Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 9: Saint-Léonard-de-Noblat - Puy de Dôme, 182.4k

[Red Rick]

It's tricky to tell how hard Vingegaard tried to drop Pogacar on the Tourmalet though. To me it didn't look like an all out attack, which is understandable considering it came with 50k to go. I think it's very well possible that had the stage finished on the Tourmalet Vingegaard would have dropped Pogacar there. But then I admit that's a lot of speculation from my side.

Watching his attack on the Tourmalet again with the knowledge of how the stage ended, maybe the power dynamic really just shifted from stage 5 to stage 6. Vingegaard really looked a lot less explose than the previous day. In any case, I simply cannot help but look at stages 5 and 9, notice how similar the final climbs look and hence expect a somewhat similar outcome.

I think there's many different interpretations you can have, but I find "Vingegaard totally could have dropped Pogacar but chose not to" the least plausible one.

 

[Grayguard]

The only way Vingeghoul doesn't kill the race here is if they panic about Pog beating him up the other day and ride conservatively instead.

Who is this "Vingeghoul" you're reffering to?

 

[Trofonios]

Vingegaard and Pog watch each other and Bardet sneaks away, raises his hands in the air just before the line to celebrate for his home fans and all of a sudden Pinot is there and wins the stage with a bike throw. Madiot goes absolutely ballistic and then collapses. Everyone is worried but then he gives thumbs up in the ambulance (with a smiling Pog in the background). Pinot and Bardet are both in tears, but for different reasons. Wout throws a bottle just for show.

 

[Andy schleck]

It's not impossible, i.e. after 8 stages, Jumbo are still without a win. It would be so tempting to go for it here with Vingegaard... but the risk is real.

Grischa might have a sleepless night.

Grischa first needs to know how vingegaard feels during the stage.

 

[Boehmand]

My scenario for tomorrow: MVDP will attack to honor papi. WVA will join with 20 others. JV will chase and the peloton will be shred to pieces. WVA and MVDP are the only ones left of the group for the final climb. When arriving close to the steep parts of the Puy de Dome with almost 2 minutes ahead, WVA will be asked to wait on Vingegaard. WVA does an incredible effort but Pogacar survives. Vingegaard attacks in the last two kilometers but Pogacar follows (barely). MVDP almost cracks but wins. He is completely exhausted. Pogacar wins the sprint for the 2nd place. Frustrated WVA confirms again for the Sporza camera that it is not "his tour" this year before jumping in the car. However, the next day he will say that the team took the best decision.

All that sounds plausible, except if that 20 man break goes, Skjelmose will be one of them, so will Gall, so will Madouas, so will Johannesen

 

[Gwbert]

Pogi gonna go for the kill. He’s one of a kind.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Grischa first needs to know how vingegaard feels during the stage.

Vinge already told Grischa how he will feel during the stage.

 

[BigCoward]

I'd happily watch every race from now to the end of time without spectstors. A significant minority are cretins.

 

[Trofonios]

If break makes it: Bilbao
If not: Vingegaard, 12s ahead of Pog.

 

[houtdffan]

You‘d think that was Super Planche. Has he started a new one? Maybe they‘ll alternate Puy de Dôme and Super PDBF from now on.

Pescheux brought us Planche

 

[JosefK]

A possibility of a Vingo vs. Pog staredown ... letting Hindley "Carapaz" them in the final 2 kilometers.

Edit: Okay, I really do need to put the pipe down, now.

 

[staubsauger]

Ineos might actually pull because they sense a chance to harm Simon Yates.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Winning your final Tour stage without any fans present is the most 'Pinot' thing I can imagine - both joyful and melancholic - so for that reason I say Pinot will from the break.
As for the two big boys, I don't think either will be super motivated to chase the break, given the nature of the profile and the uncertainty as to whether time bonuses will help or hinder you. Once the climb gets difficult, of course, they will certainly race.

 

[RobertCrawley]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1677747868529045509

View: https://twitter.com/javigoros61/status/1677747868529045509?s=20

 

[RobertCrawley]

The cat and mouse will be interesting. I could see Jumbo sending riders and then sitting back on Pogi's wheel, but I can see UAE using Yates to force Jumbo to work.

