Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 9: Saint-Léonard-de-Noblat - Puy de Dôme, 182.4k

[VayaVayaVaya]

Impossible to say with any certainty, as others have said. I can convince myself of any of the following:

• Vingegaard is just better on steep gradients and in the heat and rode stupidly a couple of days ago, so he attacks and gains up to a minute
• Pogacar is on the rise and has his swagger back in the mountains and uses his momentum to take up to 30 seconds (don’t see more than that unless Vingegaard really *** up his prep and peaked too early
• It’s a stalemate and they ride in together

Edit: I realize this post has no insights and contributes nothing. It’s nice having some real suspense right now.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

Impossible to say with any certainty, as others have said. I can convince myself of any of the following:

• Vingegaard is just better on steep gradients and in the heat and rode stupidly a couple of days ago, so he attacks and gains up to a minute
• Pogacar is on the rise and has his swagger back in the mountains and uses his momentum to take up to 30 seconds (don’t see more than that unless Vingegaard really *** up his prep and peaked too early
• It’s a stalemate and they ride in together

Edit: I realize this post has no insights and contributes nothing. It’s nice having some real suspense right now.

Only people gambling on it, have to pick. The rest of us get to happily live in the suspense of what will happen, until it happens.

 

[Pantani_lives]

How much time does the break need at the foot of the climb? Would five minutes suffice for a decent climber?

One guy I would like to see winning is Bernal, but that would probably be too good to be true.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Ok, must be due to lack of proper sleep for now 9 days/night and memory playing games with me, thought the race distance was alot longer, glancing route in December.
A mere 180k and just 3400m altitude meters without 2-3 kat1/HC obstacles. Yes, still massively hilly Massif Centrâle proper, but even raced the hardest possible way, this is for Pogi explosives at the Dôme.
Had been another story with good, oldfashioned monument distance and +5500hm, which is,absolutely doable in this terrain.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

By the way, Bahamontes even got to meet some good cyclists (and experience the invention of stock image sites) during his lifetime

 

[Volderke]

The most logical outcome of this stage is a break with Wva, and for once I hope he doesn’t have to wait and destroys all other breakaway riders in order to start (and finish) solo at puy de dome.

With regards to spectators: afaik this is a nature reserve with strict rules with regards to visitors on the way up (that’s why they have a railroad only access to the top). Just be happy there is a race going.
I once got to the bottom on a racing bike at 7am and didn’t dare to just go for it, afraid someone would stop me / give me a huge fine. So happy to see what I missed, today in tv.

 

[Aimar16]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1677782246504243200

View: https://twitter.com/NaichacaCycling/status/1677782246504243200

Check out that wild ass thermonuclear time from Bahamontes in 1959, I wonder how heavy the bikes and equipment were back then, he won't've been full skelator either, probably some insane W/KG.

Bardet only did 16'45 recently too apparently

Judging from the pictures in the tweet, it was ITT tho

 

[Sciatic]

The most logical outcome of this stage is a break with Wva, and for once I hope he doesn’t have to wait and destroys all other breakaway riders in order to start (and finish) solo at puy de dome.

With regards to spectators: afaik this is a nature reserve with strict rules with regards to visitors on the way up (that’s why they have a railroad only access to the top). Just be happy there is a race going.
I once got to the bottom on a racing bike at 7am and didn’t dare to just go for it, afraid someone would stop me / give me a huge fine. So happy to see what I missed, today in tv.

They don’t even let people hike up the trail to the top (on just any normal, non-TDF day) anymore? I guess it was ten years ago I did it, surprised if you can’t now?

 

[DNP-Old]

 

[Netserk]

How much time does the break need at the foot of the climb? Would five minutes suffice for a decent climber?

One guy I would like to see winning is Bernal, but that would probably be too good to be true.

Hindley lost 1'49'' on the full ascent of Marie Blanque, 1'34'' in the last 3.55 km.

So at least 3 minutes. I think 4 could be enough.

 

[Red Rick]

Hindley lost 1'49'' on the full ascent of Marie Blanque, 1'34'' in the last 3.55 km.

So at least 3 minutes. I think 4 could be enough.

This climb is terrible for the breakaway with the easy first half enabling a huge pace in the peloton while the top guys save energy and then an all out launch in the final 4km. Breaks tend to lose less on the final MTF on multi mountain stages IMO unless riders just crack completely.

 

[Wyndbrook]

They should all be DQ for dangerous riding.
It's been a long time, but I still remember 88 and have been waiting for a return ever since.

 

[Salvarani]

A climb with this much history, being used again... there will probably be a great fight to be in the break. Maybe they wont get a lot of time. The others (Pog and Vinge) might want to have a chance at the stage-win as well.

