Tour de France Tour de France 2025 Stage 12: Auch - Hautacam (180.6k)

[Krzysztof_O]

I didn't expect a big difference between Pogi and Vingo on this stage (i.e. max. 30-40 seconds in Pogi's favour). I'm still not expecting it but yesterday maybe tipped the balance in Vingo's favour.

 

[Boehmand]

I expect EF to want a heavy presence in the break today, including Healy, which means it will be up to the GC teams to pull the peloton.

Add to that FDJ with Martin, Jayco with O'Connor, Lidl with Skjelmose and Cofidis with Buchmann are all looking to hit the break in numbers (because of the flat(ish) first 110K).

We could see a rather large break, and it will be interesting to see how much line the GC teams want to give Healy and to what degree they send their own people in the break.

Visma I think for sure is sending someone up the road, Soudal probably too - but if UAE does as well, who is left to pul the peloton? - Arkea? Picnic? Bora? It may end up being a tug-of-war to avoid taking responsibility, so that UAE or Visma ends up having to do it anyway.

 

[YavorD]

If Pogacar breaks due to his injuries, we are in for a great TDF. Vingegaard can take a lead in the next 3 days, and Pogacar will go crazy on Ventoux as well as stage 18-19.

I think it depends how how much he breaks.
If he is 2-2.30 after the Pyrenees, there may be a chance (I don't believe it, as I don't think he is THAT much stronger).
If he is 3-4 or more minutes behind, it is really Tour over.

 

[Red Rick]

I didn't expect a big difference between Pogi and Vingo on this stage (i.e. max. 30-40 seconds in Pogi's favour). I'm still not expecting it but yesterday maybe tipped the balance in Vingo's favour.

Strange how 30-40 isn't seen as big on what is essentially fairly middling HC finish on a middling mountain stages between the #1 and #2 best GT riders in the world. Schleck and Contador had that gap once on a MTF and it was the single most ballistic performance of that era.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Strange how 30-40 isn't seen as big on what is essentially fairly middling HC finish on a middling mountain stages between the #1 and #2 best GT riders in the world. Schleck and Contador had that gap once on a MTF and it was the single most ballistic performance of that era.

I said max. 30-40 so it could be i.e. 20 seconds as well.

 

[Lequack]

As we set off from St-Léonard-de-Noblat, the village of his late grandfather Raymond Poulidor, Mathieu Van der Poel is deeply moved on the signature podium.His team wore a jersey emblazoned with "Thank You Poupou" and a special bike for the stage.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1678001971876229122

View: https://x.com/DepartFictifOff/status/1678001971876229122

 

[QueenStagiaire]

As we set off from St-Léonard-de-Noblat, the village of his late grandfather Raymond Poulidor, Mathieu Van der Poel is deeply moved on the signature podium.His team wore a jersey emblazoned with "Thank You Poupou" and a special bike for the stage.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1678001971876229122

View: https://x.com/DepartFictifOff/status/1678001971876229122

What does this have to do with today, though?

 

[Peyroteo94]

Strange how 30-40 isn't seen as big on what is essentially fairly middling HC finish on a middling mountain stages between the #1 and #2 best GT riders in the world. Schleck and Contador had that gap once on a MTF and it was the single most ballistic performance of that era.

Don't forget Verbier is a 8km climb and was after a easy stage.

 

[Lequack]

What does this have to do with today, though?

Just reminiscing about the good times before the stage start.

 

[Lequack]

Do the Danes and Norwegian have a Scandinavian pack to help each other, or is it every country for itself?

 

[Valv.Piti]

I expect EF to want a heavy presence in the break today, including Healy, which means it will be up to the GC teams to pull the peloton.

Add to that FDJ with Martin, Jayco with O'Connor, Lidl with Skjelmose and Cofidis with Buchmann are all looking to hit the break in numbers (because of the flat(ish) first 110K).

We could see a rather large break, and it will be interesting to see how much line the GC teams want to give Healy and to what degree they send their own people in the break.

Visma I think for sure is sending someone up the road, Soudal probably too - but if UAE does as well, who is left to pul the peloton? - Arkea? Picnic? Bora? It may end up being a tug-of-war to avoid taking responsibility, so that UAE or Visma ends up having to do it anyway.

