

Am I to understand that they're going to move Limoges to the top of Puy de Dome?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

My proofreading skills are unparalleled...

 

[Red Rick]

Something is missing this stage

 

[Netserk]

30+ degrees at the bottom.

Significant wind, mostly headwind. But good far an attack in the last 1.5 km.

 

[Red Rick]

Headwind is a big problem even at 11-12%.

 

[Netserk]

Van Aert and Kelderman should hold a good pace from 4.5 km to go until 2 km to go to set up Kuss for the takeoff.

Headwind is a big problem even at 11-12%.

But tailwind on the expected place for an attack should make it easier to create gaps.

 

[Monsi]

30+ degrees at the bottom.

Significant wind, mostly headwind. But good far an attack in the last 1.5 km.

Jumbo to wittle down the field then until the last 2 km (the start of crosswind section) before Vingegaard launches then see if Pogacar can follow. If both riders go to the finish together, then the rest of the GC contenders might be 2+ mins behind (if the last km of Tourmalet is anything to go by).

 

[Red Rick]

You don't wanna be down to 5 riders from 4-2km cause in 2nd wheel you eat a lot more wheel than in 3rd wheel.

 

[SafeBet]

Headwind is a big problem even at 11-12%.

Headwind only exists on Italian climbs.

 

[Red Rick]

Headwind only exists on Italian climbs.

Damn mainstream media missing parts of Switserland getting annexed by little green Italian men.

 

[DNP-Old]

Puy de Dome, can't believe we actually get to see this. Of course, I will make my way to the mountain and subsequently punch any rider I see in the liver. Got to respect the legend.

 

[Red Rick]

Jumbo to pace really hard for Pogacar to outsprint Vingegaard in the end.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Ciccone will be in the break where he'll try to be unnice to Powless.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I am really afraid that Vingegaard will cook Pogi here. The second half of Puy de Dome is very similar to Marie Blanque and if we add a super hot weather, Vingegaard can put more than a minute on Pogi.

 

[Rackham]

Jumbo to pace really hard for Pogacar to outsprint Vingegaard in the end.

It's not impossible, i.e. after 8 stages, Jumbo are still without a win. It would be so tempting to go for it here with Vingegaard... but the risk is real.

Grischa might have a sleepless night.

 

[Boehmand]

Puy de Dome looks like such a cool climb, the road just keeps circling the mountain, with no hairpins at all

For sure this is a GC day, and with how tight the GC is between the big 2, I would venture a guess neither Jumbo nor UAE will let a break get more than 2 minutes, because they want the bonus seconds on the line.

 

[Netserk]

I am really afraid that Vingegaard will cook Pogi here. The second half of Puy de Dome is very similar to Marie Blanque and if we add a super hot weather, Vingegaard can put more than a minute on Pogi.

I think 20’’ is more realistic as an upper bound if Pogi is good. 10’’ + 4’’ bonus would still be sweet.

 

[Kwaremonster]

I think this stage will be a dud. Jumbo will ride more defensively this time and pogacar will be cautious too. Action in the last 2 km or something..

 

[Gigs_98]

I think this is where we see stage 6 was an outlier only happening because Vingegaard cooked himself on the Tourmalet. Don't expect him to drop Pog by another minute (let's not forget the gap on top of Marie Blanque wasn't that big either) but I still expect him to finish first out of the gc group by a sizeable margin.

 

[EddyMazzoleni]

I think this is where we see stage 6 was an outlier only happening because Vingegaard cooked himself on the Tourmalet. Don't expect him to drop Pog by another minute (let's not forget the gap on top of Marie Blanque wasn't that big either) but I still expect him to finish first out of the gc group by a sizeable margin.

But at he same time stage 5 must be a negative outlier for Pogi, no way he is able to follow on Tourmalet with such ease if he has the same leg as the day before.

 

[Boehmand]

Roll on the standard guesses:

"Pog will drop Vinge"
"Vinge will drop Pog"
"They can't drop each other"

Pick your personal preference - the truth is none of us have the slightest idea what will happen, which makes this Tour very cool indeed

 

[Eclipse]

The only way Vingeghoul doesn't kill the race here is if they panic about Pog beating him up the other day and ride conservatively instead.

 

[Red Rick]

I think this is where we see stage 6 was an outlier only happening because Vingegaard cooked himself on the Tourmalet. Don't expect him to drop Pog by another minute (let's not forget the gap on top of Marie Blanque wasn't that big either) but I still expect him to finish first out of the gc group by a sizeable margin.

A lot depends on tactics and if someone will blast Marie Blanque.

I expect Jumbo to go for it tbh, they've been telegraphing their belief that Vingegaard can just roll over Pog for a while now. Wind conditions make it harder to make the race hard though. But it's super hard to make this climb super selective before the final 4km, and there's a big headwind predicted until 2km to go.

IMO UAE should go for this and not Jumbo, but I expect both Jumbo and UAE will go for this.