Tour de France Tour de France 2026 route rumours

[YavorD]

I don't agree but we will probably see in 8 months if he is able to win the TdF

He probably won't. But that wouldn't be because of the Giro, but because Pogacar is just better.

Let's face it, Roglic will be 36 in the Giro and crashes out every other GT. Evenepoel is not competitive because of crashes in 50% of his GT's (and it's not 100% he will start), Del Toro was dropped by Ciccone in Burgos and twice by Gee in the Giro (yes, he may improve), Almeida isn't a rider who throws the kitchen sink, attacking left and right..
It is quite likely he doesn't have competition and wins the Giro easily.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Was it Algarve or PN where he got dropped by Almeida that makes you think that? Combloux and Hautacam. It seems like every time the road goes uphill, half the time he has a 'bad' day now?

Compared to 2022/2023, when he easily dropped anyone not named Pogacar in nearly every race, it's not hard to recognize that Vingegaard has struggled throughout 2025 relative to his usual level vs others. The trajectory this year points downward. He can change it and he needs to thats all I'll say..

Vingegaard was patchy this Tour. He was great in Ventoux and Peyreguades, also good on Madeleine while subpar in the Tt or Hautacam and average in La Plagne. Depending on his level he can lose a lot of time on stage 6 or maybe stay close to Pog. Its hard to be sure. I am more certain that Pog will annihilate the rest though. With Vingo its more like hit or miss.

 

[James M]

Vingegaard was patchy this Tour. He was great in Ventoux and Peyreguades, also good on Madeleine while subpar in the Tt or Hautacam and average in La Plagne. Depending on his level he can lose a lot of time on stage 6 or maybe stay close to Pog. Its hard to be sure. I am more certain that Pog will annihilate the rest though. With Vingo its more like hit or miss.

Whole year imo by his standards. Just so clear while I think hes declining vs some others I still think he will be the best of the rest next year too sure so in that sense sure Pogacar is certaintly more likely to annihilate the others more I agree. Doesnt mean I dont think Pogacar wont demolish him too whenever he wants.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Whole year imo by his standards. Just so clear while I think hes declining vs some others I still think he will be the best of the rest next year too sure so in that sense sure Pogacar is certaintly more likely to annihilate the others more I agree. Doesnt mean I dont think Pogacar wont demolish him too whenever he wants.

True, same can be said about Dauphine or Vuelta. Vingo cant beat Pog in a stage race if he doesnt improve his peak level as well as consistency. On a given day (like Tourmalet) the gap could be smaller or bigger though, who knows.

 

[Red Rick]

I take offense to the term "crashes out of" as it implies the active act of yeeting thyself off the bicycle whilst in fact it was the passive act of being taken out by different riders that ended the Giro.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I take offense to the term "crashes out of" as it implies the active act of yeeting thyself off the bicycle whilst in fact it was the passive act of being taken out by different riders that ended the Giro.

Stop with the reasoning, Rogla will be 36 in five days time, it's not about reasoning any more, it's wisdom now.

 

[Red Rick]

Stop with the reasoning, Rogla will be 36 in five days time, it's not about reasoning any more, it's wisdom now.

When everybody puts tomato in their fruit salad and gets sick, Primoz will finally win le Tour

 

[Escarabajo]

Finally, they got bored of Pogacar winning so easily. LOL.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Finally, they got bored of Pogacar winning so easily. LOL.

Excluding the finale above Gavarnie could sting the organizers in *** if Pogi decides stage 6 is the D-day.

 

[HashRouge]

Well I hope it kicks off big time on the Tourmalet, because I've just booked accommodation in La Mongie. Have to say, I'm looking forward to not having to walk up the climb from the bottom for once.

 

[Red Rick]

Excluding the finale above Gavarnie could sting the organizers in *** if Pogi decides stage 6 is the D-day.

Why would that stop Pogacar. It would make no difference to attacking on Tourmalet. Vingegaard went balls to the wall in a scenario that was more similar to going above Gavarnie.

 

[Netserk]

Well I hope it kicks off big time on the Tourmalet, because I've just booked accommodation in La Mongie. Have to say, I'm looking forward to not having to walk up the climb from the bottom for once.

KelderGOAT won't let you down!

 

[Bavarianrider]

⚰️⚰️⚰️⚰️

 

[Pogacsa]

Can anyone explain why Letour.fr is incapable of uploading profiles for stage 6 and stage 15 onto the website, despite them featuring in the video that they played at the presentation?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Why would that stop Pogacar. It would make no difference to attacking on Tourmalet. Vingegaard went balls to the wall in a scenario that was more similar to going above Gavarnie.

With a few difficult kms at the end Pogacar would likely be content with a late attack putting some smaller time on his rivals (it's still early in the race). In this case he may be tempted to do more damage (as there's no chance to make the difference at the end). We both know there's a reason why the longest GT action is on stages with a big penultimate climb (not too far from the finish) and a meh final climb.

As for Vingegaard in 2023 he was encouraged by Pogacar's unexpected weakness on an easier stage the day before and it's clear that Visma wanted to end the race on that day (with the help of Wout) hoping Pog would totally crumble.

 

[Red Rick]

With a few difficult kms at the end Pogacar would likely be content with a late attack putting some smaller time on his rivals (it's still early in the race). In this case he may be tempted to do more damage (as there's no chance to make the difference at the end). We both know there's a reason why the longest GT action is on stages with a big penultimate climb (not too far from the finish) and a meh final climb.

