Tour De France Contenders - who has a shot?

[auscyclefan94]

So far, assuming nobody gets banned, I have as podium contenders:

Contador
Evans
A. Shleck
F. Shleck
Valverde
Van den Broeck
Leipheimer
Wiggins
Menchov
J. Rodriguez...maybe
S. Sanchez...maybe

Anyone else? That's a lot of guys shooting for the podium.

Well firstly, if Alberto rides then I think the contenders list closes down. I will first suggest my list of podium contenders if Alberto does not ride.

Evans
Leipheimer
Wiggins
Menchov
Sanchez
Nibali
A Schleck
VDB

If Alberto does ride then

Contador
Evans
Menchov
Wiggins
Sanchez

I think Valverde is still going to need a while to get use to the Grand Tours again due to being out of the sport for a long time and coming back to a tough 3 week GT will be hard for him.

 

[42x16ss]

Wiggins is only going to podium in the Tour if all the main contenders crash.

Wiggins would also need Cavendish to crash out as well.

 

[42x16ss]

Well firstly, if Alberto rides then I think the contenders list closes down. I will first suggest my list of podium contenders if Alberto does not ride.

Evans
Leipheimer
Wiggins
Menchov
Sanchez
Nibali
A Schleck
VDB

If Alberto does ride then

Contador
Evans
Menchov
Wiggins
Sanchez

I think Valverde is still going to need a while to get use to the Grand Tours again due to being out of the sport for a long time and coming back to a tough 3 week GT will be hard for him.

The podium will be something like this:

1st: Contador (if cleared)

~ 5mins

2nd - 5th: Evans, Menchov, Sanchez, A Schleck. Order too close to tell.

 

[Afrank]

Christian Vande Velde is aiming for a top 5, I doubt he will get it, maybe top 20 or 15.

For an outside chance how about (assuming his team gets a invite) Thomas Voeckler, he attacks on multiple stages, getting in breaks, taking more time out of the GC contenders, builds up a 6+ minute lead (I am joking of course ).

 

[phanatic]

For an outside chance how about (assuming his team gets a invite) Andy Schleck, he attacks on multiple stages, getting in breaks, taking more time out of the GC contenders, builds up a 6+ minute lead (I am joking of course ).

hmm interesting

 

[Archibald]

How are the following riders rated above Samuel Sanchez?

F. Shleck
Valverde
Van den Broeck
Leipheimer

Not sure exactly as I reckon he's got a better TT than 3 of them and can match if not better them in the mountains.
Pity there's no downhill TT, which is how Samu could win the Tour

 

[Dancing On The Pedals]

Gesink's problem won't be the TT - I remember the debate roughly this time last year about his TT and then he won the TT at Oman and did well in a TT at Tirreno Adriatico. His main concern will be staying upright on the bike for 3 weeks (and we don't know how he will have recovered from his leg break). Provided all goes well for him though, he is definitely a top 10 contender, although the podium might be a little beyond him.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Going by their records and consistency these would be my top picks for the podium

Contador
Andy Schleck
Evans
Samuel Sanchez
Menchov

In order.

Outside chances could include Cobo and VandeVelde. And like 15 others.

 

[uphillstruggle]

when did wiggo become a top 3 dog? I mean if were gonna mention wiggo, surely we mention others also. I mean menchov for example has won a few GTs

Wiggo couldn't keep up with poels, cobo, froome etc. Yet he is gonna take on the best climbers in the world in peak form.

I agree. Personally I think he will crack big time on the Bagnères-de-Luchon stage. For all the criticism of the mountain stages this year that's a brutal stage and Wiggins suffers on big/very hard mountain stages. He will still place well though as others all ways crack too and he will make up big time in he time trials against the climbers.

I think writing off AS so easily is a mistake. Not saying he will win but those claiming that he won't get close may well be proved wrong. If you think back to 2010 he and AC were riding away from the other contenders at will putting minutes into the others on climbs. On the other hand, perhaps cycling has changed for the better.

 

[orangerider]

Wiggins being acclaimed too much. Levi has a far better podium chance as he climbs way better and tts just a tad slower but highly consistent. Esp now levi is free to fly he will be one to look out for.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Wiggins being acclaimed too much. Levi has a far better podium chance as he climbs way better and tts just a tad slower but highly consistent. Esp now levi is free to fly he will be one to look out for.

Leipheimer will peak for the ToC.

 

[CraZyCaLL]

So far, assuming nobody gets banned, I have as podium contenders:
...
J. Rodriguez...maybe
...

JRod will ride Giro+Vuelta in 2012, like last year

 

[theyoungest]

This is a fair point. I do think though, when we see steady high-tempo climbing, Gesink can get into a bit of trouble.

