Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 9: Troyes > Troyes, 199.0 km

[scribers]

What apparent lack of commitment? Almeida wasn't committed on Galibier? Once ordered to the front Ayuso wasn't committed? There simply is no lack of commitment by those 2.

Ayuso didn’t understand what was expected of him before then. Amirite???

 

[Gargamel35]

This one has "Roglič adjusting his shoulder after doing double summersalt over some sheep on the road" written all over it.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Considering this is cycling and this stage is more about luck than skill, would be a minor miracle if big four all finish without some issues involved.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

Flat tire and a 2 minute loss for Pogi please.

This will
a) make the race more interesting in the upcoming stages.
b) give us good UAE drama when they're all called back to help him but Ayusos earpieces unfortunately have fallen out beforehand.

 

[CyclistAbi]

If Pogi would have a mechanical i feel that other GC leaders wouldn't capitalize on that. So for Pogi to lose time tomorrow he would need to make a tactical error and after for his team to blow up.

 

[sam6]

Visma should use their team strength here try and isolate Pog.

I don't think so, while their team is stronger for this it suits Pogi much more than Vingegaard and so making it hard will only play into his hands and increase the chance of him gaining time. Visma should aim just not to lose any time to Pogi and make it up in the third week

 

[sam6]

Pogi and Mathieu battle it out.

I predict that they won't, they will be the top 2 but Pogi will gift the stage win to MVDP in return for him helping gain time on the other GC riders

 

[sam6]

I think a lot depends on what Alpecin do. There options;
1. Put MVDP in the break, or maybe some others too. If this is the case I think the break will make it and it. But why would they do this when it would prevent them using their numbers and it adds a lot of randomness to the result as MVDP will be a marked man
2. Play for a sprint with Phillipsen or MVDP if he doesn't make it. However, Phillipsen hasn't been so strong and might well get beat even if he is there
3. Attack with MVDP from the peloton. This is the most likely I think. In which case, this will help Pogi as he just needs to stick with MVDP to gain time and doesn't need to attack himself. They can fall back on Phillipsen for a sprint or attack with others before to increase their chance

I predict MVDP and Pogi will get away alone and MVDP will win the stage with Pogi gaining a chunk of time over the other favourites

 

[tobydawq]

Realistically. Things will happen. I will speak, and I will have big trouble

Will this bit never get old?

 

[AnotherArmChair]

While great as a one day race this kind of stage can lead to a GC guy losing alot of time because of a mechanical or crash and not because of strength or tactics

So I dont think it should be in a grand tour

 

[cen]

Could be a classic Moho wins from the break stage, let's see

 

[jono]

While great as a one day race this kind of stage can lead to a GC guy losing alot of time because of a mechanical or crash and not because of strength or tactics

So I dont think it should be in a grand tour

Is the ability to handle one's bike, pick lines, position oneself into sectors, etc., not part of being a great racer? Strength and tactics, sure great, but if those are the only two elements it's just a game of remote control for the DS's and the riders need never look up from their head units.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Is the ability to handle one's bike, pick lines, position oneself into sectors, etc., not part of being a great racer? Strength and tactics, sure great, but if those are the only two elements it's just a game of remote control for the DS's and the riders need never look up from their head units.

Sure, but then you puncture and all that really means nothing as in the end it's muce more about lottery. So the question is valid, on why should a lottery determine ones GC chances, compared to everything you wrote above.

Anyway, it is what it is and lets see on how this lottery unfolds tomorrow.

 

[jono]

Sure, but then you puncture and all that really means nothing as in the end it's muce more about lottery. So the question is valid, on why should a lottery determine ones GC chances, compared to everything you wrote above.

Anyway, it is what it is and lets see on how this lottery unfolds tomorrow.

There is an element of luck to punctures but that is not the only factor. A wheelsucker, for example, or someone who sits in the wheels of his teammates is much more likely to puncture than a rider who takes some wind so they can ride with their head up. Knowing how to unweight the rear of the bike at certain moments. Some of these things cost energy. Is it any more of a lottery than when an important rider is crashed out by some flick of wheels in the peloton?

I'm happy to see how it plays out tomorrow. I'm not expecting major GC changes, but if they do occur I don't expect mechanicals to be the reason.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

I better see MvdP and WvA in the break tomorrow. Or at least forcing the selection. Pidcock too, though I doubt he's allowed in the break. No Treaty of Troyes tomorrow, it's time for all out war.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

So about those gravel sectors tomorrow...

 

[ppanther92]

Why are so many fancying Remco so much for this stage? The last time we saw him on gravel it went horrible…

 

[ppanther92]

Once ordered to the front Ayuso wasn't committed?

Absolutely not. Roglic with Almeida on front - barely hanging on, Roglic with Ayuso - riding up to 3-4th position again. And yet Ayuso finished in front of Almeida.

 

[sam6]

I better see MvdP and WvA in the break tomorrow. Or at least forcing the selection. Pidcock too, though I doubt he's allowed in the break. No Treaty of Troyes tomorrow, it's time for all out war.

Van Aert will be on babysitting duties for Vingegaard

I think MVDP's best bet is to attack from the peloton, as there are less factors in play and Vermeersch, Soren Kragh, Phillipsen, Axel Laurance and perhaps even Dillier are all interesting cards to play

 

[CyclistAbi]

A wheelsucker, for example, or someone who sits in the wheels of his teammates is much more likely to puncture than a rider who takes some wind so they can ride with their head up. Knowing how to unweight the rear of the bike at certain moments. Some of these things cost energy.

Not really sure about that one, punctures to specifically target wheel suckers.

Is it any more of a lottery than when an important rider is crashed out by some flick of wheels in the peloton?

Yes in my opinion it's more about lottery.

I'm happy to see how it plays out tomorrow. I'm not expecting major GC changes, but if they do occur I don't expect mechanicals to be the reason.

I agree that big four likely wouldn't be that keen to capitalize on somebody puncturing. So if any GC gaps to be made indeed hopeful it will be due to racing.

 

[jono]

Not really sure about that one, punctures to specifically target wheel suckers.

Perhaps you've never ridden gravel in a group before. It's actually important to see where you're going to avoid obstacles. If you can only see the road half a metre in front of your wheel, you're going to hit something you didn't expect. Pretty basic and obvious.

 

[RobertCrawley]

I just hope none of the Tour favorites gets caught out with a loss of big chunks of time.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Perhaps you've never ridden gravel in a group before. It's actually important to see where you're going to avoid obstacles. If you can only see the road half a metre in front of your wheel, you're going to hit something you didn't expect. Pretty basic and obvious.

Plus the ones in front kicks up the debris.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@jono

As Pogi has said:

"You can be the best on the gravel, but if you have a puncture at the wrong moment, you can lose time, for sure. Tomorrow's going to be a lot about having good team control and concentration to the finish line."

'You can lose the Tour' on Tour de France's gravel stage, says Tadej Pogačar

'It's just another obstacle in the Tour de France. Like every other stage, a lot of other things can happen.'

www.cyclingnews.com

It's a lottery.

 

[jono]

@jono

As Pogi has said:

'You can lose the Tour' on Tour de France's gravel stage, says Tadej Pogačar

'It's just another obstacle in the Tour de France. Like every other stage, a lot of other things can happen.'

www.cyclingnews.com

It's a lottery.

Get back to me after the stage with a list of riders who punctured and we'll work out whether it was 100% luck (ie: a lottery) or not.