As for Vingegaard in 2023 he was encouraged by Pogacar's unexpected weakness on an easier stage the day before and it's clear that Visma wanted to end the race on that day (with the help of Wout) hoping Pog would totally crumble.

Closest comparison for Pogacar is the 2021 Tour, when he took the very first opportunity to bury the entire race.

That said, I can see also the reasons not to do it because you don't really want to run into a counter. It could actually come down to the 2 together slightly below max effort and then just choosing to secure the top 2 spots already.

In that case, we will have Evenepoel hand gestures for the ages.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Closest comparison for Pogacar is the 2021 Tour, when he took the very first opportunity to bury the entire race.

That said, I can see also the reasons not to do it because you don't really want to run into a counter. It could actually come down to the 2 together slightly below max effort and then just choosing to secure the top 2 spots already.

In that case, we will have Evenepoel hand gestures for the ages.

Yes, it's also an option. if Vingo is strong enough to match Pog they could cooperate to get rid of the remaining rivals early in the race.

 

[Sciatic]

Aside from the racing, for scenery aficionados Gavarnie is among the greatest, though the stage will finish short of the uppermost part of the valley.

 

[Ulle97]

Very disappointed with the Tour route this year.
I feel no matter what route they come up with that Pog will still win anyway.
However, the only terrain that Pogačar can lose time on is actually the ITT to Remco. It is baffling that they didn't put in more ITT kms to at least put him on the back foot and perhaps have Remco in the yellow jersey after week 1.
The current route appears to have created a situation where neither Remco nor Jonas want to compete in and they now are assessing the other tours instead.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Very disappointed with the Tour route this year.
I feel no matter what route they come up with that Pog will still win anyway.
However, the only terrain that Pogačar can lose time on is actually the ITT to Remco. It is baffling that they didn't put in more ITT kms to at least put him on the back foot and perhaps have Remco in the yellow jersey after week 1.
The current route appears to have created a situation where neither Remco nor Jonas want to compete in and they now are assessing the other tours instead.

Firstly, Pogacar only had a rival, that's Vingegaard. Since Pogacar became a better climber than Vingegaard, there is no route able to give us another winner outside of Pogacar.
Remco gained 0.5 s/km in 2 TTs in the TdF. Even if he starts gaining 1.5 s/km, he still loses 10-12 s/km in the mountains.

 

[houtdffan]

Firstly, Pogacar only had a rival, that's Vingegaard. Since Pogacar became a better climber than Vingegaard, there is no route able to give us another winner outside of Pogacar.
Remco gained 0.5 s/km in 2 TTs in the TdF. Even if he starts gaining 1.5 s/km, he still loses 10-12 s/km in the mountains.

What you deliberately omit is Remco was injured during this years TDF

 

[Peyroteo94]

What you deliberately omit is Remco was injured during this years TDF

I didn't even mention a specific year...

But let's take a look in 2024. Remco's best performance in GTs. Fortunately Pogacar was there to compare.

Stage 4 (Galibier) - lost 15" in 850m

Stage 14 - Pogacar gained 1'10" in 4.9 km. This is 14,3"/km

Stage 15 - 2'51" in 10.8 km. 15.8"/km

Stage 19 - 1'42" in 9.6 km. 10.62"/km

Stage 20 - 53" in 5 km. 10.6"/km (Pogacar didn't go full gas)

5 High mountain stages, in all of them he lost more than 10"/km.

 

[Netserk]

Very disappointed with the Tour route this year.
I feel no matter what route they come up with that Pog will still win anyway.
However, the only terrain that Pogačar can lose time on is actually the ITT to Remco. It is baffling that they didn't put in more ITT kms to at least put him on the back foot and perhaps have Remco in the yellow jersey after week 1.
The current route appears to have created a situation where neither Remco nor Jonas want to compete in and they now are assessing the other tours instead.

I don't think we'll see long ITTs before Evenepoel shows that he is a credible threat.

We're now on a streak of 5 years of the Pogi/Vingegaard duopoly, so it's with that matchup in mind. TTT and ITT of next year help make that battle closer. If (big if) Vingegaard has the shape to challenge Pogi next year, then the route is good for him.

As such, I don't think it's a good route for Pogi, insofar as there exists any realistic route that isn't good for him.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

I didn't even mention a specific year...

But let's take a look in 2024. Remco's best performance in GTs. Fortunately Pogacar was there to compare.

Stage 4 (Galibier) - lost 15" in 850m

Stage 14 - Pogacar gained 1'10" in 4.9 km. This is 14,3"/km

Stage 15 - 2'51" in 10.8 km. 15.8"/km

Stage 19 - 1'42" in 9.6 km. 10.62"/km

Stage 20 - 53" in 5 km. 10.6"/km (Pogacar didn't go full gas)

5 High mountain stages, in all of them he lost more than 10"/km.

It’s a bit creative to only count the kilometers after the separation. One could for example also say that on Galibier stage he lost 15” in 22 kilometers.

 

[Peyroteo94]

It’s a bit creative to only count the kilometers after the separation. One could for example also say that on Galibier stage he lost 15” in 22 kilometers.

That's so stupid IMO...
You put a MTT on Galibier and I'm pretty sure Remco loses way more than 18" in 22 km.