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Tour de France Tour de France 2024: Stage 20: Nice - Col de la Couillole, 20/07, 132.8k

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I had doubts about Pog before today. But not now. Pog FTW. Then he gives us another demonstration in the Nice TT. The thing is he looks so fresh.
If he go for a full strike of final half-week stages, I'd guess masses would regard him 'as a bad badger', 'he should behave' and that sort of stuff. But Pogi instinct of nature will find its way.
'Nah, I'll give it to the break tomorrow'.
 
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Good news everyone. The God-King, in his infinite grace and forgivingness, has announced that the plebs are allowed to go for the stage today
Alpecin also very regularly just calls off a flat sprint stage to let plebs from minor french teams win, right?

I dno why it should be so different from a GC-perspective. He has the legs, wants to extend the lead and wants to win emphatically for himself and his team and leave no doubt.
 
Col de la Couillole looks similar to Isola 2000. Both are about 16km @ 7%.

Absolutely zero indications of Giro fatigue.So it looks like another Pogacar win. Then the TT, 7 minutes+ easy peasy lemon squeezy.
But, really someone thought That Pogacar training camo in Italy will give him signs of fatigue?
Landa did his best end of le Tour after to give everything at the Giro that year and later rode Spanish Championship. And Landa was riding, Pogacar was just training and making palmarés and money for him and his team. Of course for Thomas, Bardet,.. to have rode the Giro is a problem, they gave all, but not Pogacar.
 
We don't know...

I hope that Jonas Vingegaard has great legs and wins the stage: he's a great champion, There's no shame in losing to the best Pogacar that we have seen (so far). Jonas was hoping to be in the shape that he needed to be in, and it's clear that he's not 100%. But close; after all, he is two minutes ahead of an excellent Remco.

La Couillole is not that easy, it's first part gives no relief. With Vingo on his back wheel, I don't Remco gaining time. But again, that "flatish" stretch with 5km to go can be used to launch an attack: but if the stage win is in play, I can see Tadej attacking when the slope picks up again just one minute later.

Pogacar can make it three or four in a row...
 
Alpecin also very regularly just calls off a flat sprint stage to let plebs from minor french teams win, right?

I dno why it should be so different from a GC-perspective. He has the legs, wants to extend the lead and wants to win emphatically for himself and his team and leave no doubt.
I’m ready to do publicity for pogi. This is making me bananas. Win the stage or not. Stop talking about it. He can hide his form for whatever else he intends to conquer next
 
This Tour is a nice example of "the riders make the stage, not the profile".
Who would have expected beforhand that stage 11 will be the most exciting (give or take), with GC guys attacking and dropping each other in different constelations several times? And stage 19 rather boring, with no GC action until the final kilometers.
Stage 20 could become a nice fight for stage win, if GC teams are taking it easy indeed.
 
This Tour is a nice example of "the riders make the stage, not the profile".
Who would have expected beforhand that stage 11 will be the most exciting (give or take), with GC guys attacking and dropping each other in different constelations several times? And stage 19 rather boring, with no GC action until the final kilometers.
Stage 20 could become a nice fight for stage win, if GC teams are taking it easy indeed.
There won't be GC fight today, Pog is tired of winning. Jonas and Remco won't do anything.
 
This Tour is a nice example of "the riders make the stage, not the profile".
Who would have expected beforhand that stage 11 will be the most exciting (give or take), with GC guys attacking and dropping each other in different constelations several times? And stage 19 rather boring, with no GC action until the final kilometers.
Stage 20 could become a nice fight for stage win, if GC teams are taking it easy indeed.
I feel like with Pog and Vinge these first 1.5 week stages will always be the best as third week someone cracks
 
There won't be GC fight today, Pog is tired of winning. Jonas and Remco won't do anything.

I hope that Remco can try something to get the hero or down to give him a fighting chance in the TT. It’s 1:58 now. I thought in yesterday’s stage he was gonna get, 20, 30 seconds and perhaps a few more today, which would have made for a dramatic final TT. I still hope we’ll get something so the final stage is a lose between those two.
 
Sure, if Evenepoel attacks, Vingo will try to follow. But probably 2nd place is much more of a big deal to Evenepoel than it is for Vingo. When it has setteled a bit, Vingo will probably be extremely content with his stage win and making it to the Podium this year.
 
I think the breakaway makes it today as Pogačar will likely want an easier before the final TT tomorrow, Vingegaard will only try to defend his second place and Remco could and probably should try something but I only see Soudal pacing the last two climbs or so.

Mas missed the break yesterday so he is my pick for today as should be fresher than Carapaz, Jorgenson or S.Yates. Carapaz to close the KOM jersey.
 
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Everyone from Almeida downwards in the break. 17 minutes down should be enough for the podium boys to let them go, yeah?
I think Pog and Vingo will be happy for an easier day. It would depend if Remco wants to give it a dig at some point, so Vingo has to react. Otherwise, a coffee ride apart from the 138 riders in the break.
Pog has been as expected during this race, he's the top dog. Vingo has done amazingly well, considering his prep after the nasty crash he had, and should be super proud of his second. Remco has exceeded my expectations against top competition. He's done really well throughout the Tour, regardless if he is the right weight or not. Big well done. (I hope it all doesn't come crashing down today LOL).
I hope Carapaz manages to claim the Polka Dots, he's super in the mountains when on form.