That's actually when we won't be seeing him get into trouble

Changes of pace, that's what he can't handle. I don't see him as a contender for this year's Tour BTW. None of the Rabo boys, actually.

if F.Schleck, A.Schleck, Vandenbroeck and Rodriguez are mentioned than sure as **** add Gesink

It's just ridiculous to rate him equally to Andy and Frank, even for this time trial oriented Tour. Same goes for VDB2 though.

 

[Sofía_]

another hit-on-the-schlecks thread, this is getting bored

 

[CatDogQQ]

we know that on tour will be 100 km itt
sooo i think that andy and frank will be only in top 10
1. Conta
2. Evans
3. Wiggo
4. Levi
5. Valverde
6. Van der Broeck
7. A. Schleck
8. Sanchez
9. Nibali
10. f. Schleck

 

[movingtarget]

err it's not like BMC have a great team in regards to GC and mountain support. Many teams have better.

They have a superb classic team, but that hardly applies to the tour.

ps. I think Gesink on form is more then an outside chance, at the very least on par with JVDB.

Where was Saxo's support for Contador in the Giro and the TDF ? Evan's got by without strong support in the mountains last year. But BMC were outstanding on the flat/medium stages and on the lower slopes of mountain stages. I think mountain support is overrated for good climbers unless the climb is not very steep. R/Shack are the exception but I can't see one of their riders winning the race and are Kloden and Horner going to be there with the best climbers over three weeks ? Trouble for them is that their best two climbers can't ride a good TT so they have to play the tactical games as it's their only chance to get someone on the podium but this year I can's see it happening with the race route being what it is.

 

[hatcher]

when did wiggo become a top 3 dog? I mean if were gonna mention wiggo, surely we mention others also. I mean menchov for example has won a few GTs

Wiggo couldn't keep up with poels, cobo, froome etc. Yet he is gonna take on the best climbers in the world in peak form.

Couldn't keep up with Poels? Seriously? Maybe if the Vuelta was actually only one stage. Wiggins then beat Poels up Peña Cabarga two days later, but so what?

For all the value your point has, you may as well say Anton, Nibali, Mollema, JRod etc couldn't keep up with Poels, and Wiggins.

And then, unbelievably, you say he won't keep up with "the best climbers in peak form", as though Wiggins was in peak form at the Vuelta (and Dauphine).

Talk about twisting facts to fit your conclusion.

 

[theyoungest]

Couldn't keep up with Poels? Seriously? Maybe if the Vuelta was actually only one stage. Wiggins then beat Poels up Peña Cabarga two days later, but so what?

For all the value your point has, you may as well say Anton, Nibali, Mollema, JRod etc couldn't keep up with Poels, and Wiggins.

And then, unbelievably, you say he won't keep up with "the best climbers in peak form", as though Wiggins was in peak form at the Vuelta (and Dauphine).

Talk about twisting facts to fit your conclusion.

The best climbers would be Andy Schleck and Contador. Neither of them were there in those two races.

None of the contenders was in peak form in the Dauphiné... still quite a few of them were climbing better than Wiggo.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Wiggins was pretty close to his peak form, IMO. No offense to the Brits on here.

 

[hatcher]

The best climbers would be Andy Schleck and Contador. Neither of them were there in those two races.

None of the contenders was in peak form in the Dauphiné... still quite a few of them were climbing better than Wiggo.

I didn't, and wouldn't for a second suggest Wiggins is a Schleck/Contador level climber, I just think it ridiculous to imply that Wiggins was in peak form at the Vuelta, as he quite clearly wasn't.

It's even more ridiculous to say Wiggins couldn't/didn't keep up with Poels.

At the Dauphine Wiggins did out climb the likes of Evans and Sanchez, but I wouldn't present that as meaningful as we don't know where each of them were relative to their peak (clearly Sanchez was way off).

 

[hatcher]

Wiggins was pretty close to his peak form, IMO. No offense to the Brits on here.

Wiggins in anything close to peak form doesn't lose 23 seconds to Froome in a 47km TT, and doesn't only beat Phinney by 11, Fuglsang by 15, etc.

 

[Zoncolan]

1. Contador
2. Evans
3. Menchov
4. A. Schleck

Anyone else winning would be a huge surprise for me.

 

[Kvinto]

Wiggins was NOT in his peak in the Vuelta, but as for his (or Froomie's) Tour chances, Vuelta did not have anything similar to:

or

Both stages with about 5000m of climbing, and it rarely happens in the Tour.

 

[cineteq]

we know that on tour will be 100 km itt
sooo i think that andy and frank will be only in top 10
1. Conta
2. Evans
3. Wiggo
4. Levi
5. Valverde
6. Van der Broeck
7. A. Schleck
8. Sanchez
9. Nibali
10. f. Schleck

If you mention 100km TT, then you have to mention Kloeden and Menchov...Again VDB, F. Schleck are there and not Gesink?

 

[Zam_Olyas]

We all know the course and how can the pope be left out.