Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 7: Nuits-Saint-Georges > Gevrey-Chambertin, 25.3 km (ITT)

[Pantani_lives]

The first ITT in the Tour, not counting the prologue, has always been always hugely important. The eventual Tour winner often wins it, or at least takes a chunk of time on his GC rivals. Exceptions were Delgado, Pantani and Sastre.

The climb is 1.5 km @ 6.5%, so it isn't an entirely flat time trial, but I still think it will be decided on the flat sections. This isn't comparable to the Giro, where they finished on a steep hill.

My expectations:
*Evenepoel wins the stage.
*Pogacar stays within half a minute and keeps the yellow jersey.
*Vingegaard, Roglic, Ayuso and Almeida lose less than a minute.
*Rodriguez loses over a minute.
*Landa loses two minutes.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Giro stage 7, hilly ITT, Pogi beat Ganna by 16 seconds in 40.6km
World ITT last year, slightly hilly ITT, Evenepoel beat Ganna by 12 seconds in 47.8km

You'd expect Ganna be in good form for both. Pogi is in better form now than the Giro and Evenepoel is in better form now than last year. In a shorter TT, I expect it will favour Pogi. Pogi will win this stage not Evenepoel

And Evenepoel beat Pogacar in that same WCC ITT by over 3 minutes.
We've seen Evenepoel in the Dauphiné. He comfortably beat everyone in the TT. And then we saw him struggle in the mountains, getting his ass handed to him by worldbeaters like Jorgenson and Gee. Meaning he was not even close to his best and it wasn't just his weight that was off (the last MTF he was a lot better than the first MTF, both followed after the TT and he sure as f* didn't lose his 2.5kg in those 2 days). So far this week he has looked like the best version of himself and i think he will be 2 levels above his Dauphiné TT. If Pog can beat him, then he needs to start taking the WCC ITT seriously because then he can win that as well.
You say shorter TT's favor Pogacar, but he lost the shorter flatter TT in the Giro to Ganna by half a minute, it was the longer one he won. Evenepoel crushed Ganna in the 19k opening TT in last year's Giro by 22s if you are eager to look for references.

Can Pog beat Evenepoel, i think it's not out of the question, but imho it's rather unlikely and the evidence to suggest otherwise is flimsy at best.

 

[AmRacer]

And Evenepoel beat Pogacar in that same WCC ITT by over 3 minutes.
We've seen Evenepoel in the Dauphiné. He comfortably beat everyone in the TT. And then we saw him struggle in the mountains, getting his ass handed to him by worldbeaters like Jorgenson and Gee. Meaning he was not even close to his best and it wasn't just his weight that was off (the last MTF he was a lot better than the first MTF, both followed after the TT and he sure as f* didn't lose his 2.5kg in those 2 days). So far this week he has looked like the best version of himself and i think he will be 2 levels above his Dauphiné TT. If Pog can beat him, then he needs to start taking the WCC ITT seriously because then he can win that as well.
You say shorter TT's favor Pogacar, but he lost the shorter flatter TT in the Giro to Ganna by half a minute, it was the longer one he won. Evenepoel crushed Ganna in the 19k opening TT in last year's Giro by 22s if you are eager to look for references.

Can Pog beat Evenepoel, i think it's not out of the question, but imho it's rather unlikely and the evidence to suggest otherwise is flimsy at best.

Pogi didn't target the WCITT.

If Pogi can beat Remco, it depends on the descending part of the route. It seems fast and narrow with twists and turns. Pogi, Jonas and Rogla is good at that. Remco must take risks.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Pogi didn't target the WCITT.

Errrr... i know. Did you even read what i wrote?

If Pog can beat him, then he needs to start taking the WCC ITT seriously because then he can win that as well.

 

[AmRacer]

Errrr... i know. Did you even read what i wrote?

If Pog can beat him, then he needs to start taking the WCC ITT seriously because then he can win that as well.

Pogi and Jonas have both done their best ITT in GTs.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Pogi and Jonas have both done their best ITT in GTs.

Yes? I know?

If you are referring to my comment about him losing 3 minutes in the WCC to Evenepoel, the point was that you can not use that as a reference. Because while Pog's TT's in a GT are better because 1/ he targets them and 2/ he has superior recovery during a GT compared to "non GC time trialists"... the opposite goes for Ganna. He does target the WCC over all other TT's and he does not have the advantage during a GT because he does not have the recovery of a GC rider. Meaning the entire comparison falls flat, because you can not compare Ganna in the middle of the Giro to Ganna during the WCC. In other words, Evenepoel beat the best Ganna during the WCC, Pogacar did not beat the best Ganna during the Giro.

 

[AmRacer]

Yes? I know?

If you are referring to my comment about him losing 3 minutes in the WCC to Evenepoel, the point was that you can not use that as a reference. Because while Pog's TT's in a GT are better because 1/ he targets them and 2/ he has superior recovery during a GT compared to "non GC time trialists"... the opposite goes for Ganna. He does target the WCC over all other TT's and he does not have the advantage during a GT because he does not have the recovery of a GC rider. Meaning the entire comparison falls flat, because you can not compare Ganna in the middle of the Giro to Ganna during the WCC. In other words, Evenepoel beat the best Ganna during the WCC, Pogacar did not beat the best Ganna during the Giro.

That I agree with. But in the Giro, it was the second ITT and Pogi should be more fatigue than Ganna.

 

[Berniece]

That I agree with. But in the Giro, it was the second ITT and Pogi should be more fatigue than Ganna.

