Tour De France Contenders - who has a shot?

[Kvinto]

Good route doesn't guarantee exciting racing while bad route almost certainly guarantee crap.

if in 2009 the Tour route was not crap, we maybe would have never got to see the action on Verbier

 

[guncha]

Why does Menchov keeps getting forgotten. Time and time again. Not just by you by everyone. Is he invisible or something.

Menchov is good bet. His Giro win was impressive. But he was in lower league in comparison to AS and AC in TDF 2010.

 

[guncha]

if in 2009 the Tour route was not crap, we maybe would have never got to see the action on Verbier

IMHO, TDF 09 was crap. The question is if TDF 12 will be worse.

 

[Kvinto]

IMHO, TDF 09 was crap. The question is if TDF 12 will be worse.

In my view if the route is not good enough it forces riders to either take a risk on easier stages or give up. I hope they’ll choose the first option

 

[guncha]

In my view if the route is not good enough it forces riders to either take a risk on easier stages or give up. I hope they’ll choose the first option

Or to choose to ride for 2nd/3rd place.

 

[Kvinto]

Or to choose to ride for 2nd/3rd place.

IMO riding for the 2nd/3rd place from the start of race actually means to give up

 

[The Hitch]

Menchov is good bet. His Giro win was impressive. But he was in lower league in comparison to AS and AC in TDF 2010.

Well if Menchov was in a lower league, what would Cobo and Nibali have been

 

[guncha]

Well if Menchov was in a lower league, what would Cobo and Nibali have been

I was referring to TDF 2010 only.
I would be interesting to see Nibali TDF as he hasn't ridden TDF since 2009.
I haven't followed Cobo's career though. But I've got a feeling his results in GTs were unstable.

 

[greenedge]

Who has a shot?
Team Nissan whatever they're called, the Hogs hovel if you ask me, have one chance. Andy Schleck. Also, the team has no O'Grady this year or a Hincapie as road captain. They will lose out because of this. Big loss people aren't considering. Why you ask? Mentally and in terms of enforcing themselves and the team on the road, these guys are pushovers. Hence nicknames like Bottle.

Last years Tour showed many things. Heck so did the Giro and Vuelta. Wigans is only a threat to Cobo and Froome. Real threat those three are! Wigans might get near 5th if all his stars align and his wife throws glass shards under the tyres of his rivals. The Vuelta's top 3 profited from a race where the suspected podium getters were worn out from the Giro. Nobody who races the Giro will feature for GC at the Tour. Nobody. Can't be done. So we look at the last few competitive GT's for form.

Thus it's pretty clear. Only a handful had form and raced hard and got results because of it. They're the same as always. One standout. Another two or three fighting for second fiddle and a few behing them making the podium and top 5. Half the names mentioned by people repeatedly in droves DO NOT qualify. They never have.

As I see it. Contador is a world ahead. Evans is next. If he comes into the Tour in last years form, he is the only guy who can possibly beat Contador. Assuming AC is present and has the form but also has hiccups like last year then Cadel could beat him. In Giro 2011 form, not even Cadel can be Contador. If not present, Evans is the guy to beat. Everyone else was too knackered last year to go with him. On two major climbs Evans set the pace and no rival went past him. They couldn't. The Schleck's couldn't beat him in the mountains...that says enough.

Who else? Menchov is good. Basso and Nibali are also not too bad. Nibali was one of the few riders who tried to race Contador in the Giro. Scarponi did as well, but learn he couldn't do it quickly and hence stopped forcing a pace he couldn't sustain. Assuming Liquigas give the Tour a serious go (hasn't happened in a long time) then one of these two could foreseeably finish with Menchov and make the podium. I still rank Samu and Valverde with these guys, more notably they are on par with Menchov. These guys given preparation and no accidents or dilemmas (there always are) will in theory be fighting for third to seventh. The racing strategy of these men will dictate how well the Schleck's go. I can see them coming 3rd and 5th if the team is lucky. Real lucky. As I said, Bruyneel needs to man up and draw a line in the sand and tell Andy to get a big win first, then go for broke with the team at the Tour. It won't happen.

Wigans did appear to have good form prior to last years Tour and The Shack talked a lot of smack before everyone but Bottle pulled out. They are proof things don't go to plan. Gesink? Let him finish the damn race people without a hinder. Sick and tired of people talking him up and then the inevitable crash that becomes an excuse. He doesn't deserve the pressure. Let him go unhindered and let's see what he can do before we go making declarations of his awesomeness. Astana? Stage hunting.

Consistency is what counts. AC and Evans have it. Menchov does when his head is right. When it isn't he sucks. IMO in 2010, minus a broken arm, Evans would have podiumed, hence his better form last year prior to the Tour and his result wasn't a shock. It was a given. The rider to beat is always consistent. 7-10 days into last years Tour, that was Evans alone. No one else matched his consistency. Same with the Giro. It'll be the same this year. The winner will be obvious by half-way through the race barring some catastrophe.

Personally I want to see Contador, Evans and Valverde on the podium. Best three GC riders going around IMO. Race all year and race hard. They are what cycling needs. Hope they get the results. Long time out though...so we'll see.

