IIf Pogacar loses 30-40 seconds on a hard MTF its a minor loss in his GC situation and changes nothing. Obviously a loss like this on Madeleine could grow later and become a problem. Thats why Vingo wants a long battle. No way to overcome this gap otherwise.
Exactly, and because they are riding de la Loze from the easy side, Madeleine is where Visma needs to put Pogacar under maximum pressure, they cannot wait for de la Loze.
That doesn't mean Vingegaard goes before de la Loze, but it means Visma needs to start cooking Pogacar already on Madeline, as preparation.
Ideally Vingegaard would create separation before the top of Madeleine and link up with a teammate or 2 over the top - but I don't think he can drop Pogacar already then (if at all).