 

[Trofonios]

I don't think TJV will chase down the break tomorrow, maybe they are even prepared to give away yellow to someone in the break. TJV worked pretty hard yesterday, especially van Baarle, and Benoot was spent surprisingly early. Chasing down a strong break and let bonus seconds be up for grabs, my guess is that TJV are reluctant to do that. If Pog wants the opportunity to take bonus seconds, let UAE do the work then.

After what happen on stage 6 Vingegaard will reasonbly ride more conservatively, protect his lead, and wait to mountain stages that really suits him to try to gain more time on Pog, if he feels he need to. Instead force Pog to attack and spend energy, like last year.

So will Pog then attack on Puy de Dome? Not sure, he could try to set it up with Majka and Yates, but attacking 2-3k from the finish is bit of a risk considering what happened on Marie Blanque. Given that he is just 25s behind Vingegaard and presuming he don't want to risk too much, I guess a later attack close to the finish is more probable, or just an attack to shake Kuss so it's just man against man like on Mende last year.

 

[tobydawq]

Official word is that there will be no spectators I heard on German Eurosport, which is very sad.

I heard on a Danish podcast that they'd use heat-detecting drones to monitor whether anyone sneaks up there. Seems a bit extreme. They wouldn't be armed, though.

 

[Red Rick]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1677782246504243200

View: https://twitter.com/NaichacaCycling/status/1677782246504243200

Check out that wild ass thermonuclear time from Bahamontes in 1959, I wonder how heavy the bikes and equipment were back then, he won't've been full skelator either, probably some insane W/KG.

Bardet only did 16'45 recently too apparently

Bardet was doing a recon lol, he wasn't blasting it.

 

[Rackham]

This TdF does feel like a re-run of the 2022 TdF, except for the fact Pog is only 25 seconds down instead of 3 minutes (& a repeat of Granon is impossible due to the tactical situation).

It sounds like a cliché but Vingegaard really does need to start dropping Pog on climbs like this, or else he's going to be in trouble.

 

[pelotonIQ]

If Wout decides to breakaway UAE should also ''contribute'' with a rider or two.

 

[ice&fire]

By the way, Bahamontes even got to meet some good cyclists (and experience the invention of stock image sites) during his lifetime

Bahamontes is still alive and today is his 95th birthday.

 

[BullsFan22]

Pogačar said he thinks the final climb will blow the race to pieces. I hope he’s right. I also hope he doesn’t blow himself up. Plenty of brutal stages coming.

 

[Nick2413]

You’d think Jumbo and UAE know what went right/wrong on stages 5 and 6, and will show their cards with how they race today. I don’t think for a second Jumbo will blindly become more conservative unless they really feel Vingegaard is weaker. Either it’s a repeat of Marie Blanque or bad signs for Vingegaard.

 

[EddyMazzoleni]

It's tricky to tell how hard Vingegaard tried to drop Pogacar on the Tourmalet though. To me it didn't look like an all out attack, which is understandable considering it came with 50k to go. I think it's very well possible that had the stage finished on the Tourmalet Vingegaard would have dropped Pogacar there. But then I admit that's a lot of speculation from my side.

Watching his attack on the Tourmalet again with the knowledge of how the stage ended, maybe the power dynamic really just shifted from stage 5 to stage 6. Vingegaard really looked a lot less explose than the previous day. In any case, I simply cannot help but look at stages 5 and 9, notice how similar the final climbs look and hence expect a somewhat similar outcome.

Honestly, i think that Pogi would have won even if the finish was at the top of Tourmalet. To me, Vingegard paid for his big effort in the valley after Marie Blanque the day before. Today i still think he will be a bit stronger than Pogi, but nowhere near as much as in stage 5

 

[KZD]

I will go with Vingegård today. The final climb is likely hard enough to catch the break and I think what happened on stage 5 is a better indicator to what will happen today than stage 6 especially with the hot weather. In my opinion, Jumbo should drill in today as this is one the most favourable climbs for Vingegård due to the several kilometers above 10%.

Still, Pogačar is in good shape so I don‘t expect him to lose more than 30 seconds in stage like this.

Adam Yates should be able to be close to Hindley in a unipuerto stage like this one.

 

[memyselfandI]

My guess Pogi tries to go solo earlier than Clermont-Ferrand - no matter if there's escape group at the front or not - as he is very fast on lower slopes and can then go steep final alone with controlled effort where he's slower than Vingo.

 

[Gigs_98]

I think there's many different interpretations you can have, but I find "Vingegaard totally could have dropped Pogacar but chose not to" the least plausible one.

I mean do you think making one acceleration and then riding a steady pace all the way to the top is the best way to drop a rider? I just can't watch that ascent and think Vingegaards focus was entirely on dropping Pogacar. If it was you just don't ride like that.