I wonder if MVDP will make an effort tomorrow. He was 5th in the 27km TT that some have compared to this one, but didn't put in much of an effort in last year's TDF TT. In 2021 he was battling for the yellow jersey.
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Yeah, but we should also consider the shape of everyone. Landa was clearly not at his best at Dauphiné and Remco is always flying in TT, but I hope he lose max 1:30 tomorrow.
Pogacar has/had the perfect conditions to do the double.
Easy Giro route + very weak competition so he should've came out fresh.
As for the Tour his main (only) competitor was suffering major injuries and his condition is questionable.
This...
First thing, this stage is HUGE for Remco. If he wants to be relevant for the win (and that's the expectation for a generational rider like him), he can't lose and find himself over a minute behind Pogacar...he needs to make his gains where he can: Go Remco!
Jonas has the excuse of the long layoff, him losing Le Tour would not be the end, but this stage is HUGe (not HUGE like Remco), he's a two-time and reigning Champion. We take him lightly but I would not be surprised if he wins.
HUge for Roglic, stay alive against the other three. That's his chance to assert himself into the discussion.
Huge for Pogacar who can repeat the Giro scenario. He can make is buffer very chubby indeed...
huge for Carapaz, his road to a podium has to start here.
uge for Rodriguez: a top-5 in Nice with this field would be a great accomplishment. And for Martin too: he's not 8th yet, so he can't afford a bad day. The same goes for Landa, and no he won't lose three minutes...about two...
ge: the doms trying to stay alive for three weeks in the top-10 chase while helping a leader will want to benefit without looking like they are not entirely committed to the team: Juan, Matteo, and of course Joao. Also, can Simon pull a rabbit out of his bike? It would be nice...
e: and that should be an E- for David Gaudu. What is happening? I'm gutted...he's not The New Pinot... (expletive)
I feel that Remco will be rather pissed if he doesn't win this stage, leaders jerseys likely out of reach. Team UAE is saying that TT bike is more aero and around 1,5kg lighter, then the one from Giro and that calculations show Pogi would put additional 40s in the time he did at Giro, beating Ganna. Now i find that a bit far fetched but OK, what they are trying to say is Remco you better get your act together, tomorrow. Jonas is saying something in the lines of i didn't even check the route. Now if he surprises tomorrow then we know they are full of it. Realistically he should be behind other favourites. Rogla moving in top 3 GC tomorrow, that would be perfect, anything more than that comes down to some additional prestige.
Th e TT will shape the racing for the next week. No hiding and the end of some dreams of winning the Tour for some guys.
Vingegaard and especially Roglic need to beat Pogacar. Remco needs desperately to win and is probably favourite to do so. As these guys have struggled against Pogacar going uphill, this is a golden opportunity to get a podium spot.
Vingegaard and especially Roglic need to beat Pogacar. Remco needs desperately to win and is probably favourite to do so. As these guys have struggled against Pogacar going uphill, this is a golden opportunity to get a podium spot.
Giro stage 7, hilly ITT, Pogi beat Ganna by 16 seconds in 40.6km
World ITT last year, slightly hilly ITT, Evenepoel beat Ganna by 12 seconds in 47.8km
You'd expect Ganna be in good form for both. Pogi is in better form now than the Giro and Evenepoel is in better form now than last year. In a shorter TT, I expect it will favour Pogi. Pogi will win this stage not Evenepoel
World ITT last year, slightly hilly ITT, Evenepoel beat Ganna by 12 seconds in 47.8km
You'd expect Ganna be in good form for both. Pogi is in better form now than the Giro and Evenepoel is in better form now than last year. In a shorter TT, I expect it will favour Pogi. Pogi will win this stage not Evenepoel
The first ITT in the Tour, not counting the prologue, has always been always hugely important. The eventual Tour winner often wins it, or at least takes a chunk of time on his GC rivals. Exceptions were Delgado, Pantani and Sastre.
The climb is 1.5 km @ 6.5%, so it isn't an entirely flat time trial, but I still think it will be decided on the flat sections. This isn't comparable to the Giro, where they finished on a steep hill.
My expectations:
*Evenepoel wins the stage.
*Pogacar stays within half a minute and keeps the yellow jersey.
*Vingegaard, Roglic, Ayuso and Almeida lose less than a minute.