But maybe Jumbo tries with Stage 6 tactics: send Wout ahead, isolate Pogi, and attack on Puy de Dôme. They'd be called a great team if it worked, and losers (well, many unpleasant names) if it didn't.

 

[Lequack]

 

[Boehmand]

If Jumbo and USE send anyone in the break, it will only be to avoid working in the peloton, or as a safety to drop back if the captain is in trouble.

The final climb is not suited for attack until the last 5 K, at which point it doesn't really matter if you have anyone out in front, it's just the legs that decide.

 

[RobertCrawley]

If Jumbo and USE send anyone in the break, it will only be to avoid working in the peloton, or as a safety to drop back if the captain is in trouble.

The final climb is not suited for attack until the last 5 K, at which point it doesn't really matter if you have anyone out in front, it's just the legs that decide.

True, but I think there is something to criticism that Jumbo gave Pogi a free pull all day and up Cauterets-Cambasque. Can Jumbo create a scenario where they make Pogi work?

When Jonas smashed Pogi last year up the Granon, if I recall correctly, Pogi used energy early in the day chasing Wout's accelerations a few times.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Who is this "Vingeghoul" you're reffering to?

Could be Howlin' Vingo?

 

[Monte Serra]

I'd happily watch every race from now to the end of time without spectstors. A significant minority are cretins.

I kinda agree. Really enjoyed the Angliru in 2020 with almost no spectators:

View: https://youtu.be/0dx_pGk5eKw

Hope we'll see similarly great footage tomorrow, although probably less autumnal.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Been there on my bike many decades ago haven't climbed first part from Clermont-Ferrand centre, but green/blue section is really 'lying', its really insedious false flat with entire terrain rising and taking more toll than graph tells.

 

[Cookster15]

When Jonas smashed Pogi last year up the Granon, if I recall correctly, Pogi used energy early in the day chasing Wout's accelerations a few times.

Pogi chased Wout, but more importantly - Roglic. But Roglic isn't here this time and Pogi learned his lesson in 2022. JV have already played their Granon card and it backfired. JV have a second chance on Puy de Dôme but I don't think Pogacar will take the bait this time so it becomes mano a mano .

But if Vingegaard isn't strong then this is all moot. The other factor against Pogacar might be the heat - it is hot again?

Not long to wait, what a Tour that is unfolding.

 

[topcat]

Hindley will attack first. Vinnie will ask Pog to help chase him down. Pog will laugh him all the way out of the fish mongers. Vinnie will reluctantly pull. Pog will draft him (on 12% slopes, die you wheelsucker), then attack, drop Mr Personality, catch Jai and *** slap him and win the stage.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

I'd happily watch every race from now to the end of time without spectstors. A significant minority are cretins.

In this case I'm happy being a "significant minority creting"
Fully enjoying folklore tight packed bike slopes, fans being just a touch from their idols.
This is a beautiful part of our sport that we IMO should do anything for preserving. Now and then spectators and riders have a few clinces but both parties respect it as 'a part of the game'.

Ofcourse I'm with you all the way speaking more severe incidents, like spectator camera tendency starting by Guerini l'Alpe d'Huez '99, or LeTour'21 stage 1 selfie incident taking down Tony Martin - or today's stage incident with sleepy spectator in middle of the road or more dog incidents happening during last decade. *edit* the '94 official with camera taking JaJa severely down in a sprint I could also live without.

But in general I accept those as sole incident and delighted that pro road bike racing isn't a Wimbledon "quiet, please" sport and hopefully will never be ....to the end of time.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Pogi chased Wout, but more importantly - Roglic. But Roglic isn't here this time and Pogi learned his lesson in 2022. JV have already played their Granon card and it backfired. JV have a second chance on Puy de Dôme but I don't think Pogacar will take the bait this time so it becomes mano a mano .

But if Vingegaard isn't strong then this is all moot. The other factor against Pogacar might be the heat - it is hot again?

Not long to wait, what a Tour that is unfolding.

It's going to be above 90 F/32C.

That may be in Jonas' favor, but as you say, people learn and adapt.

Yes, and there are three, maybe four more brutal mountain stages.