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Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 7: Nuits-Saint-Georges > Gevrey-Chambertin, 25.3 km (ITT)

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The more I look at this TT, the less flat it looks.

Remco is still the favourite but Pogačar will surely come close, on the climb and descent he should actually take a few seconds on Remco. If this was a couple of years ago, I would have to put Roglič as co-favourite, not anymore but I still expect him to come third losing less than 30 seconds. I expect Jonas, Ayuso and Almeida to lose around 45-50 seconds to Remco.

I don’t see any non-GC rider capable of winning this TT unless the condutions change, Van Aert and Küng should at best enter into the
top5 of the stage.
 
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I think Remco, Pog and Roglič will do what's expected of them. The biggest question mark for me is Vingegaard. He lost a lot of time to Pog on a flattish descent where he needed to push a lot of power. He couldn't even hold on to Remco and Roglič in the finish and lost 2s on them. It will be interesting if that was due to not having energy or maybe his power output is not there yet. If that's the case he can lose a lot of time today. Still I don't expect it. I think Remco wins by at least 20 seconds on his rivals. Pogačar and Roglič should be close, same for Jonas. Another battle to look out for is Almeida vs Ayuso. I can see Almeida gaining time on the young Juan.
 
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The word dangerous is really being inflated....


The Monte Crostis descent was dangerous. Every descent with a bend is not.
Still remember Monte Crostis, they only didn't race it because of WW. But of we take a close toclook to the descent, oh my lord, someone was going to die! And thr organization still put some nets to "protect" riders... but that descent was dangerous as hell.
 
Because of the descent, where Evenepoel will incorporate caution, and will lose several seconds, he will ride full gaz from start to the hilltop. By descending carefully he may be able to recover something. To go full gaz again the last almost flat km. So, I think Evenepoel will be in the lead at the first and second time control. Losing some of his lead to the third time control (maybe even passed by Pogacar). But taking 3 to 4 seconds again at the finish. Winning the TT with a few seconds.
I have no idea where Vingegaard is gonna to end. But because I think his training backstand will express itself more at TT than in climbing, he will probably lose more than a few seconds on Evenepoel and Pogacar.
 
I think Remco, Pog and Roglič will do what's expected of them. The biggest question mark for me is Vingegaard. He lost a lot of time to Pog on a flattish descent where he needed to push a lot of power. He couldn't even hold on to Remco and Roglič in the finish and lost 2s on them. It will be interesting if that was due to not having energy or maybe his power output is not there yet. If that's the case he can lose a lot of time today. Still I don't expect it. I think Remco wins by at least 20 seconds on his rivals. Pogačar and Roglič should be close, same for Jonas. Another battle to look out for is Almeida vs Ayuso. I can see Almeida gaining time on the young Juan.
Just a as many question marks about Roglic based on what I have seen so far. Pretty mediocre TT course so he has no excuse to lose much time unless his form is as bad as it has looked so far plus more. Remco for the win but not by much.
 
And Evenepoel beat Pogacar in that same WCC ITT by over 3 minutes.
Pogi wasn't targeting that ITT, Evenepoel was
We've seen Evenepoel in the Dauphiné. He comfortably beat everyone in the TT. And then we saw him struggle in the mountains, getting his ass handed to him by worldbeaters like Jorgenson and Gee. Meaning he was not even close to his best and it wasn't just his weight that was off (the last MTF he was a lot better than the first MTF, both followed after the TT and he sure as f* didn't lose his 2.5kg in those 2 days). So far this week he has looked like the best version of himself and i think he will be 2 levels above his Dauphiné TT. If Pog can beat him, then he needs to start taking the WCC ITT seriously because then he can win that as well.
Pogi wasn't in the Dauphine. Evenepoel was specifically targeting the ITT rather than GC, as he knew he wasn't going to win GC
You say shorter TT's favor Pogacar, but he lost the shorter flatter TT in the Giro to Ganna by half a minute, it was the longer one he won. Evenepoel crushed Ganna in the 19k opening TT in last year's Giro by 22s if you are eager to look for references
Pogi is better at shorter TTs relative to Evenepoel, not relative to Ganna who is world record holder over 4km. Also, the second ITT was completely flat which also favours Ganna
 
Pogi wasn't targeting that ITT, Evenepoel was

Pogi wasn't in the Dauphine. Evenepoel was specifically targeting the ITT rather than GC, as he knew he wasn't going to win GC

Pogi is better at shorter TTs relative to Evenepoel, not relative to Ganna who is world record holder over 4km. Also, the second ITT was completely flat which also favours Ganna
We'll find out in a couple of hours, I think you are going to be dissapointed. Score will become 6-0 after this race.