Thing is that the GC riders have less fatigue further in the race compared to others. That’s why WVA in perfect condition loses TT’s during GT’s

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

That I agree with. But in the Giro, it was the second ITT and Pogi should be more fatigue than Ganna.

A non GC rider usually has worse recovery during a GT than a GC rider even if he can chose to take it easier certain days. They also prepare completely different towards a GT. But a lot depends on circumstances. Did Ganna have to work for the team a lot, or was he able to take it easy all week. Was it a hard stage or an easy stage before the TT. Those kinds of things make it even harder to compare the result of a GC rider to a TT specialist (who is not a GC rider).

 

[BullsFan22]

Pogi will likely gain on Jonas, but lose to Remco.

Wonder what UAE’s tactics will be if Remco is within 30 seconds after the TT.

My guess is that they’ll still see Jonas as the biggest threat, even if he’s well over minute behind after the TT.

 

[AmRacer]

Thing is that the GC riders have less fatigue further in the race compared to others. That’s why WVA in perfect condition loses TT’s during GT’s

Non GC rider don't go full gas where GC rider do.

 

[AmRacer]

A non GC rider usually has worse recovery during a GT than a GC rider even if he can chose to take it easier certain days. They also prepare completely different towards a GT. But a lot depends on circumstances. Did Ganna have to work for the team a lot, or was he able to take it easy all week. Was it a hard stage or an easy stage before the TT. Those kinds of things make it even harder to compare the result of a GC rider to a TT specialist (who is not a GC rider).

I agree with that. When Ganna lost the first ITT, maybe he got a free pass target the second in best shape possible. INEOS needed that win.

 

[Berniece]

Non GC rider don't go full gas where GC rider do.

I know, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have a lot of fatigue. Non GC riders just get tired more quickly. How else can you explain GC riders that never rode podium in a WC ITT or don’t put in that good efforts during TT’s in 1-week stage races, suddenly win by a big margin a TT in a GT?

Take for example Vingegaard. He wouldn’t win a WC ITT ever, even though he destroyed everyone last year in the TDF.

 

[AmRacer]

I know, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have a lot of fatigue. Non GC riders just get tired more quickly. How else can you explain GC riders that never rode podium in a WC ITT or don’t put in that good efforts during TT’s in 1-week stage races, suddenly win by a big margin a TT in a GT?

Take for example Vingegaard. He wouldn’t win a WC ITT ever, even though he destroyed everyone last year in the TDF.

Jonas, for example, is only I'm top shape at the Tour. It's the races they target that's matter.

 

[Kazistuta]

I think WVA and Kung can make it as well. What about Wærenskjold?

Küng to me is no outer top10 candidate, but a pure top5 candidate

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pogacar 30 seconds ahead of Vingegaard.

 

[Berniece]

Jonas, for example, is only I'm top shape at the Tour. It's the races they target that's matter.

I disagree, it's mostly fatigue in my opinion that has a bigger impact on the non-GC riders. Which we'll probably see today too. I wouldn't be surprised if Vingegaard doesn't even finish in the top 5.

 

[tobydawq]

It looks a bit dangerous and very technical.

The word dangerous is really being inflated....


The Monte Crostis descent was dangerous. Every descent with a bend is not.

 

[Berniece]

Guys I need some serious help. Will Mas beat Landa today h2h? Ayneone? Whoever comes to aid will be the goat screw Tadej.

Normally Mas is the better time trialist, but since he doesn't seem in decent shape, and Landa does I might give it to Landa.

 

[KZD]

The more I look at this TT, the less flat it looks.

Remco is still the favourite but Pogačar will surely come close, on the climb and descent he should actually take a few seconds on Remco. If this was a couple of years ago, I would have to put Roglič as co-favourite, not anymore but I still expect him to come third losing less than 30 seconds. I expect Jonas, Ayuso and Almeida to lose around 45-50 seconds to Remco.

I don’t see any non-GC rider capable of winning this TT unless the condutions change, Van Aert and Küng should at best enter into the
top5 of the stage.

 

[CleanCiclismo]

I think Remco, Pog and Roglič will do what's expected of them. The biggest question mark for me is Vingegaard. He lost a lot of time to Pog on a flattish descent where he needed to push a lot of power. He couldn't even hold on to Remco and Roglič in the finish and lost 2s on them. It will be interesting if that was due to not having energy or maybe his power output is not there yet. If that's the case he can lose a lot of time today. Still I don't expect it. I think Remco wins by at least 20 seconds on his rivals. Pogačar and Roglič should be close, same for Jonas. Another battle to look out for is Almeida vs Ayuso. I can see Almeida gaining time on the young Juan.

 

[Peyroteo94]

The word dangerous is really being inflated....


The Monte Crostis descent was dangerous. Every descent with a bend is not.

Still remember Monte Crostis, they only didn't race it because of WW. But of we take a close toclook to the descent, oh my lord, someone was going to die! And thr organization still put some nets to "protect" riders... but that descent was dangerous as hell.

 

[Bavarianrider]

The saddest day of the year.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

If Vinge is @ home again just about dinnertime, everything will be fine.

 

[shadowrider]

Because of the descent, where Evenepoel will incorporate caution, and will lose several seconds, he will ride full gaz from start to the hilltop. By descending carefully he may be able to recover something. To go full gaz again the last almost flat km. So, I think Evenepoel will be in the lead at the first and second time control. Losing some of his lead to the third time control (maybe even passed by Pogacar). But taking 3 to 4 seconds again at the finish. Winning the TT with a few seconds.
I have no idea where Vingegaard is gonna to end. But because I think his training backstand will express itself more at TT than in climbing, he will probably lose more than a few seconds on Evenepoel and Pogacar.