Tour de France Tour de France 2025 Stage 14: Pau – Luchon Superbagnères (182.6k)

[Lequack]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1946480824968151477

View: https://x.com/procycletrumps/status/1946480824968151477

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Maybe but not so sure they let him go. . But certainly UAE / Visma won't reacte immedeately if Evenepoel tries to go.

Perhaps Visma and UAE doesn't care, but Onley, Gall, Lipo etc will be on his wheel. Result: Viama and UAE will end up reacting anyway. If remco wants to win a stage, he needs to drop more time (voluntarily or not) imo.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah, people are clowning on them but if Visma are actually serious about still wanting to try and Vingegaard not caring if he finishes 2nd or 4th (Grischas words) then they need to try today again. Instinctively you probably would want to lick your wounds after the last two days but slowly the stages where you can make a difference are running out, Unipuerto Ventoux will be a Pogacar wattfest and then you're left with only two Alpine stages that are almost less suited to a long range then today.

I've wondered for a while if the best strategy wouldn't simply be attacking with Vingegaard as early as possible and then having him and Pogacar solo the whole mountain stage Rasmussen style. The only thing that is going to beat Pogacar at this stage is his overconfidence (even admitted by UAE), he would probably work with Vingegaard and you're in a scenario where if for whatever reason something happens (bonk) you're to gain the most. "Making the stage hard and having satellite riders in the break itself" just won't do it anymore.

The entire problem is that there's no plausible way to do anything against Pogacar. And even if there's a way to get a gap, the gap is 4 minutes, and he's put you to the sword 3 times already, I wouldn't even bother. Like, if I had a genius strategy to drop Pogacar 100% guaranteed (which I do, or maybe not, it's a secret), I wouldn't even use it this year.

This all seems very different from riders racing against Sky and not attacking enough to our taste. There's 0 chance of going anywhere and any attempt to drop Pogacar with like a full gas attack like on Tourmalet doesn't look any less of a meme attack than Alaphilippe attacking Pogacar in the Amstel Gold race.

I wouldj ust wait for the final climb, try there, and hope Pogacar shows weakness. Then tomorrow, you try to get Vingegaard in the 50 man breakaway while Pogacar is asleep at the wheel.

 

[Rob5091]

Raining at the start ... get your aero wellies out!

If Pogi does n't win by at least one minute, I'll be surprised.

 

[DJO]

Robert Millar and Pedro Delgado fighting for the win on Superbagneres in 1989. That was my abiding memory from that Tour, Another finish like that would be great. I also recall that Fignon attacked and dropped Lemond in the chasing group. A battle like that would also be welcome...can Vingegaard do a similar ride and drop Pogacar? Form says no, but it's not beyond impossible.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sV_3zOlyU30&t=314s&ab_channel=socalrider909

 

[Faserr]

Breakformation is hard at the flat. Its easy to control if UAE wants to.

 

[search]

this is in the middle of two easy days for the team and with a rest day afterwards, so I'd be surprised if UAE doesn't chase, no matter who is in front. Pogi was quite clear yesterday already, saying that the break needs to be strong to stand a chance.

 

[Rule #9 apostle]

The entire problem is that there's no plausible way to do anything against Pogacar. And even if there's a way to get a gap, the gap is 4 minutes, and he's put you to the sword 3 times already, I wouldn't even bother.

Its a bit of hindsight, i know, but I never understood Vismas tactic of blowing up the race as early and often as possible. Just seemed like a recipe to increase the gaps, while what visma would want is as small gaps as possible as long as possible to be able to benefit from any mishaps, and make uae team do all the work for three weeks. At this point Pog can probably have two really bad days and it wont matter.

The bad tt didnt help, but I think Visma should have trusted that if jonas rides as conservativelyvand defensively as possible Pog does not drop him by much before the last week (and by then, anything can happen).

I think they are just very reticent to leave anything to chance or accept that they will need luck to go their way to win. They want to win by going hard and being strongest over three weeks, and plan out some genius tactic to turn it around. In reality they should just try to stay within punching distance for as long as possibe and hope for a mistakes or that the balanse of power turns.

