It's EF so stupid is a fair assumption. But basically at the Giro Vaughters was saying their team would be based around Healy / Van Den Berg and said they were looking at a few specific stages for the latter. In which case today would surely be one of them. I actually think he would have a decent chance given that those you mention have been competing every day whereas VdB has been keeping his powder dry
I agree that it's a good stage for Van den Berg, I rate him, but I just don't see him winning tho, and when you have riders like Healy, Bettiol, etc. I don't think it would be wisely to control for him if a break has a chance.