Tour de France Tour de France 2025, Stage 18: Vif - Courchevel Col de La Loze(171.5k)

[Red Rick]

It hasn't been the most exciting competition so far, but today and tomorrow will also be the decisive days for the KOM classification. If Pogacar wins the stage, he will take 40 points, so whoever wants to challenge him better takes both HC climbs (also 40 points) beforehand.

There are another 40 points during the stage + 20 points at the finish on offer tomorrow if I counted correctly, so if you're going for KOM and calculate somewhat pessimistically (Pog wins both stages and you don't score on the final climbs), you should have at least around 35 (better 40) points before today. That leaves only Lenny and Arensman (plus Woodsie and VPP with an outside chance) in the running...

Wait why is there double points on the MTF now?

 

[search]

Carlos Rodriguez is reported to be a DNS today, so the magnificent Jordan Jegat moves up into the Top 10

https://twitter.com/x/status/1948268989643112748

View: https://x.com/carrusel/status/1948268989643112748

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Wait why is there double points on the MTF now?

Highest climb, Souvenir Henri Desgrange.

 

[Red Rick]

Highest climb, Souvenir Henri Desgrange.

I guess I always rated the green jersey higher than the KoM.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Cyril Barthe is out as well by the way after his crash in the final yesterday.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Most interesting race will be between O'Connor and Jegat for the coveted 10th place. Would be hilarious if somehow G. Martin managed to get in top-10 after being terrible the whole race as well

 

[Gigs_98]

Carlos Rodriguez is reported to be a DNS today, so the magnificent Jordan Jegat moves up into the Top 10

https://twitter.com/x/status/1948268989643112748

View: https://x.com/carrusel/status/1948268989643112748

The GTs this year have been unbelievably blood thirsty so far

 

[Earns1985]

Carlos Rodriguez is reported to be a DNS today, so the magnificent Jordan Jegat moves up into the Top 10

https://twitter.com/x/status/1948268989643112748

View: https://x.com/carrusel/status/1948268989643112748

That´s sad. He looked better with every stage in the race..

 

[Dazed and Confused]

The GTs this year have been unbelievably blood thirsty so far

I think the dns/dnf rate is still below avg. Maybe there is a stat on pcs.

 

[Heston]

Sad about CRod. He looked great on Ventoux.

 

[Bavarianrider]

I really don`t get why they don`t finish in Courchevel. The stage would be more than difficult with a Courchevel finish.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I think the dns/dnf rate is still below avg. Maybe there is a stat on pcs.

DNF/DNS

2025	184	22	22	1	view
2024	176	35	35	1	view
2023	176	26	26	1	view
2022	176	41	41	5	view
2021	184	43	43	1	view
2020	176	30	30	1	view
2019	176	21	21	6	view
2018	176	31	31	2	view
2017	198	31	31	1	view
2016	198	24	24	8	view
2015	198	38	38	3	view
2014	198	34	34	2	view
2013	198	29	29	3	view
2012	198	46	46	4	view
2011	198	30	30	4	view
2010	198	28	28	1	view
2009	180	25	25	3	view
2008	180	35	35	1	view
2007	189	45	45	2	view
2006	176	37	37	3	view

We are likely to see more dropouts over the next few stages, but so far its not too bad.

 

[Lequack]

Will they let Roglic in the break?

 

[Berniece]

Will they let Roglic in the break?

Will Roglic attack to be part of the break is the first question you should ask yourself.

 

[memyselfandI]

I really don`t get why they don`t finish in Courchevel. The stage would be more than difficult with a Courchevel finish.

But is it so really? Isn't it that hardest version is thru Meribel, like last time?

 

[Pantani_lives]

Tactical plan for Visma:

• Send Van Aert and Campenaerts in the break. Not Jorgenson, because he's on the blacklist.
• S. Yates, Kuss and Jorgenson set a high pace on the Madeleine.
• Attack a few km before the top of the Madeleine.
• Van Aert and Campenaerts wait to set pace in the valley.
• Go full on the Col de la Loze.

