Tour De France Contenders - who has a shot?

[El Pistolero]

Have a little Jonathan Hivert / Tommy Voeckler moment
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_JOwg8shJc

I loved that stage lol. A bit of cyclo-cross wouldn't harm the Tour. If I wasn't a historian I'd even suggest creating a world cup cyclo-cross event at those ruins

 

[Fetisoff]

A criminal misuse of the terrain and a ttt for the first stage back in France.

I feel like crying

Stage 4 is gonna be a TTT??? Really?

 

[The Hitch]

If I wasn't a historian

Yeah, cos when your in your first year of a undergraduate course at your local university, theres no turning back

 

[El Pistolero]

Yeah, cos when your in your first year of a undergraduate course at your local university, its too late to change

Erm, doing my master in October

Education level at this "local" university is way higher than the average in Europe by the way. I've been to Erasmus in Istanbul, what a ****ing joke that was! One of the professors said Roman empire had long distance trade with China at 1500 BC lol.

 

[Fetisoff]

I loved that stage lol. A bit of cyclo-cross wouldn't harm the Tour. If I wasn't a historian I'd even suggest creating a world cup cyclo-cross event at those ruins

Meh, I'm sure we could find some other ruins to run a cyclo-cross race at. Maybe Greece could rent a few out, solve some of their problems.

I guess we're getting quite far off topic though, wasn't this turning into a Cav-bashing thread??? Oh wait... oh shi......

 

[The Hitch]

Erm, doing my master in October

Education level at this "local" university is way higher than the average in Europe by the way. I've been to Erasmus in Istanbul, what a ****ing joke that was! One of the professors said Roman empire had long distance trade with China at 1500 BC lol.

Hang on a sec. Your 20 years old yet youve done a 3 year course + 1 year erasmus?

 

[Granville57]

So far, assuming nobody gets banned, I have as podium contenders:...

If we're talking contenders for just one of the three steps...

I don't know if he's been mentioned yet but he probably hasn't, so I will.

Christian Vande Velde has a "shot" at one of those steps. Once he completes the Giro unscathed he will be primed and ready. I've been predicting this since I first joined this tree fort. Given this year's TdF course, I'd say say this is his best chance.

As I've said before, he's a better climber that most TT specialists, and he's a better TTer than most pure climbers. That means he has "a shot." It also means I must now bump my Garmin thread...

 

[The Hitch]

Would be great if CVV could bring it, as hed take minutes from some of the contenders in the tts, but does he still have it at 35 ?

Some riders do, some don't

 

[42x16ss]

Would be great if CVV could bring it, as hed take minutes from some of the contenders in the tts, but does he still have it at 35 ?

Some riders do, some don't

If CVV can find his 2008/09 form he'd be a top 5 contender, however I see him finishing around 7-15. Slightly better than last year.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

I don't see it in VdV, Granville. I just don't. He's a solid rider, but it would be a huge achievement for him to crack Top 10.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

If CVV can find his 2008/09 form he'd be a top 5 contender, however I see him finishing around 7-15. Slightly better than last year.

I just don't see it...

 

[gustienordic]

I just don't see it...

Plus he has some of the worst luck of anyone in pro cycling...

 

[the3verB]

Voeckler. I think he will Top5 again!
He will probably gain time in the first week( on riders like Menchov, Wiggins, Contador, Kloden,...) and in the mountains, there is nô reason hé do worst than last year.

 

[maltiv]

Voeckler. I think he will Top5 again!
He will probably gain time in the first week( on riders like Menchov, Wiggins, Contador, Kloden,...) and in the mountains, there is nô reason hé do worst than last year.

This time an in-shape Contador will be there (probably) so won't be no soft-pedaling up the mountains. Voeckler will quickly realize that it's harder to counter a real Contador attack than to counter a Schleck brother who's looking backwards during the entirety of the 5 second "attack".

 

[Havetts]

Plus Voeckler won't be having a headstart of 3+ minutes.

 

[theyoungest]

And most importantly, he probably won't have the maillot jaune on his shoulders. That makes the proud Frenchie ride 5 km/h faster.

 

[Benotti69]

Could Riblon have a chance of top 5? If he has the form of last year and Voekler is not top 10 by the first mountains then he may be team leader and stand a chance.