*Rodriguez loses over a minute.
*Landa loses two minutes.
The climb is 1.5 km @ 6.5%, so it isn't an entirely flat time trial, but I still think it will be decided on the flat sections. This isn't comparable to the Giro, where they finished on a steep hill.
My expectations:
*Evenepoel wins the stage.
*Pogacar stays within half a minute and keeps the yellow jersey.
*Vingegaard, Roglic, Ayuso and Almeida lose less than a minute.
*Rodriguez loses over a minute.
*Landa loses two minutes.
And Evenepoel beat Pogacar in that same WCC ITT by over 3 minutes.
We've seen Evenepoel in the Dauphiné. He comfortably beat everyone in the TT. And then we saw him struggle in the mountains, getting his ass handed to him by worldbeaters like Jorgenson and Gee. Meaning he was not even close to his best and it wasn't just his weight that was off (the last MTF he was a lot better than the first MTF, both followed after the TT and he sure as f* didn't lose his 2.5kg in those 2 days). So far this week he has looked like the best version of himself and i think he will be 2 levels above his Dauphiné TT. If Pog can beat him, then he needs to start taking the WCC ITT seriously because then he can win that as well.
You say shorter TT's favor Pogacar, but he lost the shorter flatter TT in the Giro to Ganna by half a minute, it was the longer one he won. Evenepoel crushed Ganna in the 19k opening TT in last year's Giro by 22s if you are eager to look for references.
Can Pog beat Evenepoel, i think it's not out of the question, but imho it's rather unlikely and the evidence to suggest otherwise is flimsy at best.
Pogi didn't target the WCITT.
If Pogi can beat Remco, it depends on the descending part of the route. It seems fast and narrow with twists and turns. Pogi, Jonas and Rogla is good at that. Remco must take risks.
Errrr... i know. Did you even read what i wrote?
If Pog can beat him, then he needs to start taking the WCC ITT seriously because then he can win that as well.
Yes? I know?
If you are referring to my comment about him losing 3 minutes in the WCC to Evenepoel, the point was that you can not use that as a reference. Because while Pog's TT's in a GT are better because 1/ he targets them and 2/ he has superior recovery during a GT compared to "non GC time trialists"... the opposite goes for Ganna. He does target the WCC over all other TT's and he does not have the advantage during a GT because he does not have the recovery of a GC rider. Meaning the entire comparison falls flat, because you can not compare Ganna in the middle of the Giro to Ganna during the WCC. In other words, Evenepoel beat the best Ganna during the WCC, Pogacar did not beat the best Ganna during the Giro.
That I agree with. But in the Giro, it was the second ITT and Pogi should be more fatigue than Ganna.
Thing is that the GC riders have less fatigue further in the race compared to others. That’s why WVA in perfect condition loses TT’s during GT’s
A non GC rider usually has worse recovery during a GT than a GC rider even if he can chose to take it easier certain days. They also prepare completely different towards a GT. But a lot depends on circumstances. Did Ganna have to work for the team a lot, or was he able to take it easy all week. Was it a hard stage or an easy stage before the TT. Those kinds of things make it even harder to compare the result of a GC rider to a TT specialist (who is not a GC rider).
Pogi will likely gain on Jonas, but lose to Remco.
Wonder what UAE’s tactics will be if Remco is within 30 seconds after the TT.
My guess is that they’ll still see Jonas as the biggest threat, even if he’s well over minute behind after the TT.
Wonder what UAE’s tactics will be if Remco is within 30 seconds after the TT.
My guess is that they’ll still see Jonas as the biggest threat, even if he’s well over minute behind after the TT.
I agree with that. When Ganna lost the first ITT, maybe he got a free pass target the second in best shape possible. INEOS needed that win.
I know, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have a lot of fatigue. Non GC riders just get tired more quickly. How else can you explain GC riders that never rode podium in a WC ITT or don’t put in that good efforts during TT’s in 1-week stage races, suddenly win by a big margin a TT in a GT?
Take for example Vingegaard. He wouldn’t win a WC ITT ever, even though he destroyed everyone last year in the TDF.
Jonas, for example, is only I'm top shape at the Tour. It's the races they target that's matter.
Küng to me is no outer top10 candidate, but a pure top5 candidate
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