Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 7: Nuits-Saint-Georges > Gevrey-Chambertin, 25.3 km (ITT)

[Berniece]

How much time do you think Landa will lose to the likes of Remco/Pogacar?
It would be great if he can only lose 1min/1min15, but I doubt it.

3 minutes probably

 

[durtyfat7]

3 minutes probably

No way he lose 3min in a 25km route,

 

[jaylew]

My go at a top 10:

Pog
Remco
Roglic
Ayuso
WVA
Vingegaard
Kuhn
Almeida
Jorgenson
Bettiol

 

[red_flanders]

...plus the tricky and technical descent on a very wide road.

How is a very wide road tricky and technical? Hard to get my head around that...

 

[Berniece]

No way he lose 3min in a 25km route,

True, bit of an exaggeration. He lost 2:38 in Dauphine which was 34km’s, but with more vertical meters. So let’s say 1:45-2:00

 

[RobertCrawley]

L'épreuve de vérité. Yes it is.

 

[Poursuivant]

Pog
Remco +10
Vingo +27
S Yates +45
Ayuso +58

 

[willbick]

i think tomorrow we will see the result of Ving's long lay-off. He probably has barely ridden his TT bike in months and said he hasn't even been able to do an in-person recon of the course. At this level you don't suddenly produce a world-class TT result after little to no preparation. I think he will be a long way off the winning time

 

[scribers]

Pog, Almeida, Ayuso all faster than Vingo tomorrow.

I think Yates pulls the pin to conserve energy

 

[James M]

Pog, Almeida, Ayuso all faster than Vingo tomorrow.

I think Yates pulls the pin to conserve energy

If you go by vuelta results last year in the TT first week or itzula this year you can properly add Roglic on there aswell ahead of Vingegaard slightly. Not so sure here curious how Vingegaard will do here he might surprise a few lets see.

 

[James M]

How is a very wide road tricky and technical? Hard to get my head around that...

Now I get confused too. Is the descent technical or wide and power

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Odds to win according to bookies:

Remco 4 to 9
Pogi 3 to 1
Ayuso 16 to 1
Vingo 20 to 1
Roglic, Kung, WVA 22 to 1
Almedia 33 to 1

At least some people still make sense.

 

[Froome]

How is a very wide road tricky and technical? Hard to get my head around that...

Madiot gave me some beers, sorry. Very narrow*.

 

[Kazistuta]

So who's a candidate for the outer top10 placings? Armirail, Lampaert, Vauquelin and Oliviera perhaps.

Lots more interesting that picking the top3, which seems pretty consensual in here.

 

[Froome]

i think tomorrow we will see the result of Ving's long lay-off. He probably has barely ridden his TT bike in months and said he hasn't even been able to do an in-person recon of the course. At this level you don't suddenly produce a world-class TT result after little to no preparation. I think he will be a long way off the winning time

More important than the training in his TT bike, is if the shape will be there.
If the shape will be there, it will not be an issue.

Look at Van der poel in 2021. The shape was there, he finded a good TT position and did a great ITT.

Nevertheless, he trained his TT bike at least 2 times in the last month and half!

 

[Nick2413]

The real battle will be Almeida vs Ayuso. Drama if Almeida does better.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Pog, Almeida, Ayuso all faster than Vingo tomorrow.

I think Yates pulls the pin to conserve energy

I would be shocked if that's the case.

 

[peterfin]

So who's a candidate for the outer top10 placings? Armirail, Lampaert, Vauquelin and Oliviera perhaps.

Lots more interesting that picking the top3, which seems pretty consensual in here.

I think WVA and Kung can make it as well. What about Wærenskjold?

 

[Gwbert]

Remco vs Pogi for the win. Hoping for Remco as it’s his terrain and would be nice in his debut tour. Worried for Roglic/Jonas tbh, especially as it could just make it a procession.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

So who's a candidate for the outer top10 placings? Armirail, Lampaert, Vauquelin and Oliviera perhaps.

Lots more interesting that picking the top3, which seems pretty consensual in here.

Can't imagine Lampaert. This is a bit too long for him to really get a top result, also others will have managed the first week efforts better than him. And the uphill section doesn't favor him either. I could see him take it easy and come in 80th or so. Probably guys like Armirail, Küng, Vlasov, Van Wilder, Jorgenson, Gee, Oliveira, Vauquelin, Wellens, Bettiol, Kelderman, Campenaerts... would all have a shot at a top 10 on this parcours. But i can imagine some of them might not want to go all out in case they have different goals/duties. Some of those guys are (super) domestiques, others are out of GC contention and know they can't win the TT, so might want to save energy for going in breaks next week. Difficult to predict.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

1. Remco
2. Pogacar +:10
3. Roglic +:15
4. Almeida +:30
5. Ayuso +:40
6. Vingegaard +:50
….
Carlos Rodriguez +1:30
Non GC guys sprinkled in starting somewhere around Vingegaard. I won’t be shocked if I’m wrong, but based on how Vingegaard looked after he got over the Galibier, I expect him to be much closer to his rusty Vuelta 2023 performance where he lost 1:10 to Remco and :55 to Roglic than to last year’s all time performance.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Do we have any chance of rain? People are forgetting Wout, this is a TT for powerful guys

 

[Netserk]

Can't imagine Lampaert. This is a bit too long for him to really get a top result, also others will have managed the first week efforts better than him. And the uphill section doesn't favor him either. I could see him take it easy and come in 80th or so. Probably guys like Armirail, Küng, Vlasov, Van Wilder, Jorgenson, Gee, Oliveira, Vauquelin, Wellens, Bettiol, Kelderman, Campenaerts... would all have a shot at a top 10 on this parcours. But i can imagine some of them might not want to go all out in case they have different goals/duties. Some of those guys are (super) domestiques, others are out of GC contention and know they can't win the TT, so might want to save energy for going in breaks next week. Difficult to predict.

Maybe Van Wilder can equalise against Armirail to 1-1!

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Last year's Vuelta, the TT was a day after a GC day. Evenepoel was not at his best (imho), neither was Vingegaard. Distance of that TT was almost exactly the same as this one, 25.8km, but it was flatter. Evenepoel still took over 1 minute out of Vingegaard. After seeing Vingegaard struggle on the flat parts after Galibier, and with the news that he has not been training on his TT bike a lot after his crash, it would surprise me if he can stay close.

Do we have any chance of rain? People are forgetting Wout, this is a TT for powerful guys

How long has it been since he has crushed a TT? Two years?

 

[Gratemans]

At least some people still make sense.

This. I'm kinda neutral towards Remco but how can people possibly think he's not the outright favourite here?
To me, how it will play out behind him is much more interesting. And unpredictable.