 

[theyoungest]

Could Riblon have a chance of top 5? If he has the form of last year and Voekler is not top 10 by the first mountains then he may be team leader and stand a chance.

Surely you mean Rolland?

 

[movingtarget]

Plus he has some of the worst luck of anyone in pro cycling...

I was glad that CVV and Danielson had decent rides in the 2011 TDF and for CVV also in the Colorado Tour. Both have had chequered histories with falls and illness. Two other riders I would like to see have more luck in this year's race are Gesink and VDB. I don't see any of these guys making the podium but I still wish them well. I agree with what someone previously said. It will be better for Schleck if Contador is in the race because he will always react to Contador and won't be tempted to sit back. Plus Bruyneel will be there to play the puppetmaster. Like him or loathe him, I think he will be good for Andy Schleck.

 

[Kwibus]

Wiggins was NOT in his peak in the Vuelta, but as for his (or Froomie's) Tour chances, Vuelta did not have anything similar to:

or

Both stages with about 5000m of climbing, and it rarely happens in the Tour.

Both stages are the only chance for the real climbers to put in some minutes.
Allthough both not very long I suggest that their teams ride hard on the first climb and the climbers have to start their attacks on the 2nd climb. I haven't looked into the profile much, but there doesn't seem to be much flat in between the climbs where other teams let their teammates close the gaps.
The real climbers should be able to outclimb the TT guys on a course that goes up and down all the time.

Well I certainly hope this happens. I predict it might only happen on 1 stage though.

 

[Kwibus]

Saxo: Contador (if rides)
BMC: Evans
Katusha: Menchov
Sky: Wiggins, Froome
Nissan: A Schleck, Horner, Kloeden
OPQS: Leiphaimer, Velits, Martin
Lotto: JVDB
Rabobank: Gesink, Mollema, Kruijswijk
Europcar: Rolland, Voeckler
Astana: Brajkovic, Vinokourov
Movistar: Cobo, Valverde
Liquigas: Nibali
Euskatel: Sanchez

This is TOP 20.

10 of them will make it the others will crash out

 

[Angliru]

This time an in-shape Contador will be there (probably) so won't be no soft-pedaling up the mountains. Voeckler will quickly realize that it's harder to counter a real Contador attack than to counter a Schleck brother who's looking backwards during the entirety of the 5 second "attack".

Take a look at the quote in my signature. Voeckler knows.

 

[airstream]

Aspin matches badly for an early raid. Evans would fight off all attacks as a piece of cake. Tourmalet is 100km from the finish. That's why it's going to happen at La Toussuire stage or never, I think.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

10 of them will make it the others will crash out

More like 5 of them will make it, the rest will crash out, 5 others will be the 'suprises'. Much like the way Cunego and Tom Danielson top 10-ed last year.

 

[Kvinto]

Both stages are the only chance for the real climbers to put in some minutes.
Allthough both not very long I suggest that their teams ride hard on the first climb and the climbers have to start their attacks on the 2nd climb. I haven't looked into the profile much, but there doesn't seem to be much flat in between the climbs where other teams let their teammates close the gaps.
The real climbers should be able to outclimb the TT guys on a course that goes up and down all the time.

Well I certainly hope this happens. I predict it might only happen on 1 stage though.

These 2 stages are stages with the biggest amount of climbing in the Tour 2012, and very likely the the most 'climbing' Tour stages in recent years. But on the other hand you should also count on at least Belles Filles (#7) and Peyragudes (#17). I don't have much faith in Colombier-Richemond stage (#10) (Colombier from that side is 18.3km-6.9% with steepest part at its bottom while Richemond doesn't look steep at all and in the end La Toussuire is scheduled on the next day) but even apart from it there will be puncheurs' stages where you should at least look out. Stage 1 should end on the 2.5km hill (though it is yet to reveal what is this hill). Stage 3 should have several steep hills and short uphill finish. Stage 8 another puncheurs' stage, several ascents where you can lose rather than win. Even awfully designed stage 12 doesn't look flat at the finish. And in the end taking into account that Arc-et-Senans tt should not be flat i really expect the Tour to be the most interesting GT of 2012.