Valverde might not be the best at the moment ( doping ban for two years, might set someone back half a year ). He does however race to win everywhere, which is good. In my view the spot for 3rd will be fought out between; Samu, Shleck, Menchov and Wiggins. If it is aggressive i can see Samu/ Andy taking that spot, if not Wiggins/ Menchov.
Astana i think could get Janez Brajkovic to go well ( top 5 or so ). I think they could have a spell in the yellow jersey as well if Vino can animate the race. I think Wiggins could beat his top 4 position in ( 09 ) which he achieved with less ITT km. The TDF route also suits him more than the Vuelta ( and last year he had good form before the TDF ). I'm glad you agree that in 2010 Evans would have gone well without the broken arm. Gessink has an able support cast ( so even if he does crash out again Kruijswijk could still go well on GC ).
Shlecks' team now though does have Popovych and Kloden. Along with Cancellara and Voigt they can probably be his road captains so O'Gradys' loss is not that bad.

 

[greenedge]

Or to choose to ride for 2nd/3rd place.

If Andy chooses that he will end up finishing 5th. To even finish 3rd he has to believe he can finish 1st and attack.

 

[theyoungest]

I never understood why a guy that has won Liege in style isn't suited to hills and isn't punchy enough

That has more to do with the general toughness of the race. Andy has great recovery.

 

[movingtarget]

Why does Menchov keeps getting forgotten. Time and time again. Not just by you by everyone. Is he invisible or something.

Also the Nibali hype is sometimes a bit frustrating. I love the guy, one of my favourite cyclists, but when he keeps getting ranked by almost everyone as a more likely tdf contender then Menchov and Sanchez, it gets a bit boring after a while. And his name doesnt belong in a best gt riders list ahead of Menchov

Yes, it is strange. One of the betting agency's has Menchov at 50-1 to win the TDF. Wiggins at 9-1 ! With every other GC contender including Tony Martin, ahead of Menchov. Menchov had problems with illness last year but if he can regain his old form he has a real chance of making the podium. I would rank Sanchez slightly behind him. Menchov knows what it takes to win a grand tour and even though some people find him to dull to watch, he is a smart rider and knows his limitations and how to dose his efforts. I have picked him to finish third.

 

[movingtarget]

Menchov is good bet. His Giro win was impressive. But he was in lower league in comparison to AS and AC in TDF 2010.

Not by much. Nibali has not impressed me since 2010 Giro and Vuelta. I can't see any of the Italians making the podium. The TTs will be a problem against some of the other GC contenders. Maybe not as a big a disadvantage as for the Schlecks but they will have to make time in the mountains and I can't see that happening against the best riders or not enough to matter.

 

[theyoungest]

Menchov is good bet. His Giro win was impressive. But he was in lower league in comparison to AS and AC in TDF 2010.

Yes, but in 2010 I don't think Cadel Evans would have kept up with those two either.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Yes, but in 2010 I don't think Cadel Evans would have kept up with those two either.

ya I agree.

I thin it could be the same this year maybe, we'll see.

 

[airstream]

Why does Menchov keeps getting forgotten. Time and time again. Not just by you by everyone. Is he invisible or something.

For the same reason why Schleck is underrated, because the latest impression is the strongest. Anyway he is not exceptional time trialist, just very good and even not always. All his victories were taken with rather conservative riding in the mountains. Many many factors should match so that Menchov hits podium. I don't rank him highly either.

 

[theyoungest]

For the same reason why Schleck is underrated, because the latest impression is the strongest. Anyway he is not exceptional time trialist, just very good and even not always. All his victories were taken with rather conservative riding in the mountains. Many many factors should match so that Menchov hits podium. I don't rank him highly either.

Menchov is an exceptional time trialist. But not always, like you say.

That Sestri Levante TT, or the final TT in the Tour 2010... those were exceptional, not just very good.

 

[airstream]

Menchov is an exceptional time trialist. But not always, like you say.

That Sestri Levante TT, or the final TT in the Tour 2010... those were exceptional, not just very good.

How do you estimate probability that he'll give 2 Sestri Levante in the Tour or at least beat all the contenders in 2 TT's?

 

[theyoungest]

How do you estimate probability that he'll give 2 Sestri Levante in the Tour or at least beat all the contenders in 2 TT's?

He almost did in the Giro, if he didn't crash in the second one. If on form and motivated (granted, big ifs for Menchov) I wouldn't rate him lower than Evans.

 

[movingtarget]

How do you estimate probability that he'll give 2 Sestri Levante in the Tour or at least beat all the contenders in 2 TT's?

Well he won't beat Tony Martin but he will beat the majority of the GC contenders if he is in form. Contador, Evans, Leipheimer and Wiggins........maybe not. It depends on which Menchov arrives at the start line.

 

[just some guy]

it appears not AC for this years TDF

 

[cineteq]

it appears not AC for this years TDF

Hmmm.....

 

[The Hitch]

it appears not AC for this years TDF

Do feel free to explain this.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Do feel free to explain this.

There are rumors of a one-year ban.

 

[jens_attacks]

well here's your evidence hitch:

cadel has a pervert smile right there,cobo is worried about what alberto is telling and the radioshack guy in the back is laughing.