Tactical plan for UAE:

• Stay calm. Let InterPolitt control the first hour with a moderate pace. Don't send anyone in the break.
• Let Wellens, Soler and Sivakov work in the valley to keep the gap with the break below five minutes.
• Let A. Yates and Narvaez stay with the leader as long as possible.
• Ride defensively. Wheelsuck until 5 km before the finish.
• If on a bad day: limit the damage. If on a good day: win the stage.

 

[Rackham]

Will they let Roglic in the break?

Denk says the plan is to stay with the best as long as possible, so it's unlikely.

But hypothetically speaking any such move from a Red Bull Bora rider would be a real IQ test for UAE because it would be up to Picnic PostNL to start chasing and if the gap gets even bigger, Visma would have to take up the pursuit way before UAE does.

But somehow I get the impression any move from Rog and Lipo would immediately be covered by UAE.

 

[Cycling111]

With the retirements of Almeida and Carlos Rodriguez, Jorgenson's and Enric Mas´ GC disappearance,
Guillaume Martin could achieve his umpteenth top10 like Haimar Zubeldia.

 

[Lequack]

Denk says the plan is to stay with the best as long as possible, so it's unlikely.

But hypothetically speaking any such move from a Red Bull Bora rider would be a real IQ test for UAE because it would be up to Picnic PostNL to start chasing and if the gap gets even bigger, Visma would have to take up the pursuit way before UAE does.

But somehow I get the impression any move from Rog and Lipo would immediately be covered by UAE.

They have a good position with 2 in the top5, and it's a shame if they don't try anything and resign theemselves to just staying where they are.

 

[tigabara]

So, from stage 16, there's still hope for an exciting race, right? At least there's a glimmer of hope that Jonas can put up a fight on this stage, perhaps gaining a 1-2 minute, lead to continue the fight until stage 19?

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

So, from stage 16, there's still hope for an exciting race, right? At least there's a glimmer of hope that Jonas can put up a fight on this stage, perhaps gaining a 1-2 minute, lead to continue the fight until stage 19?

I tend to think of Vingegaard as the equivalent of a fairly strong 3 or 4 man breakaway on a flat stage. Keeps the winner honest in terms of having to make an effort, but unlikely to change the outcome.

 

[Earns1985]

Tactical plan for Visma:

• Send Van Aert and Campenaerts in the break. Not Jorgenson, because he's on the blacklist.
• S. Yates, Kuss and Jorgenson set a high pace on the Madeleine.
• Attack a few km before the top of the Madeleine.
• Van Aert and Campenaerts wait to set pace in the valley.
• Go full on the Col de la Loze.

Tactical plan for UAE:

• Stay calm. Let InterPolitt control the first hour with a moderate pace. Don't send anyone in the break.
• Let Wellens, Soler and Sivakov work in the valley to keep the gap with the break below five minutes.
• Let A. Yates and Narvaez stay with the leader as long as possible.
• Ride defensively. Wheelsuck until 5 km before the finish.
• If on a bad day: limit the damage. If on a good day: win the stage.

In this scenario, if Pogacar would have a really bad day and looses contact to Vingegaard on the Madeleine, he would loose the tour today.

More risk averse would be, that UAE also sends Soler or Sivakov in the break. If Pogacar would loose VIngegaard´s wheel on the Madeleine, he could use Soler and Sivakov in the valley before the last climb to come back or at least limit the loss.

 

[Boehmand]

Rodriguez DNS can actually change the dynamics of the stages today and tomorrow.

"Top 10" is a big goal for many teams, but because the gap to O'Connor is so big it means Arkea, Decathlon, Uno-X, EF and Total can feel secure in their top 10, and actually try to attack rather than riding defensively.

 

[topcat]

I'm getting the "I'm gone, I'm dead" feeling from most of the forumites. I'm excited.
Visma will grip it and rip it on Glandon, Vingo will attack on Madelaine.
No matter what happens, it promises to be an epic day on the forum.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

So far, the weather looks better than forecast, but we all know that can change quickly in the mountains.