 

[YavorD]

This is for sure an interesting point in time, tactically. They meant to throw the kitchen sink at UAE and they certainly tried, but it's netted them nothing so far. It's actually pretty interesting if you place yourself in their shoes: what would you do? Keep going at it? I mean, week 3 isn't here yet. Unlikely as it may seem right now, Pogacar might still crack?
Or not. Which seems way more likely, but you know, that might be recency bias..
So what would you do? Stick to the plan or not? And what even should their plan B be? I can't really think of one to be honest...

I would stick to the tactics (if it was to push hard in this stage).
I mean, the literally have nothing to lose and if Pogacar is gonna crack, twe harder the race is, the heavier the crack.
Besides with the injury his recovery may be hampered a bit, so 3 hard stages in a row may have some impact over him in week 3


And even if nothing of the above happens, they won't lose anything. Lipo isn't beating Vingegaard.
"i guess I'd rather die (trying) than just fade away".

 

[ashhutch1997]

I'm getting to the point where I actually want Pogacar to win, just for comical reasons. How bonkers can he go lol.

 

[EddyMazzoleni]

All this talking of tactics are nonsense. The only thing that can beat Pogi is a stage too easy to drop the sprinters. Visma should just try to win stages with other riders and keep the bare minimum help with Vingegaard t guard 2nd in GC

 

[Rackham]

There's potential for hype here. We have Visma with a leader who is pretty much 'safe' in second and very little to lose. There's colder weather and possibly some sketchy descents due to first rainfall in weeks making roads slippery. We've also got a really chaotic fight for third with various riders and teams who're blowing hot and cold without much regularity (Evenepoel and Rog in particular).

It could be epic if Visma decide to go all in and risk blowing up just to test Pog 3 days after his crash.

 

[Didinho]

White jersey going all or nothing on Tourmalet. Yellow jersey only one to follow. We can dream, right?

 

[Salvarani]

All this talking of tactics are nonsense. The only thing that can beat Pogi is a stage too easy to drop the sprinters. Visma should just try to win stages with other riders and keep the bare minimum help with Vingegaard t guard 2nd in GC

S Yates and Van Aert took it easy yesterday. Would expect them to try get in the break.

 

[ashhutch1997]

White jersey going all or nothing on Tourmalet. Yellow jersey only one to follow. We can dream, right?

Unpopular opinion, the 2010 Tormalet stage was very overatted.

 

[Red Rick]

Unpopular opinion, the 2010 Tormalet stage was very overatted.

Unpopular for good reason

 

[Psycat]

All this talking of tactics are nonsense. The only thing that can beat Pogi is a stage too easy to drop the sprinters. Visma should just try to win stages with other riders and keep the bare minimum help with Vingegaard t guard 2nd in GC

Might aswell have Vinge tank 30 min or so in that case and go for a stage in the break, like what's another 2nd place to him? Not much I suspect.

 

[ashhutch1997]

Unpopular for good reason

Schleck did one attack and they then rode hand in hand for 10km, was a damp squib. The Madeline stage was the proper battle of that Tour.

 

[ontheroad]

Any result other than Pogacar would be a surprise on a very difficult stage such as this given what we've seen in the last 2 days. It's basically Pogacar against the breakaway riders.

 

[Red Rick]

Any result other than Pogacar would be a surprise on a very difficult stage such as this given what we've seen in the last 2 days. It's basically Pogacar against the breakaway riders.

It's breakaway riders doing the domstique work for Pogacar.

 

[AmRacer]

The break is gone

 

[Tim Cahill]

That UAE climbing bike must just be absolute dog ***

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

So Milan is the breakaway today before it really starts on Tourmarlet?

 

[AmRacer]

So Milan is the breakaway today before it really starts on Tourmarlet?

Intermediate sprint

 

[Red Rick]

Boogerd telling a story of King Willy joining Rabofail on the ride to the stage start who then suddenly tried to attack team Rabofail on a short uphill saying "I pay my bodyguard by the hour he may as well work for his damn money"