A rider like Healy wont be allowed to go up the road on flat roads. He's not GVA or MVDP or something like that, Healy can climb so he wont just get leeway like that.

 

[wirral]

What does this have to do with today, though?

Yes, I became very confused.

 

[Lequack]

I think it's time for Encris Mas to win a stage.

 

[ontheroad]

If Vingegaard is to have any chance then as a bare minimum he needs to finish on Pogacars wheel at the top of Hautacam. If he is dropped today, then irrespective of the time difference the psychological blow would be almost impossible to recover from. Pogacar to win the stage by 30 seconds plus as he tries to write the wrongs of 2022 when he was dropped by WVA.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Hopefully Lenny will defend the KOM jersey today, wouldn't want all that artwork to go to waste.

 

[hayneplane]

I expect EF to want a heavy presence in the break today, including Healy, which means it will be up to the GC teams to pull the peloton.

Add to that FDJ with Martin, Jayco with O'Connor, Lidl with Skjelmose and Cofidis with Buchmann are all looking to hit the break in numbers (because of the flat(ish) first 110K).

We could see a rather large break, and it will be interesting to see how much line the GC teams want to give Healy and to what degree they send their own people in the break.

Visma I think for sure is sending someone up the road, Soudal probably too - but if UAE does as well, who is left to pul the peloton? - Arkea? Picnic? Bora? It may end up being a tug-of-war to avoid taking responsibility, so that UAE or Visma ends up having to do it anyway.

I would not be surprised at all if Visma end up pacing in the break with Campanaerts and Van Aert and in the peloton with Affini and Benoot, saving Kuss and Yates until Hautacam.

 

[ontheroad]

I would not be surprised at all if Visma end up pacing in the break with Campanaerts and Van Aert and in the peloton with Affini and Benoot, saving Kuss and Yates until Hautacam.

I think Visma have to drill it today in order to test Pogacar after his crash. If thats not good enough to drop him then Vingegaard won't be winning the Tour anyway. But they need to pounce on a possible period of weakness.

 

[topcat]

We probably should have had a poll about the point at which Healy is going to lose the yellow jersey. Today, Healy will have his day in the sun, literally.
In Ireland, there are women who would cut you for the shirt on your back.
I'm guessing that after 9km of Hautacam, Ben will have virtually lost yellow.
It sure was good while it lasted.

 

[Jan the Man]

I voted Vigne to win by 0-30s - my instinct is the injuries will impede Pog in the Pyrenees but not so much to rule him out of the race for yellow next week. I would ordinarily expect in light of crash for Vigne to take some time but i don’t see Pog completely cracking. I know he had adrenaline but you don’t react as he did after the crash and send the videos last night if he has very serious damage - but the hip will be sore for a few days and will ordinarily impede

 

[Berniece]

We probably should have had a poll about the point at which Healy is going to lose the yellow jersey. Today, Healy will have his day in the sun, literally.
In Ireland, there are women who would cut you for the shirt on your back.
I'm guessing that after 9km of Hautacam, Ben will have virtually lost yellow.
It sure was good while it lasted.

I think he'll lose yellow on Col du Soulor already. Visma is going to go hard

 

[Squire]

I think Visma have to drill it today in order to test Pogacar after his crash. If thats not good enough to drop him then Vingegaard won't be winning the Tour anyway. But they need to pounce on a possible period of weakness.

Pog's crash might not have any consquences for him immediately, but might make Visma's fatiguing strategy more effective. So I won't rule out Vingegaard yet even with a bit of a time loss to Pog today. He can't take a huge pounding though, then I'd agree it's over.

 

[Heston]

I don't see the point of Visma sending people in the break. They won't be of any use to Vinge on Hautacam anyway. The whole squad should be focused on drilling it from the peloton all day.

 

[Rob5091]

The GOAT with a big bandage on his left elbow ...

 

[theyoungest]

I don't see the point of Visma sending people in the break. They won't be of any use to Vinge on Hautacam anyway. The whole squad should be focused on drilling it from the peloton all day.

If I may remind you, Hautacam is the scene of that famous pull by Van Aert where he dropped Pogacar. You know, from the break.

 

[meat puppet]

Yes, the famous incident that had nothing to do with cumulative fatigue induced by visma tactics getting the better of Pog. Wva just dropped him up a mountain because why not.

But today it's a different wva, Pog and Vinge.